月薪3k梭哈
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The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut window is approaching; analysis and outlook on the market after a significant correction in the crypto space.
Recently, the cryptocurrency market has experienced a significant correction, with Bitcoin falling from a high of $97,000 to around $94,000, Ethereum breaking below the $1,850 support level, and altcoins generally seeing declines of over 15%. This volatility is closely related to the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision on May 7, as the market anticipates risks in the face of uncertainty. Below is a comprehensive analysis considering macroeconomics, policies, and technical aspects:
1. The core inducement of this round of adjustment
1. Divergence in Federal Reserve policy expectations
Although mainstream institutions predict a possible 0.25% rate cut by the Federal Reserve on May 7, over $30 million in bets on the Polymarket platform are against the rate cut, showing skepticism towards short-term easing.
1. The core inducement of this round of adjustment
1. Divergence in Federal Reserve policy expectations
Although mainstream institutions predict a possible 0.25% rate cut by the Federal Reserve on May 7, over $30 million in bets on the Polymarket platform are against the rate cut, showing skepticism towards short-term easing.
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2025 Cryptocurrency Cycle Analysis: Continuation of the Early Bull Market or the Eve of a Bear Market?
The current trends in the cryptocurrency market captivate countless investors. As Bitcoin breaks through the historical high of $97,000 in May 2025, market sentiment becomes extremely polarized: some believe this is the 'last carnival' of the bull market, while others firmly believe in the 'perpetual bull market.'
This article will comprehensively analyze the current market stage and potential future direction from the perspectives of historical cycles, market signals, institutional movements, and technical indicators.
#加密市场回调
1. Historical cycle perspective: The patterns and variables of bull-bear alternation.
According to the Bitcoin halving cycle pattern, halving events (block rewards halving) are usually seen as catalysts for the start of a bull market. Historically, the 12-18 months following a halving have been peak periods for bull markets, such as the peaks in 2017 (18 months after halving) and 2021 (14 months after halving) conforming to this pattern. After the fourth halving in May 2024, 2025 is highly likely to be at the climax stage of the bull market cycle.
This article will comprehensively analyze the current market stage and potential future direction from the perspectives of historical cycles, market signals, institutional movements, and technical indicators.
#加密市场回调
1. Historical cycle perspective: The patterns and variables of bull-bear alternation.
According to the Bitcoin halving cycle pattern, halving events (block rewards halving) are usually seen as catalysts for the start of a bull market. Historically, the 12-18 months following a halving have been peak periods for bull markets, such as the peaks in 2017 (18 months after halving) and 2021 (14 months after halving) conforming to this pattern. After the fourth halving in May 2024, 2025 is highly likely to be at the climax stage of the bull market cycle.
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The Federal Reserve Meeting Approaches: Rate Cut in May? Cryptocurrency Market Surge?
#非农就业数据来袭
I. Federal Reserve Meeting: Market Expectations and Policy Logic
The Federal Reserve will hold its third meeting of the year from May 6 to 7, with the market generally expecting this meeting to keep interest rates unchanged, maintaining the benchmark rate in the range of 4.25%-4.5%. This judgment is based on multiple economic data supports:
- Labor Market Resilience: In April, non-farm employment increased by 177,000, the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%, and core hourly wages rose by 0.2% month-on-month, indicating that the labor market has not significantly deteriorated.
- Repeated Inflation Pressures: Core PCE inflation rebounded to 3.5% in the first quarter, exceeding the Federal Reserve's target of 2%, leaving insufficient momentum for rate cuts in the short term.
I. Federal Reserve Meeting: Market Expectations and Policy Logic
The Federal Reserve will hold its third meeting of the year from May 6 to 7, with the market generally expecting this meeting to keep interest rates unchanged, maintaining the benchmark rate in the range of 4.25%-4.5%. This judgment is based on multiple economic data supports:
- Labor Market Resilience: In April, non-farm employment increased by 177,000, the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%, and core hourly wages rose by 0.2% month-on-month, indicating that the labor market has not significantly deteriorated.
- Repeated Inflation Pressures: Core PCE inflation rebounded to 3.5% in the first quarter, exceeding the Federal Reserve's target of 2%, leaving insufficient momentum for rate cuts in the short term.
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As six trillion U.S. Treasuries approach maturity, how will the financial market respond and what direction will the cryptocurrency space take?
I. The essence of the U.S. Treasury crisis and the chain reaction in the financial market
1. Short-term pressure and long-term hidden dangers of Treasury maturity
In June 2025, the U.S. will face a concentrated maturity of six trillion U.S. Treasuries, accounting for 65% of the total debt maturing for the year. Although the U.S. Treasury Department commonly uses a 'borrow new to pay old' model to deal with debt pressure (such as issuing new debt in February 2025 to repay 106.2 billion old debt), the market's long-term confidence in U.S. Treasuries has shown structural decline:
- Buyer loss: The proportion of overseas debt holders has dropped from 50% in 2008 to 22% in 2025, with the Federal Reserve becoming the largest buyer, with holdings soaring from 470 billion dollars in 2008 to 7 trillion dollars, forming a dependence on 'internal circulation'.
1. Short-term pressure and long-term hidden dangers of Treasury maturity
In June 2025, the U.S. will face a concentrated maturity of six trillion U.S. Treasuries, accounting for 65% of the total debt maturing for the year. Although the U.S. Treasury Department commonly uses a 'borrow new to pay old' model to deal with debt pressure (such as issuing new debt in February 2025 to repay 106.2 billion old debt), the market's long-term confidence in U.S. Treasuries has shown structural decline:
- Buyer loss: The proportion of overseas debt holders has dropped from 50% in 2008 to 22% in 2025, with the Federal Reserve becoming the largest buyer, with holdings soaring from 470 billion dollars in 2008 to 7 trillion dollars, forming a dependence on 'internal circulation'.
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U.S. GDP Negative Growth and Cryptocurrency Rise against the Trend: A Reconstruction of the Logic of Policy Expectations and Market Games
On May 1, 2025, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced that the GDP for the first quarter shrank by 0.3% on a year-over-year basis, marking the first negative growth since 2022. However, the cryptocurrency market staged a dramatic reversal: after briefly dipping below $94,000, Bitcoin quickly rebounded, and mainstream coins like Ethereum and Solana also recovered simultaneously, shifting market sentiment from panic to a bet on policy easing. This seemingly contradictory phenomenon of 'recession and prosperity' reveals the core logic of policy expectations and market games in the modern financial system.
I. Expectations of Policy Shift: Dovish Signals from the Federal Reserve Dominate Market Pricing
I. Expectations of Policy Shift: Dovish Signals from the Federal Reserve Dominate Market Pricing
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#币圈翻车日记:我的2024坑爹时刻
Bought a token of the once popular currency and model OMG, and seeing my numbers increase every day brings me great joy!
However, the good times didn't last, and a sudden delisting left me empty-handed!
Although I managed to stop the losses in time and didn't lose much capital, it did affect my mindset a bit!
But then again, I've been through bull and bear markets, and this little setback is not enough to take me down!
What I didn’t expect was that the other altcoin CSPR I chose suddenly had news of its founding team leaving, and the price crashed.
At this point, I couldn't help but wonder, am I a star?
So, after a period of adjustment and careful observation, I decided to strike back!
As long as I cannot be defeated, it will ultimately make me stronger!
This time, I chose CRV!
This is a very strong altcoin, and I believe it will definitely give me enough surprises!
I still remember the buying price at that time, which was 0.75!
But shortly after buying, there was a scandal involving the founder pledging tokens to buy a villa, and the price hit a new low every day, eventually collapsing to 0.2!
What's even more unfortunate is that I have already exhausted my bullets....
Bought a token of the once popular currency and model OMG, and seeing my numbers increase every day brings me great joy!
However, the good times didn't last, and a sudden delisting left me empty-handed!
Although I managed to stop the losses in time and didn't lose much capital, it did affect my mindset a bit!
But then again, I've been through bull and bear markets, and this little setback is not enough to take me down!
What I didn’t expect was that the other altcoin CSPR I chose suddenly had news of its founding team leaving, and the price crashed.
At this point, I couldn't help but wonder, am I a star?
So, after a period of adjustment and careful observation, I decided to strike back!
As long as I cannot be defeated, it will ultimately make me stronger!
This time, I chose CRV!
This is a very strong altcoin, and I believe it will definitely give me enough surprises!
I still remember the buying price at that time, which was 0.75!
But shortly after buying, there was a scandal involving the founder pledging tokens to buy a villa, and the price hit a new low every day, eventually collapsing to 0.2!
What's even more unfortunate is that I have already exhausted my bullets....
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The annual CPI is in line with expectations, but the core CPI has decreased by 0.1 compared to expectations.
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September CPI has been released.
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Non-farm data released!
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There are not many opportunities left
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There are not many opportunities left
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There are not many opportunities left
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There are not many opportunities left
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