msk华尔街

In April 2023, shorting ETH (Ethereum) was as easy as withdrawing money from an ATM; the market trend was indeed that way. Who would have thought that by early May, the most liquidated asset would be ETH? I originally thought that at the $2500 mark, this was the bottom—after all, ETH, as the 'second' in the cryptocurrency market, should have strong support. But reality hit hard; I not only got liquidated at this position but also deeply understood that there is no such thing as an 'iron bottom' in the face of trends. Bottom-fishing with contracts is simply a dead end.

In contrast, spot trading is much steadier. Although I did add to my position once, I felt less anxious. After all, in the long run, I still believe ETH's 'second' position won't be too bad. The market may just be undergoing a severe shake-up. The biggest lesson from this wave of market movement is: never fight against the trend, especially in the contract market; respecting the market is more important than blind confidence.
This small profit may not be much in front of the big players, but it is indeed a confidence boost for myself!

#交易故事 Yesterday, the market soared wildly, and the bears must have suffered heavily, likely facing liquidation. The bulls are strong, giving the bears no chance to recover. In this ever-changing market, surviving is anything but easy. I still remember the drop in April, where the square was filled with trading screenshots of bears ruthlessly crushed to liquidation, leaving a scene of devastation. And from last night to today, the situation has turned, with the bulls gaining momentum, and liquidation screenshots are once again flooding the screen, clearly showcasing the brutality of the market.
$SOL

#最近的一笔交易

The contract market is like a turbulent deep sea, hiding suffocating anxiety everywhere. Recently, the rhetoric that 'the end of the contract is zero' has been rampant, and many stories that once floated in the tide of leverage have ultimately turned into the flickering zero data on the screen, making one shudder. The market is vast like an endless wilderness, with opportunities coexisting with risks, but for us 'retail investors' at the bottom of the food chain, every entry feels like dancing on the tip of a knife—knowing full well that right-side trading might be a relatively safe survival rule, yet being dragged into the abyss by inner greed when the trend arrives.

Everyone understands the reasoning: right-side trading emphasizes 'no bottom fishing, no top touching', entering the market in a clear trend and taking profits when they are available. But how easy is it to resist the impulse of 'earning double' when the K-line soars? When account numbers swell at a visible speed and adrenaline spikes, rationality has long been thrown out of the window. How many people enter with the intention of 'taking profits and exiting', only to lose themselves in the waves of the market, transforming from short-term speculation into heavy betting, ultimately being devoured by reverse fluctuations that swallow their principal.

Spot trading seems like a gentler choice, requiring no constant attention to leverage multiples, just patience to hold positions at low points. Yet, in the face of the lucrative temptations of the contract market, maintaining the 'slow money' of spot trading requires immense self-discipline—watching others double their money in a single day on contracts, while the gains in one’s own spot account seem trivial. This psychological torment is more exhausting than the risks of short-term operations. Perhaps, as the old traders say: 'Spot earns the money of cognition, contracts gamble on the weaknesses of human nature.'

In the quiet of the night, watching the fluctuating market on the screen, there are always those who silently pray: hoping that the ups and downs of the contract market will eventually have a gentle end, wishing that everyone staring at the screen late at night can wait for their own dawn. We struggle in this uncertain market, not only for the chips of life but also to prove our judgment in the wave. May we all find balance in the game between greed and rationality, moving further—no matter how slow the pace, at least we are still moving forward.

After losing the entire contract with a win rate of 1100% since last October 03253992084, I reflected on my trading approach and established the "3 trades a day" rule. However, the results of my operations did not show any improvement. In this market, greed and thinking have no规律. Therefore, after experiencing the significant declines and fluctuations in March-April 2025, I held onto my spot position fully. Although the returns from spot are slow and do not bring the joy of a contract like PUNT, which can go from 40 to 6000 in a day, at least I can sleep soundly at night holding spot. Spot is not an alternative for market trading; it is merely a safety net in the absence of a clear market trend. I believe holding spot and small fund contracts will be my trading approach moving forward. This market does not lack genius traders or young individuals getting rich overnight; what may be lacking is a yearning for life. Who knows, maybe one day we will all be able to peek through the gaps in the "Heavenly Palace"!

The 5U given by the system, the take-profit price is 1 yuan. I feel like I'm dreaming.

#止损策略 Liang Xi is still an impressive presence. #加密市场反弹

#美国加征关税 The overall impact of U.S. tariffs on cryptocurrencies is a complex and multi-layered issue, with both short-term fluctuations and potential long-term trends. Below is an analysis of its impact:

Short-term Impact
1. Market Sentiment and Increased Volatility
Tariffs typically trigger global trade tensions, leading to increased uncertainty in financial markets. Investors may turn to traditional assets (such as gold or the U.S. dollar) due to risk-averse sentiment, putting short-term pressure on the cryptocurrency market. For example, the prices of mainstream cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin may experience rapid declines due to market panic, especially when risk assets like U.S. stocks fluctuate simultaneously.

2. Fluctuations in the U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate
Tariff policies may boost the value of the U.S. dollar, as trade protectionism may temporarily reduce the U.S. trade deficit. In this case, the prices of cryptocurrencies denominated in U.S. dollars (such as Bitcoin) may face downward pressure, especially for international investors, as the cost of purchase increases.

3. Rising Supply Chain Costs
Tariffs may increase operational costs in the technology sector (such as hardware, chips, etc.), indirectly affecting the profitability of cryptocurrency mining. Especially for miners relying on imported equipment, rising costs may compress profit margins, even leading to changes in hash rate concentration.

Medium-term Impact
1. Inflation Expectations and Demand for Safe-Haven Assets
Tariffs may drive up domestic prices in the U.S., triggering inflation expectations. In this context, some investors may view cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin as 'digital gold' to hedge against inflation, thereby increasing their demand and price support. This safe-haven property has been validated by the market during previous economic uncertainty periods (such as the early days of the pandemic).

2. Changes in Global Capital Flows
If tariffs lead to escalating trade friction between the U.S. and China, countries like China may accelerate the development and application of digital currencies (such as the digital yuan). This could stimulate competition in the global cryptocurrency market, driving more capital into decentralized markets.

#美国加征关税 The impact of increased tariffs by the United States on cryptocurrencies is a complex and multi-layered issue, with both short-term fluctuations and potential long-term trends. Here is an analysis of its effects:

Short-term Effects
1. Market Sentiment and Increased Volatility
Increased tariffs typically trigger global trade tensions, leading to greater uncertainty in financial markets. Investors may turn to traditional assets (such as gold or the US dollar) due to risk-averse sentiment, putting short-term pressure on the cryptocurrency market. For example, the prices of mainstream cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin may experience rapid declines due to market panic, especially when risk assets like US stocks are also volatile.

2. US Dollar Exchange Rate Fluctuations
Tariff policies may drive up the value of the US dollar, as trade protectionism may temporarily reduce the US trade deficit. In this case, the prices of cryptocurrencies denominated in US dollars (like Bitcoin) may face downward pressure, particularly for international investors, as the cost of purchase rises.

3. Increased Supply Chain Costs
Tariffs may raise operating costs in the technology sector (such as hardware, chips, etc.), indirectly affecting the profitability of cryptocurrency mining. Especially for miners relying on imported equipment, rising costs could compress profit margins and even lead to changes in hash power concentration.

Medium-term Effects
1. Inflation Expectations and Demand for Safe Havens
Increased tariffs may raise domestic prices of goods in the United States, triggering inflation expectations. In this situation, some investors may view cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin as "digital gold" and use them as a hedge against inflation, thereby increasing their demand and price support. This safe-haven attribute has been validated by the market during past periods of economic uncertainty (such as the early stages of the pandemic).

2. Changes in Global Capital Flows
If tariffs lead to escalated trade frictions between the US and China, countries like China may accelerate the development and application of digital currencies (such as the digital yuan). This could stimulate competition in the global cryptocurrency market, driving more capital into decentralized systems.

$BTC #The market showed a fluctuating trend today, with the latest price at $87,389 (+0.81%). The 24h price range is between $85,816 and $88,270, with an amplitude of about 2.8%, indicating intense market competition between bulls and bears. The trading volume reached 191,165 BTC ($16.6 billion), with ample liquidity. The EMA moving averages (7/25/99) are converging around $87,000, leaving the short-term direction unclear. The KDJ indicator shows a J value of 96.3 (overbought area), but the price has not significantly retraced, possibly supported by buying pressure at high levels. The short-term EMA is approaching the current price, which may continue the fluctuating pattern, requiring attention to the support at $85,800 and the resistance breakout at $88,270.

#晒出你的交易 $SOL 3 Let's play with the spot goods this month

I personally feel that holding spot ETH has potential at $ETH . If the contract breaks 2, it will be shorted due to too much resistance. In the current market, those with capability can play the swings, while those without capability and ammunition can only wait for opportunities.

#美SEC加密圆桌会议
1. The conference theme focuses on the definition of securities attributes
The theme of the first roundtable meeting is “How We Got Here and How We Move Forward: Defining the State of Security.” This indicates that the SEC is attempting to clarify the key criteria for whether crypto assets are considered securities, which may involve discussions on the applicability of existing laws (such as the Securities Act of 1933). This is a core issue for the crypto industry as it directly affects token issuance, trading, and compliance requirements.

2. Regulatory approach shifts to open dialogue
This SEC meeting adopted an open format and was broadcast live on SEC.gov, demonstrating a shift from past “enforcement-style regulation” to a more open, two-way communication. SEC Commissioner Hester M. Peirce emphasized the desire to leverage public expertise to develop a “feasible regulatory framework,” which may signal that future policies will be more inclusive and transparent.

3. Involvement of a wide range of crypto asset types
The meeting may discuss mainstream cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum, as well as the regulatory classification of NFTs (non-fungible tokens) and various types of tokens. In discussions on X, some mentioned that Peirce may support NFTs for financing, suggesting that the SEC might be considering differentiated regulatory strategies for different types of crypto assets.

4. Potential impact on ETF approval process
It is widely speculated that this meeting may be related to the approval process of cryptocurrency ETFs (exchange-traded funds). If the meeting sends positive signals (such as Bitcoin not being classified as a security), it could accelerate ETF-related decisions and inject positive sentiment into the market.

5. The game between industry and regulation
The meeting is not only a technical discussion but also a game of rules between the industry and regulatory bodies. Participants include crypto supporters and critics (such as representatives from Better Markets), highlighting the SEC's search for consensus between investor protection and industry innovation. This could lead to a clearer compliance pathway for the Web3 ecosystem.

The March interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve on March 20 (2:00 AM Beijing time) will mainly depend on the content of the decision regarding the short-term impact on cryptocurrencies. It is expected to maintain the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.5%.
1. Impact of Maintaining Interest Rates
If the Federal Reserve holds steady as expected, the cryptocurrency market may not experience significant volatility, as this outcome has been widely digested. Major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin may continue to oscillate within the current price range (for example, Bitcoin's recent resistance level is around $81,000). A stable interest rate environment typically does not directly suppress demand for risk assets, but it also does not stimulate large-scale capital inflows.

2. The Significance of Powell's Statements
The press conference following the decision (2:30 AM Beijing time) will be a greater focus. Powell's wording on inflation, employment, and the timing of future rate cuts will directly influence market sentiment. If he releases a "hawkish" signal (indicating a longer period of maintaining high rates or delaying rate cuts), the dollar may strengthen, and risk assets like cryptocurrencies may face selling pressure, leading to a short-term pullback. If the tone is more "dovish" (indicating that rate cuts are near), it could boost market confidence and drive cryptocurrency prices higher.

3. Historical Volatility Patterns
Historical data shows that within 72 hours after a Federal Reserve decision, the volatility of the cryptocurrency market often increases significantly (sometimes by more than 15%). This indicates that even if interest rates remain unchanged, the market's interpretation of the decision and emotional reactions can still trigger short-term significant volatility.

4. Overlay of External Factors
The current global market is also disturbed by uncertainties such as the threat of Trump’s tariffs. If the Federal Reserve mentions these factors' potential upward pressure on inflation, it may further weaken investors' confidence in risk assets, indirectly affecting cryptocurrencies.

Summary
In the short term, if the Federal Reserve maintains interest rates and Powell does not release unexpected signals, cryptocurrencies may remain relatively stable with limited volatility. However, if the tone is hawkish, assets like Bitcoin may fall by 5%-10%; if dovish, they may rise above recent resistance levels. Investors need to closely monitor this morning’s decision and press conference, as market reactions may emerge within hours.

#分享您对BTC的看法

Currently, the Bitcoin price may be in a consolidation phase. Market observations indicate that BTC is fluctuating between key support and resistance levels, and there has not yet been a clear directional breakout in the short term. Investors seem to be waiting for upcoming macroeconomic events, such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision (expected to be announced on March 20), which could significantly impact market sentiment and price trends. In this scenario, market sentiment is cautious, and trading volumes may remain relatively stable, reflecting a wait-and-see attitude.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin may be consolidating within a certain range, such as fluctuating between $80,000 and $85,000. This narrow range of fluctuation could accumulate energy for the market, and once macro events provide clear signals, it may trigger significant volatility. If the Federal Reserve releases positive signals (such as an increased expectation of interest rate cuts), BTC may break upward; conversely, if the policy leans towards tightening, it may test lower support levels, such as $79,000 or even lower.

Combining the overall forecast for 2025, many institutions and analysts hold an optimistic view on BTC, believing its price may further rise throughout the year, potentially breaking $150,000 and even exceeding $180,000. This is driven by various factors, including the continued expansion of Bitcoin ETFs, the influx of institutional funds, and the gradual clarification of global regulatory attitudes towards cryptocurrencies. However, short-term volatility should not be overlooked, especially given the influence of U.S. economic data and policies.

In summary, BTC's trend on March 19, 2025, is likely to be dominated by consolidation, with the short-term direction dependent on the upcoming macroeconomic signals. In the medium to long term, the potential for upward movement still exists, but close attention must be paid to changes in market sentiment and external events. Investors are advised to remain patient and monitor the Federal Reserve's decision on March 20 and its subsequent impact on the market.
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As of March 17, 2025, the trend of BNB (Binance Coin) needs to be analyzed in conjunction with current market dynamics and its ecological development. Recently, BNB, as the core asset of the Binance ecosystem, has been significantly influenced by exchange performance, on-chain activities, and macro market sentiment. Since the beginning of 2025, the crypto market may be in a new cycle; if bullish expectations continue, BNB is expected to remain strong. The prosperity of Binance Smart Chain (now known as BNB Chain), such as the DeFi, NFT, and meme coin craze, may drive an increase in BNB demand, especially if a certain meme coin (as mentioned on X) ignites the market, potentially breaking through key resistance levels (such as 700 dollars or even 1000 dollars) in the short term. However, its centralized nature makes it vulnerable to regulatory risks, necessitating caution regarding policy changes. Technically, if it maintains support above 600 dollars, the short-term target may point towards 750-800 dollars, but if the market corrects, it may retrace to 550 dollars. Overall, the outlook for BNB is relatively optimistic, but attention must be paid to risk balance.

#稳定币激增 "The Surge of Stablecoins" is a significant phenomenon in the cryptocurrency market in recent years, reflecting the increasing demand from investors for volatility management and value storage. Stablecoins like USDT and USDC attempt to provide price stability by pegging to fiat currencies or assets, making them an ideal choice for trading mediums and safe-haven instruments. However, this surge also brings some concerns: centrally issued stablecoins may face regulatory pressure and transparency issues, while decentralized stablecoins may become unstable due to algorithmic design flaws. Additionally, the widespread circulation of stablecoins could potentially impact the traditional financial system. Overall, the rise of stablecoins is a reflection of market innovation, but it is also necessary to be cautious of the risks and challenges behind it.

Ethereum (ETH) news shows that its price continues to be under pressure, hovering around $1800, with a net outflow of 4300 ETH from Ethereum ETFs in the last 24 hours, reflecting a bleak market sentiment. The post mentions, 'When in doubt, go short on ETH,' indicating that investors lack confidence in its short-term trend. At the same time, technical analysis suggests that if it falls below $1760, it could trigger significant liquidations, increasing the risk.

My personal view: The current weakness of ETH may be related to macroeconomic tightening and Bitcoin's dominance in the market. Short positions are favored in the short term, but if the Pectra upgrade proceeds as planned (expected in mid-March), it could inject new vitality into ETH. $1800 may be a key bottom, so it's advisable to pay attention to ETF fund flows and support levels, operate cautiously, and it still holds long-term potential.

Personally, I think it's a good time to buy some spot.

$BNB 2025年3月14日，BNB币的走势可能呈现震荡上行的态势。从近期市场动态看，BNB在突破600美元后显示出较强动，反映了市场对其生态发展的乐观情绪。结合技术面，BNB若能维持在560美元以上支撑位，或将进一步挑战前期高点甚至突破至620美元。然而，全球经济不确定性及监管政策可能带来短期回调压力。建议关注交易量变化及比特币走势，作为BNB价格的重要参考。总体而言，短期内BNB仍有上涨空间，但需警惕市场波动风险。

The current market sentiment for $BNB may be influenced by macroeconomic factors, regulatory dynamics, and the development of the Binance ecosystem. If Binance continues to expand its services and maintain trading volume advantages, BNB may remain strong and could test the resistance level of $700 in the short term. However, if global regulations tighten or market volatility increases, the price may pull back to the support range of $550-$600.

### March 13, 2025 Ethereum (ETH) Price Trend Analysis

As of March 13, 2025, at 10:28 AM CST, the price trend of Ethereum (ETH) has become the focus of the cryptocurrency market. On that day, the price of Ethereum showed a fluctuating downward trend in the short term, reflecting the uncertainty of market sentiment and the influence of external economic factors. This article will conduct an in-depth discussion of ETH's trend based on the latest market data and technical analysis.

#### Current Market Overview
According to the latest data of the day, the price of Ethereum has performed weakly in the past 24 hours, fluctuating between $1,900 and $2,000. Influenced by the U.S. CPI data (3.1%, lower than expected), the market briefly rebounded, with BTC surging to $84,000, and ETH also rising to about $1,950. However, the subsequent rapid pullback caused ETH to fall by about 5%, indicating strong selling pressure. The current price is close to $1,900, nearing the previous low support level of $1,750, with market sentiment leaning towards caution.

#### Technical Analysis
From a technical perspective, ETH's 15-minute and 1-hour charts show that the 50-day and 200-day moving averages (MA) are both trending downward, indicating that the short-term and medium-term trends are weak. The Stochastic Oscillator shows that %K is below %D, entering the oversold zone, but no clear buy signal has appeared yet. The resistance level around $2,000 has been tested multiple times without breakthrough, indicating strong selling pressure at this level. Additionally, trading volume has decreased, reflecting a decline in market participation, which may indicate further pullback risks. The support level is at $1,750; if it breaks, it may drop to $1,700.

#### Market Influencing Factors
External factors significantly impact ETH's trend. The rebound in U.S. stocks provides some support for the crypto market, but BTC's strong performance has not driven ETH to rise simultaneously. Some market views suggest that ETH may be under pressure from institutional control or competing chains (such as Solana). Discussions on platform X indicate that investor confidence in ETH is diverging, with some believing its market value should maintain a reasonable premium of 30% over Solana, while others worry that its technological advantages may be surpassed by emerging public chains. Moreover, the anticipation of the Pectra upgrade has not effectively boosted market sentiment, possibly due to investors taking a wait-and-see attitude towards its actual impact.
#ETH走势分析 $ETH