$BTC I did not continue to short because my system told me that shorting at this moment is dangerous.
1. The first point, which is also what I am most concerned about, is that the current 4-hour level is rising at the Fibonacci 0.618 position with high trading volume stopping the decline. I have mentioned that trading volume represents divergence; if the trading volume is extremely high but the candlestick does not continue to drop, it proves that there are buyers supporting the price at this level, and I don't need to know who they are.
2. The daily level has printed a standard high-volume hammer candlestick, and there is EMA30 providing support below. The daily level here is just an auxiliary judgment.
3. The bottom-fishing indicator suggests that this is the bottom; every time the bottom-fishing indicator suggests a bottom, it has a high probability of reversal combined with moving averages and candlestick patterns. I often bottom-fish, and this indicator is extremely helpful for me.
4. Therefore, I will give up on shorting. If the subsequent hourly candlestick repairs into a bullish pattern, I will follow the trend and go long.
5. I often say that one should not pursue perfection too much in candlestick patterns and moving average trends. Achieving a vague correctness will give an 80% probability of being right. For example, in a W pattern, the left side can be longer and the right side shorter; this is also acceptable because the definition of patterns comes from the main players, not us.
6. However, the current short position is merely dangerous; it’s not at the point where I can say it must not be done. I just don’t like doing dangerous things. Everyone's moat and trading system are different. If the market continues to drop, I will still observe the stopping pattern around 100,000 to enter long positions. Having a plan for every situation will prevent my mind from going blank when the market moves.
Thank you.