叶神月

The bottom fishing at 103000 has already yielded nearly 2000 points in profit. I will guide you in bottom fishing; when to take profits is up to you.

The market has spiked to the area I marked for buying; you can refer to the previous article.

For this trade, I will be cautious. Conservative traders can take partial profits; taking profits at any time is correct.

A final risk warning: it cannot be determined yet whether the decline has stopped. In the capital market, nothing is 100% certain. If BTC breaks above 106000, we can look for new highs. If it continues to drop, do not get liquidated by the spike; manage your stop-loss or preserve your capital.

The market crash time will not be now. If the market experiences panic selling, you should be bold enough to buy long and purchase spot positions. This article is valid for 3 days.

Trading Plan ｜ June 17

1. Why do I say the crash time is not now?

According to the behavior of the main force distributing their assets, the current market has already experienced two major levels of bullish distribution.

The first was when it broke through the new high position, marking the main force's first distribution dump.

The second was when BTC surged to 110,000; I mentioned in a previous article that whether the main force breaks the new high is not important. We are not the main force, so we don't need to care about where they push the price. We just need to understand what they are doing.

Now, we still need one more extreme bullish trap that makes people believe this is a new trend to rush to buy BTC. In this process, the main force will distribute the remaining chips completely. I won't go into detail about this today; I will post a weekly follow-up on the main force's distribution. If you want to see previous trend tracking, please refer to earlier articles or follow up this weekend.

The explanation here is to let you know that KOLs are placing a lot of panic short orders at this position. However, these short sellers will make some profit, but in the end, they will all be squeezed out by the main force's final short positions and will switch to long positions. Ultimately, near the new high, the main force's dumping will create a large-scale double kill of bulls and bears. I will screenshot this statement and post it again in a future article.

2. Current 4-hour buy points

The current 4-hour level is undoubtedly a bearish trend, having broken below the 4-hour EMA moving average group.

At this position, the first scenario is that the main force rapidly dumps, causing panic and leading retail investors to sell their chips, resulting in small-scale accumulation before reaching a new high.

The second scenario is a sideways movement plus a spike. If there is support for buying long, I will analyze the market and post accordingly.

The buy position during this dump is around 103,000. This dump has a certain probability of being relatively deep because sometimes the main force cannot control the spikes that occur during a chain liquidation. Therefore, do not use high leverage and risk being liquidated. You can use a one-position double-entry strategy, which means entering one position first, then adding more if it drops, or chasing if it rises. This way, the initiative always remains with the trader.

The reason for buying long at this position is that the main force will not break their established support for distribution before completing the distribution. Just like I wouldn't lift a stone to smash my own foot.

Thank you.

$BTC If the market crashes quickly tonight, you must dare to buy more. I will post when I buy more, expecting a false break below 104000.

This is a new opportunity for a large swing in spot and contracts, with a chance to reach new highs.

I can only check the market and post levels after I get home from the unit dinner.

$BTC was closed at 109000 take profit, but the market only reached 108950. This trade was purely luck, but I accept everything that happens and learn from my mistakes.

I slept pretty well last night. 🤣

Yesterday's plan allowed the brothers to make money, but I had to sleep because I have to work today.

Today I opened a long position at the support level, which is an aggressive trade, still aiming to break even and look for higher. Yesterday's plan is still valid today.

Those who made profits, give me a thumbs up to let me know.

I will update the next step plan tonight.

Clear position
Clear direction
Clear stop loss
Clear profit

Brothers who followed this order set a break-even loss. Currently, the market is fluctuating, and at the resistance level, it's better to take some profit.

My average price is high because I simultaneously opened a long position on pepe, but the position feels weak on pepe, so I simply switched everything to BTC, which raised my average price.

$BTC 4-hour level breakout EMA moving average cluster, pullback near 106300 for long

Allen's Trading Plan ｜ June 16

1. BTC stopped falling at the 4-hour Fibonacci 0.618 level (as mentioned in the previous article, no further explanation) and made a bullish candlestick this Monday morning. Therefore, unless there is a major negative event, there will not be a significant drop.

2. The long entry point is near 106300, pulling back to the 4-hour EMA moving average cluster for a long position. The most likely time to get an opportunity is around the opening of the U.S. stock market when establishing a consolidation low. If there is no opportunity at that time, I will enter half a position near 106000 to add to the position, with the stop loss at the same location.

3. The current ATR when I wrote this article is 966 points, and the stop loss for this trade is set at 1.5 times the ATR, which is about 1500 points, directly losing below 105000.

4. I cannot confirm whether the current rise can directly break new highs; I vaguely feel that the consolidation time is not enough, perhaps indicating a trend of consolidating upwards. This trade may be a short-term position, but specific operations should be based on market movements.

5. Currently, from the 1-hour level perspective, the BTC market is in fact clearer, showing a significant 4 small-level consolidation and pullback for accumulation. Therefore, waiting for the market to pull back to support for a long position is the most prudent approach, with the same trading method as the 4-hour level, entering long positions between 106000-106300, with the same stop loss.

6. This is the entire plan for today. If the market exceeds expectations, and the position gets stopped out, our next long entry point will be around 100000. It is difficult to reach this level in a short time, so this is Plan B. As I said, if there is a plan in advance, the mind will not go blank when the market occurs. I accept anything that happens.

$BTC Babies, tell me you are not shorting at a low position, right?

I already warned about the risks of short positions on Saturday, and I gambled on a long position this morning.

The reason I say it's gambling is that the stop loss for this position has to be set at 102600, and the take profit has to be above 108000, a 1:1 risk-reward ratio; otherwise, it's just break-even. This is not a good trade but rather a gamble on the outcome.

So I won't share, but you can find something useful in my trading plan and think independently about your own trades; this will be very helpful for you.

I will post the next trading plan tonight. This round of gains may become the last escape opportunity in a bull market.

$BTC I did not continue to short because my system told me that shorting at this moment is dangerous.

1. The first point, which is also what I am most concerned about, is that the current 4-hour level is rising at the Fibonacci 0.618 position with high trading volume stopping the decline. I have mentioned that trading volume represents divergence; if the trading volume is extremely high but the candlestick does not continue to drop, it proves that there are buyers supporting the price at this level, and I don't need to know who they are.

2. The daily level has printed a standard high-volume hammer candlestick, and there is EMA30 providing support below. The daily level here is just an auxiliary judgment.

3. The bottom-fishing indicator suggests that this is the bottom; every time the bottom-fishing indicator suggests a bottom, it has a high probability of reversal combined with moving averages and candlestick patterns. I often bottom-fish, and this indicator is extremely helpful for me.

4. Therefore, I will give up on shorting. If the subsequent hourly candlestick repairs into a bullish pattern, I will follow the trend and go long.

5. I often say that one should not pursue perfection too much in candlestick patterns and moving average trends. Achieving a vague correctness will give an 80% probability of being right. For example, in a W pattern, the left side can be longer and the right side shorter; this is also acceptable because the definition of patterns comes from the main players, not us.

6. However, the current short position is merely dangerous; it’s not at the point where I can say it must not be done. I just don’t like doing dangerous things. Everyone's moat and trading system are different. If the market continues to drop, I will still observe the stopping pattern around 100,000 to enter long positions. Having a plan for every situation will prevent my mind from going blank when the market moves.

Thank you.

$BTC Why do I say the bear market is coming, and BTC is about to experience a daily level crash?

The previous distribution article was successfully predicted, continuing the BTC distribution progress update.

The article is relatively long and presented in image form.

$TIA I haven't paid attention to this coin for about a month, and it's already at 1.8?

I have a vague feeling that this circle is undergoing a process of eliminating altcoins; many coins are no longer being bought by retail investors, and even if the big players pump them, they can't achieve significant returns.

Another coin I’m watching is $STRK, which is also in a bear state.

But overall, I believe that the altcoin with the biggest bubble in the current crypto market is $XRP; when it comes to shorting, this altcoin will be my top choice.

First take a small position, then add half a position when it goes up

$BTC doesn't wait for me? Looking for an opportunity to short.

100,000 as the lower boundary for the bull market distribution, short at 106,000 and buy at 100,000

$BTC Trading Plan ｜ June 13

1. The first short position is at the EMA120 on the 15-minute level, which coincides with the MA30 on the 1-hour level. Currently, the EMA moving averages on the 15-minute level are in a bearish arrangement, and for the purpose of correcting the moving average divergence, a bounce at the 5-minute level is expected. If there is no sign of a counterattack, a short operation will be conducted at 105,500-106,000. If the bounce does not reach this position, then buy at lower levels, as the odds of chasing shorts are not high.

2. Buy near 100,000. In the current context of a bull market distribution, the main force's selling will not break below their established support line, but there may be a false breakout. This has often occurred in historical distributions; panic selling happens quickly after you sell your chips, so if you want to capture a new trend high at this position, you need to plan your position size.

3. Initially, I believed this support would undergo a large-scale distribution around 94,000, but the main force has clearly set the distribution support line at 100,000. I do not have the final say, the main force does. Therefore, once this position rebounds, it will initiate a new trend upward, and there are reasons to break new highs, making this a worthwhile opportunity. Moreover, around 100,000 is the EMA60 on the daily level.

4. This trend upward may develop after two small-level bottoms. I will observe this situation.

5. The loss limit for the short position is 2,000 points, targeting 100,000, with odds of 1/3. Before executing this order, consider how much loss you can accept before placing the order, using the loss position to determine the attack form.

6. The next update of the trading plan will be on Monday, so this weekend I will update the progress of the bull market distribution. Additionally, this time the daily level selling may lead to weekly level selling; I will analyze this in detail later.

7. There is no investment product that is an eternal bull market.

Thank you.

Put a hundred thousand hearts at ease, darling, when people are bearish on ETH in the market, the altcoin season will quietly arrive again.

At that time, the ETH3000 -> foolish ETH script will be played out again.

There’s nothing new in the market; what’s happening now will happen again in the future.

Babies! If the market crashes accelerate, around 100,000 will be the next position to buy, and it is also my take profit position for short positions.

This position corresponds to the daily level EMA60 + daily level W-bottom, it must be a position for speculation; the main force won't let the level break below this position or perform a false breakdown and quickly pull back up.

A detailed analysis will be done in the evening.

$BTC Once again made a big profit, if it weren't for being stopped out, I would be like a perpetual profit teacher. After briefly supporting above 105000 and taking a short position, the market once again started to crash. Last night, I personally opened an aggressive short position, and I was stopped out just 500 points away from my high stop loss. Such short positions are relatively difficult to handle, so I did not share them. Crashes are always faster than rises because, in people's minds, fear is a much stronger emotion than greed.

Babies, if my orders help you make money, please give me a like and comment on my posts. If not, go ahead and scold me. Making money has such low traffic, and here we are at 1000 points again. It's quite tough for me🤣

$BTC Babies! Just posted a strategy for going long at 106700 to start making money, but I will monitor this position closely and won't expect it to rise too high. The market may return to consolidation or continue to decline, so lock in some profits and continue to look for higher levels, because I still see a bearish trend in the medium term.

Hey everyone! Yesterday I already indicated not to look for trend continuation, and to operate with short longs and long shorts.

BTC Trading Plan ｜ June 12

1. I hope the friends who were fomoing BTC new highs and ETH 3000 yesterday have set their stop losses.

2. After BTC failed to reach a new high yesterday, it entered a downtrend at the 15-minute level, EMA moving averages formed a breakdown, turned, crossed, and created a bearish arrangement, currently it has not stopped falling.

3. There are bearish signals, but the reason I didn't short is actually found in the previous text. I believe this time BTC's rise may break a new high. If the trend continues, then the bull market goes on; if it cannot break above, BTC is about to enter a bear market. However, betting at this position carries too high a risk, so I didn't act. It's like life or death.

4. Next, let's take two steps: the first step is to catch the rebound, and the second step is to short. There are currently two positions.

The first position is at the 4-hour level MA60 + previous support, around 106700. This position will see some rebound, or even hold up to form a short-term rise, but I can't say how much. I suggest monitoring it closely; if the situation is bad, close the position directly.

The second position is the starting point of the 4-hour level door, which is above 105000. This position is a must; I believe if the market drops above 105000, it will at least undergo a wave of 1-hour and 15-minute moving average repair, which means consolidation, re-gathering moving averages to choose a direction. I still see the subsequent direction as bearish. I think there's a high probability that BTC will form a daily level W-bottom, which is also a way that can break retail investors' hearts.

5. I mentioned in my article yesterday that I am bearish in the medium term, and for the short term, if there's a rebound, just take the profit and run. If the moving averages undergo a 1-hour level repair later, I will operate according to the moving average direction, tentatively setting the target as 100,000 W-bottom under the assumption of vaguely correct deductions.

6. Why do I say a bear market is coming?

I will write a separate article sharing updates on daily level distribution. Why is it an update? Because I previously wrote a version, so now it is an update, and the market is moving in the direction I deduced.

7. The two points shared yesterday have seen a certain rebound; today I only took two small bites. It's been a while since I had a big one, I’m a bit greedy.

Thank you.

$BTC Dear friends, this order is for a short-term long position on the rebound after a decline. After making a profit, find a desirable position to take profits.

The moving averages on the 1-hour chart are about to converge and choose a direction. I am at work and don't have time to monitor the market, but I will post a trend article and the next steps in the evening.