Tokyo Osaka

The bull flag has been established. The stop loss for long positions is set below the bull flag pattern.
Target 7w#MtGox钱包动态 $BTC

What's going on? DeFi revolution? #杰克逊霍尔年会 $ETH

There are probably two trends here. The blue line and the red line are both areas with dense long orders. There is a high probability that they will fall below their stop loss and then rise. I prefer the latter trend. $BTC

In order to avoid missing out, I opened 5,000 USD BTC
#美国政府转移BTC $BTC
Note: This is purely a personal behavior. You can only trust yourself in the trading market.

BTC is trending strongly, but if it falls without volume, everything will be in vain $BTC
Don’t buy at the bottom
At least wait for volume to increase before buying at the bottom. Remember this

The U.S. employment data in July was disturbed by the hurricane, and the real situation may not be as bad as the data released. A similar situation occurred in 2003. From June to August of that year, the United States encountered multiple strong hurricanes that made landfall. The "Sam Rule" was triggered for a time, but it was later proven that the economy did not decline. In addition, we sorted out and compared the performance of new non-agricultural employment when the "Sam Rule" was first triggered, and found that the current data is significantly better. This reflects the logic we have reminded many times before: a large number of illegal immigrants are flowing in. Income has caused a job crowding-out effect on residents of the United States, causing unemployment data to be distorted to a certain extent. In addition, high-frequency indicators also show that the U.S. economy and employment have not deteriorated significantly recently. For example: as of the end of July, the unemployment rate for people holding unemployment insurance remained at a low of 1.2%, and has not increased since the beginning of the year; the weekly economic index ( WEI ) was 2.0%, above the year-to-date average of 1.8%. Therefore, although the weakening employment situation in the United States is an objective fact, it is not yet enough to conclude that the U.S. economy has experienced a recession, and it is still necessary to observe the performance of more subsequent data.
This employment data has greatly intensified the market's recession concerns. Until this concern is falsified, market risk appetite remains risk-off, and "recession trading" will most likely continue. The baseline scenario is: global stock markets and commodities Other risk assets are under pressure, the U.S. dollar index and U.S. bond yields are falling, and gold is relatively strong. However, if subsequent data confirms that the economy is not in recession, asset prices are expected to undergo a sharp correction. $BTC
#美国7月非农就业增长放缓

The US triggered a recession warning similar to the black swan during the epidemic. It was due to objective reasons that funds began to sell US stocks for risk aversion and buy gold and bonds.
The Federal Reserve will start to print money and cut interest rates to stabilize the economy and boost the capital market. This will cause the principal protection funds to flow back to the stock market.
Comrades, we have come to the eve of dawn, and we are waiting. #美国7月非农就业增长放缓 $BTC

Suspected large number of sell orders appeared, the market continued to fall $BTC
$ETH

I bought some BTC spot last night $BTC
Short-term volatility is still the main trend, so I picked up relatively cheap chips

Grayscale's situation today, a new ETF application model for BTC is based on ETH's miniETH and charges 0.15%. It may start to flow back to buy BTC. #美国政府转移BTC $BTC
Looking at Ethereum, it is worth noting that it seems that only 60,000 were sold today, and usually around 100,000 were sold. In Grayscale's composition, there are 400,000 ethmini, and ethethe is about 2.1 million eth. It was originally 2.98 million, and half of it flowed out to 1.5 million. It is estimated that it will take more than a week at this rate. #美国以太坊现货ETF开始交易 $ETH

This is a poll of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. These three are swing states with direct absolute results. The first two are currently tied, and Michigan has a win or loss.
So if these three swing states are still deadlocked, the US stock market will continue to fall before the election. Reviewing every time before the election, the US stock market has been falling in August and September. The reason is that uncertainty leads to capital withdrawal for risk aversion. After the election, no matter who is elected, the market will start to rise. As long as the polls can't tell who will win, the financial market will be like this. #美联储何时降息？ #美国政府转移BTC #拜登退选 $BTC

#比特币大会
In fact, I don’t really want to summarize the Bitcoin Conference, because old money doesn’t take Trump seriously at all, and a politician’s speech before he moves into the White House will not affect them at all.
And as I said before, good news is bad news, and what politicians promise may not necessarily come true, just like Trump’s wall, which was not repaired until he was ousted.
The following is a summary of the BTC Conference. If you like it, take a look, if you don’t like it, just quit.
Summary of Trump’s speech at the Bitcoin 2024 Conference
Main content
Bitcoin development:
Recognize Bitcoin’s innovative journey from anonymous ideas to becoming the world’s ninth largest asset.
Emphasize the United States’ leading position in technology, science, manufacturing, artificial intelligence, space, and energy, and position the United States as the center of Bitcoin and related innovations.
Bitcoin policy commitments:
Support the mining, minting, and manufacturing of Bitcoin in the United States.
Promise that if elected, the Biden/Harris administration’s anti-cryptocurrency campaign will be ended, Gary Gensler will be fired, and the “Chokepoint 2.0” operation will be shut down.
A presidential advisory committee on Bitcoin and cryptocurrency will be created to set fair rules.
Opposes central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and supports the right to self-custody, freedom of trade, freedom of association and freedom of speech.
Supports US dollar stablecoins and global Bitcoin savings.
Economy and Bitcoin:
Believes that the current government's actions threaten the US dollar, and Bitcoin holders are more aware of the dangers of inflation.
Promises to turn the United States into the lowest-cost energy producer and supports Bitcoin mining.
Opposes the US government's sale of Bitcoin and establishes a strategic national Bitcoin reserve.
Other promises:
Commute the sentence of Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht.
Become a president who supports innovation, Bitcoin and technology.
Reasons for the flat market reaction
Expectations have been digested:
When the Trump team confirmed its participation in the conference, the market had already reacted and prices rose slightly.
Most of the speech content was in line with expectations and lacked novelty.
Doubts about political promises:
The market remains skeptical of politicians' promises, focusing on "listening to their words and watching their actions."
Trump's previous negative attitude towards Bitcoin has aroused suspicion of policy changes.
Trump lacks a legal background, and many of his promises are difficult to implement, such as firing the chairman of the SEC. $BTC

Many people feel that the crypto market seems to be very strong recently, such as Mentougou and Grayscale's big sale, and BTC seems to be very strong. In fact, everyone has forgotten that a good news is about to land, which is the Bitcoin Conference. After Trump held a meeting on the 27th, he boasted that basically all the good news has come out and it is bad news. Everyone must pay attention to this! #比特币大会
Answer why I choose to talk about ETH instead of sol
1. In the last bull-bear cycle, sol fell by more than 90% from nearly 260 US dollars to about 8 US dollars. There must be an impact from the ftx exchange. But this also proves that the chips are in the hands of the dealer. It can fall to nearly zero, but the chips in the hands of the dealer can also pull you back to more than 200 US dollars.
2. In terms of inflation, sol is almost 10 times that of ETH. Sol's inflation is about 7%, that is, long-term holding has an advantage of 7% more than sol holders every year. The specific situation is shown in the figure.
Please wait patiently. According to the previous rules, BTC created a new high after the ETF. The market value of ETH is only one-third of BTC, so it should be easier to pull the market. So you can start selling at around $5,000 when you buy it later.
There are few more certain answers in this market. Sun Ge bought the bottom of $2 billion with real money and waited for Sun Ge to start selling. We can also sell it.

#美国以太坊现货ETF开始交易 $ETH
You may not believe it, but the outflow speed of this round of Grayscale has greatly exceeded everyone's expectations. Grayscale has sold about 400,000 ETH in three days after the ETF was launched. Grayscale originally had 3 million ETH and now has about 249. This outflow speed is unusual.
Previously, BTC sold half of its goods in about half a year, and ETH sold 10% in three days. At this rate, it will only take half a month to sell half. In the next half month, I suggest that brothers hold the U in their hands and wait for the right time to buy the bottom.
It is worth noting that Fidelity ETF's enthusiasm for buying ETH is beyond expectations. As of now, Fidelity has bought 74m Ethereum.
Currently, ETH has fallen 14% from the highest point of the ETF launch. The previous BTC ETF fell 22% after it was launched. If you stick to the old ways, the best entry point for ETH is 2900. Everyone can set a reminder to enter a part of the warehouse near 2900.

Secondly, pay attention to the ETH ecosystem. There are two coins that may be controversial:
The first one is Aevo, which is relatively strong in this round. It is a defi exchange with strong rebound. If ETH rises, this strong coin is worth noting.

The second one is crv, which is actually the most controversial. Some people denounced the founder and said that it is the most rubbish coin with the most decline and the weakest rebound. However, it is indisputable that it has the strongest pledge liquidity in the current market. However, good technology does not mean that it will pull the market. Everyone should buy it at their discretion.

$ETH Many people are watching ETH and expecting it to continue to rise in the short term. I have a few different opinions.
1: The counterintuitive positive news about Ethereum, the launch of ETFs is not necessarily a pure positive, because if the inflow is less than the overdue amount after the launch, it must be a big negative.
2: One disadvantage of ETFs is that for many people, Ethereum has a pledge system. For example, Sun Ge pledged 700,000 Ethereums for 3% of the year. If you buy ETFs, this year will be gone, and the fund will still charge.
3: Grayscale's strategy. Grayscale seems to have learned its lesson this time and divided the shares into two funds, miniETH and normal geth. The fee rate of miniETH is estimated to be the same as other funds, floating at 0.25%, but can this method really effectively prevent retail investors from changing positions? I am biased towards denial here. The market is speculative. Now Grayscale probably holds nearly 3 million ETH spot. There is no need to say more about the selling pressure in the market.
Conclusion: The overall market is upward, but it will definitely fluctuate in the short term. In the future, the so-called Trump pro-coin circle and the interest rate cut in September are all overdue and speculation. I hope everyone will cherish it.

First of all, the market situation in 2023 can be divided into three periods. The first period is from January to June. During this period, the CPI will fall relatively quickly, because the prices of goods and services in 2022 are relatively high from January to June, and the base is relatively large. Therefore, the cpi will fall relatively quickly during this period. The market will react to this benefit in advance. There will be a better rebound. The second period is July-August. During this period, because the CPI has dropped, the market has already entered. However, due to certain uncertainties in the US job market, employment is still relatively strong, so the decline in service-related CPI will be relatively slow. In addition, the stocks of major technology leaders will be affected by interest rate increases, and their performance is expected to fluctuate significantly or even decline. At this stage, the market begins to trade in recessionary logic, and the market will most likely fall back or fall.

At 4 o'clock in the morning, Musk will hold a press conference. As a currency that is all controlled by the richest man, it is possible to ambush a wave.

In the mid-term, we are definitely bullish about negative month-on-month growth. In February, inflation will definitely reach 25 basis points. Inflation in the first half of the year will continue to accelerate downward. First, because prices were high in the first half of last year and the base was large. Second, core inflation indicators such as rents have peaked, and housing prices are still falling. The first half of the year is a bull market, and the second half of the year is expected to be a recession. Therefore, the only uncertainty this year is the second half. The second half of the year mainly depends on whether the Federal Reserve will Cut interest rates.

Link has not really started the target of 10U. The maximum resistance is at 8.5U. At that time, half the position will be taken profit. If the correction exceeds 5%, the position will be replenished. If the position is increased by 10%, the position will be closed completely at 10U.