Tonight's non-farm data combined with the Trump-Musk fallout will push the market into a dual shock of 'policy impact + data game'. From a data perspective, the May ADP employment only increased by 37,000, hitting a two-year low, and the market has lowered expectations for non-farm job additions to 120,000, with the unemployment rate possibly remaining at 4.2%. If the data falls short of expectations, it may reinforce the Fed's rate cut expectations for July, pushing Bitcoin above $120,000 each and Ethereum above $8,000 each; if it exceeds expectations, it may trigger market concerns about a 'wage-inflation spiral', with US Treasury yields possibly rising to 4.5%, and US tech stocks facing second-round adjustment pressure.

The fallout between Trump and Musk has triggered a chain reaction: Tesla evaporated $152 billion in market value in a single day, and the SpaceX 'Dragon' spacecraft retirement plan has intensified uncertainty in the space industry. This political and commercial confrontation may lead to a further contraction of new energy vehicle subsidy policies, dragging down the valuation of the global electric vehicle industry chain. More worryingly, Trump's threat to terminate government subsidies and contracts could impact key sectors such as semiconductors and aerospace, exacerbating market panic over 'policy black swans'.

In the face of the current complex situation, investors need to adopt a 'layered defense' strategy:

1. Position management: Keep equity asset positions below 60%, and increase Bitcoin (such as Grayscale Bitcoin Trust GBTC) and Ethereum (such as ProShares Ethereum ETF) allocations to 20% (the two can be diversified in a 7:3 ratio), retaining 10% cash to cope with liquidity shocks. Note: The volatility risk of cryptocurrencies is high, and the position ratio is recommended not to exceed 25% of total assets.

2. Industry focus: Pay close attention to anti-inflation sectors, such as energy (Exxon Mobil), and essential consumption (Procter & Gamble), while avoiding policy-sensitive industries (such as Tesla, Nvidia).

3. Technical defense: Set a stop-loss line for Bitcoin at $100,000 each and a take-profit point at $135,000 each; set a stop-loss line for Ethereum at $6,500 each and a take-profit point at $9,000 each, using perpetual contracts or options tools (such as Deribit) to hedge against extreme volatility risks.

4. Policy tracking: Closely monitor the details of Trump's tariff policy (expected to be announced next week) and the Fed's statement from the June 18 meeting. If the Fed signals a hawkish stance, decisively reduce cryptocurrency holdings to below 10%.

Historical experience shows that during periods of resonance between political events and non-farm data, market volatility typically amplifies by 30%-50%. As a high-risk asset, cryptocurrencies may experience extreme fluctuations of over 20% in a single day. During such times, avoid leverage trading, and prioritize risk reduction through dollar-cost averaging (such as buying a fixed amount weekly) and cross-currency hedging (such as a Bitcoin + stablecoin USDT combination). For medium- to long-term investors, it is advisable to wait for the market panic to subside and gradually build positions near **$92,000 per Bitcoin (200-day moving average) and $6,200 per Ethereum (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level)**.

Key adjustment instructions:

- Emphasize high volatility in cryptocurrencies, with position ratios lower than the original recommendation for gold, and add risk warnings;

- Technical level reference to historical support and resistance logic (such as the 200-day moving average, Fibonacci retracement), which needs to be adjusted dynamically according to real-time market conditions;

- Tool selection focuses on compliant financial products (such as ETFs, trusts), reducing the risk of retail investors directly trading on exchanges.