I. The essence of the U.S. Treasury crisis and the chain reaction in the financial market

1. Short-term pressure and long-term hidden dangers of Treasury maturity

In June 2025, the U.S. will face a concentrated maturity of six trillion U.S. Treasuries, accounting for 65% of the total debt maturing for the year. Although the U.S. Treasury Department commonly uses a 'borrow new to pay old' model to deal with debt pressure (such as issuing new debt in February 2025 to repay 106.2 billion old debt), the market's long-term confidence in U.S. Treasuries has shown structural decline:

- Buyer loss: The proportion of overseas debt holders has dropped from 50% in 2008 to 22% in 2025, with the Federal Reserve becoming the largest buyer, with holdings soaring from 470 billion dollars in 2008 to 7 trillion dollars, forming a dependence on 'internal circulation'.

- Heavy interest burden: Interest expenditures on U.S. Treasuries will reach 1.3 trillion dollars in 2025, accounting for 26% of fiscal revenue, equivalent to 1.5 times the defense budget, with the fiscal deficit continuing to expand.

2. The triple risk transmission in the financial market

The U.S. Treasury issue may impact global markets through the following pathways:

- Liquidity tightening: If new bond issuance encounters obstacles, the Federal Reserve may be forced to expand its balance sheet to purchase bonds, leading to dollar credit overextension and triggering capital flight to gold, renminbi assets, or cryptocurrencies.

- Increased interest rate volatility: The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries has broken through 4.27%. If economic data exceed expectations or inflation rebounds, yields may climb further, suppressing risk asset valuations.

- Policy games intensify: The Trump administration attempted to alleviate debt pressure through trade wars and pressuring the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, but the Fed insisted on its independence, leading to a disconnection between monetary policy and fiscal needs, exacerbating market uncertainty.

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II. Bitcoin: The game of risk-hedging attributes and liquidity dividends

1. The logic of Bitcoin under the U.S. Treasury crisis

The trend of Bitcoin is highly correlated with U.S. Treasury yields and interest rate cut expectations:

- Negative correlation highlighted: Historical data shows a strong negative correlation between Bitcoin prices and the real yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries (with a correlation coefficient of -0.72 in 2023). If the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, declining real yields may push Bitcoin to break historical highs.

- Liquidity expectations: The market predicts a greater than 70% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in June 2025. If a loosening signal is released, cryptocurrencies, as a dual attribute of 'inflation hedge' and 'high-risk asset', will attract capital inflows.

2. Institutional trends and changes in market structure

The popularity of ETFs reshapes the investor structure of Bitcoin:

- Fund lock-up effect: Bitcoin ETFs like Grayscale primarily hold funds for the long term, leading to a decline in market liquidity and a slowdown in volatility, with Bitcoin gradually aligning with 'digital gold' attributes.

- Leverage alternatives: Institutions hold Bitcoin indirectly through listed companies such as MicroStrategy (currently holding over 300,000 coins), utilizing bond financing and collateral operations to achieve low-risk leverage, squeezing the survival space of altcoins.

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III. Altcoins: Liquidity exhaustion and the reconstruction of survival laws

1. Deep reasons for the failure of rotation logic

The traditional cycle model of 'Bitcoin leads, altcoins follow' has collapsed in 2025:

- Liquidity dilution: The number of altcoins surged from thousands in 2021 to 12 million, with the survival rate of MEME coins on the Solana chain being less than 4%, and retail funds being consumed by a large number of low-quality projects.

- Institutional withdrawal: Institutions are turning to Bitcoin leverage tools (such as MicroStrategy stocks), leading the altcoin market to become dominated by retail investors in a 'PVP game', with early entrants harvesting funds from latecomers.

2. Survivor selection and new opportunity windows

Despite the overall market slump, a few projects may still rise against the trend:

- Value benchmarks: Projects with real application scenarios (such as DeFi protocols), strong community consensus, and technical accumulation (like Ethereum Layer2 solutions) or targets for selective capital inflow.

- Event-driven: If Bitcoin breaks through 100,000 dollars, triggering FOMO sentiment, some altcoins may briefly follow suit, but caution is needed for 'flash-in-the-pan' trends.

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IV. Conclusion: A crossroads of risks and opportunities

1. Key variables in the financial market

- Federal Reserve policies: Whether to cut rates in June, the extent of the cuts, and subsequent statements will determine the U.S. Treasury yield curve and liquidity distribution.

- Geopolitics: The tariff policy of the Trump administration and the Sino-American game may exacerbate imported inflation, affecting Federal Reserve decision-making.

2. Cryptocurrency strategy recommendations

- Bitcoin: Mainly hold for the long term, with short-term focus on the 4.5% U.S. Treasury yield threshold; if it falls below 4%, it strengthens bullish signals.

- Altcoins: Strictly control positions, focus on technical iteration projects in the leading public chain ecosystems (such as Solana, Avalanche), and avoid participating in MEME coin speculation.

  • Conclusion: The maturity of six trillion U.S. Treasuries is not only a 'stress test' for U.S. finances, but also a watershed for the global financial system and the cryptocurrency market. In the interplay of liquidity games and policy uncertainties, only by penetrating short-term noise and grasping core variables can one take the lead in this capital reconstruction.