The U.S. employment data in July was disturbed by the hurricane, and the real situation may not be as bad as the data released. A similar situation occurred in 2003. From June to August of that year, the United States encountered multiple strong hurricanes that made landfall. The "Sam Rule" was triggered for a time, but it was later proven that the economy did not decline. In addition, we sorted out and compared the performance of new non-agricultural employment when the "Sam Rule" was first triggered, and found that the current data is significantly better. This reflects the logic we have reminded many times before: a large number of illegal immigrants are flowing in. Income has caused a job crowding-out effect on residents of the United States, causing unemployment data to be distorted to a certain extent. In addition, high-frequency indicators also show that the U.S. economy and employment have not deteriorated significantly recently. For example: as of the end of July, the unemployment rate for people holding unemployment insurance remained at a low of 1.2%, and has not increased since the beginning of the year; the weekly economic index ( WEI ) was 2.0%, above the year-to-date average of 1.8%. Therefore, although the weakening employment situation in the United States is an objective fact, it is not yet enough to conclude that the U.S. economy has experienced a recession, and it is still necessary to observe the performance of more subsequent data.
This employment data has greatly intensified the market's recession concerns. Until this concern is falsified, market risk appetite remains risk-off, and "recession trading" will most likely continue. The baseline scenario is: global stock markets and commodities Other risk assets are under pressure, the U.S. dollar index and U.S. bond yields are falling, and gold is relatively strong. However, if subsequent data confirms that the economy is not in recession, asset prices are expected to undergo a sharp correction. $BTC