Laraine Nuner CwGW

$BTC 99.999,99 such a beautiful number, isn't it? 😁

Gold has just completed a candlestick, so it should be submerged at H4 in the range of 3270-3280, confirming the test of the bottom in the head and shoulders pattern as previously warned by the admin.
A part of China has stopped buying, so selling pressure will occur when prices cannot be pushed up.
At this moment, it is still not the right time to enter, the trend is still testing the bottom.

Continue with sw. Dom releases gently, you can take profit now. Wait for one more adjustment to re-enter. That's how it goes in a small frame. Alt moves like that. If it pulls, just release it to secure your profit. Wait for the adjustment again.

It looks like the old man is running like in 2024. Starting to hesitate
If so, then the double top pattern is completed, and a new cycle begins.
This new cycle may continue to hesitate, creating another double top pattern and starting to form a bottom around early August like in 2024.
Currently,
-3d and w support creating another top in the range of 100k-105k
But as mentioned, the 1d indicators are all in the overbought zone.
Rsi is showing signs of bearish divergence.
It's still advisable to wait; it might rise to the 96000 range for a sweep, but the possibility of sweeping both ends is very high.
Therefore, if you want to buy, you should wait for a sweep of the lower boundary.
Dom is quite high and shows signs of testing the top. So alt will struggle to run and will be further adjusted when the old man pulls dom up.

The H6 update has pulled the beard quite high. It's sw again. The elder doesn't want to go down yet, so you should wait a bit longer.

Confirmed break, so wait for a reaction at H6 support at 90500-90800 today. At H6, there will usually be a bounce because it's oversold on the timeframe (15min-1h), so no more shorting, cut the order and wait for H6 signal. If the tail rises high, you will switch.

So this morning, the elder confirmed that H1 and H2 are broken, and H4 is waiting to be retested at 91800-91900. The view of not buying into it like yesterday is also okay 😅

The market runs unpredictably. It's quite difficult to play these days.
But guys, pay attention to the next expiration date of the options contract.
Last time it expired on 25/4 with a value of 7.2 billion $
Max pain: 85000
Put/call ratio: 0.73 (simply understood as 100 open contracts with 73 being call options) (call (buy), put (sell))

Thus, with the price drop to 74508 before, the market makers have pushed it up in every way to avoid losses and bring profits. Why do I think it's the market makers or the exchange? Because with the input of 915M $ , no small fish or whale has enough strength to push it up. It's somewhat similar to manipulation.

Next, the short-term expiration will fall on the following days
2/5 - 9/5 - 16/5 - 30/5 these days will have fluctuations, guys, watch out for 30/5 as there will be significant changes, it is the monthly expiration, remember to set your calendar.

And this time I predict the max pain for May around: 94k-95k

$BTC I have a mock frame plan like this 😆

Short-term plan:
87889-94600-101240
Always buy below

$BTC Update
After creating a retest bottom at 74508, BTC has bounced back with news that President Trump is starting to soften his stance on tariffs. He promises to reduce taxes as much as possible because it seems that according to analysts, Trump has miscalculated the taxes. The method of calculating symmetrical taxes needs to be adjusted. The reason is very relevant to the current protest situation. This year in America is quite humorous (personally, I sense manipulation). For now, let's put aside plans for this Saturday and Sunday as there is no short-term plan.

Continue to observe the indicators on the chart..
The MA99 is about to cross below the MA200, so in the near future, I still forecast that even if it pushes up further, it will still sweep back to the 9x area, possibly 93000 (this is for next week or the week after)

Next, observe the RSI on the daily frame; BTC is reporting overbought
StochRSI >100
RSI(6) >87
The uptrend is confirmed when viewing the 3D signal line crossing the positive MACD and exceeding 85500 beforehand
Next is the 5D view where the signal line is about to cross up and the MACD supports further increase. Lacking a bit of momentum, probably due to the weekend.
(The weekly closing level above 95500 and the signal line crossing up with strong volume on the 5D view will continue to confirm the next uptrend target of 99-100k at the nearest). The image below
But currently, the 1D frame is already overbought
To be safe, it’s better to wait for a 1-2 adjustments in the 89k-90k range when the StochRSI enters the neutral area. RSI(6) returns to 69-70 can be tested on the 1D frame.

Uptrend. But always be cautious when buying on the dip, okay?

The 3D resistance break is quite beautiful, sweeping 3.82 is also nice. This is the view of small market cap assets which will look like this. They all have the potential to break 3D resistance and push 2-3 waves.

Thus, during the time you go to SW, ALT and MEME tend to test the support and resistance levels again.
Therefore, for short-term trading, one can buy at its support level if someone has already tested from support and bounced back above. And of course, aim to take profit in short-term trades.

Swamp

Gold: H4 confirms the head and shoulders pattern, so the upcoming period looks quite bad, making it difficult to increase; it may test 3247-3170 in the near future. Currently trading around 3327-3356. Momentum is decreasing. Therefore, now is not the time to buy.
USD: H4 has surpassed the Ma20, heading to test the Ma50, which is well-supported, and may move towards 101 soon.
Stocks show signs of slight recovery. BTC shows signs of strong recovery. It has surged quite strongly without a chance to test (it seems that some new billionaires have made some deals 😅) with the highest inflow since Trump took office in January ($915M).
The uptrend is confirmed after breaking the strong support at 85500, where the bears will enter to ensure the uptrend, and the weekly close has been above 90000.

Short-term plan: 87370-93947-97227-100385
Buy below and sell above😘

I do not encourage you to long/short.
If it is technical analysis, just look at the indicators and liquidity of BTC and find an entry point.
Do not buy when RSI is overbought as you may lose profits when FOMO is strong. But it is safer.

According to the latest news updates, the US is calling for China to participate in negotiations. The intention to compromise on tariffs with China means that there will be a reduction, but not to 0%. Currently, China has not made any announcements.

However, it can be said that Trump has lost and is beginning to soften as the yield on 2-10 year bonds has increased, reaching above 4.5%.
China had previously announced on April 10th that it is ready to negotiate with the attitude from the US respecting equality and is prepared to retaliate if national interests are affected.

This news was reported yesterday.

The news is supporting a re-examination of the 100k-105k range for the view in the second quarter.
The CPI for April will be announced in mid-May.
Longer-term, the maturity of U.S. debt could occur in August-September 2025, but it's hard to predict anything.
However, there is some strong FOMO due to two green candles.
Two important pieces of news are that China has temporarily stopped buying gold, and Trump wants to fire the chairman due to delays.

I still check the liquidity of the past three months, and the upper side is very thick. But in the last 24-48 hours, even this week, it has been nearly cleaned out. In fact, it has pushed too quickly, skipping the retest in the small frame. I haven't had time to compare whether the volume matches the price action.

So, according to the view, it has been bullish since the report broke 85500, always setting a positive SL with the rapid fluctuations always carrying high risks. Because it does not carry sustainability.

In summary, in the short term, BTC continues to rise with the expectation that the Fed will intervene to cut interest rates. This is the upcoming direction confirming the green candle from the previous day, and today it closed above 91,300. This growth is reasonable as there is only $BTC left in the investment portfolio.
There may be a correction, but it will continue to rise. Due to the risk from government bonds increasing sharply, there is a possibility of an economic recession if the yield reaches 5.5% on bonds causing an inversion of the yield curve.
Early investors are betting on the upcoming Fed, leading to a wave of FOMO as gold takes profit.
Thus, the threshold of 100k could also be 102k, which is the profit-taking expectation.

Update $BTC
Confirm the increase frame since breaking 85500.
News from China stops buying gold.
If your investment portfolio includes: Btc, gold, real estate, bonds, stocks.
Then currently.
Real estate is truly a real estate. Gold is under pressure to take profits when buying power decreases, government bonds are rising sharply, stocks are newly in the red.

Thus, in the near future: government bonds will rise due to selling pressure from the second largest creditor of the US, which is China. (The top position is Japan) supporting the USD to increase.

Regarding historical data, the yield on 10-year and 30-year US bonds is rising sharply, which will have a significant impact on the risk of recession with public debt at 36 trillion; just a 1% increase in yield is already quite expensive concerning Trump’s target of reducing 4.5 trillion this year.

Thus, btc will benefit in the investment portfolio.
On another note, according to last year's data, the Fed cut interest rates to inject money into buying bonds when bond yields were at 3.8-4.2.
Currently, it has reached 4.592%. Expectations for a cut are supported.

In the short term, rising bond yields are bad for btc because it will withdraw capital from risky assets. Like last time, btc and stocks were quite strongly withdrawn.

However, in the long term, its increase is good for the market, forcing the fed to intervene to avoid high yields that could increase public debt when the labor market is inefficient and spending is high. (Can be understood as borrowing at high interest rates while not generating much but spending a lot 😅 debt explosion bankruptcy) in reality, there has never been a default. Each time it reaches the ceiling, the debt ceiling is raised.

Thus, watch the CPI for April announced in mid-May