The March interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve on March 20 (2:00 AM Beijing time) will mainly depend on the content of the decision regarding the short-term impact on cryptocurrencies. It is expected to maintain the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.5%.

1. Impact of Maintaining Interest Rates

If the Federal Reserve holds steady as expected, the cryptocurrency market may not experience significant volatility, as this outcome has been widely digested. Major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin may continue to oscillate within the current price range (for example, Bitcoin's recent resistance level is around $81,000). A stable interest rate environment typically does not directly suppress demand for risk assets, but it also does not stimulate large-scale capital inflows.

2. The Significance of Powell's Statements

The press conference following the decision (2:30 AM Beijing time) will be a greater focus. Powell's wording on inflation, employment, and the timing of future rate cuts will directly influence market sentiment. If he releases a "hawkish" signal (indicating a longer period of maintaining high rates or delaying rate cuts), the dollar may strengthen, and risk assets like cryptocurrencies may face selling pressure, leading to a short-term pullback. If the tone is more "dovish" (indicating that rate cuts are near), it could boost market confidence and drive cryptocurrency prices higher.

3. Historical Volatility Patterns

Historical data shows that within 72 hours after a Federal Reserve decision, the volatility of the cryptocurrency market often increases significantly (sometimes by more than 15%). This indicates that even if interest rates remain unchanged, the market's interpretation of the decision and emotional reactions can still trigger short-term significant volatility.

4. Overlay of External Factors

The current global market is also disturbed by uncertainties such as the threat of Trump’s tariffs. If the Federal Reserve mentions these factors' potential upward pressure on inflation, it may further weaken investors' confidence in risk assets, indirectly affecting cryptocurrencies.

Summary

In the short term, if the Federal Reserve maintains interest rates and Powell does not release unexpected signals, cryptocurrencies may remain relatively stable with limited volatility. However, if the tone is hawkish, assets like Bitcoin may fall by 5%-10%; if dovish, they may rise above recent resistance levels. Investors need to closely monitor this morning’s decision and press conference, as market reactions may emerge within hours.