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心懷夢想的少女,想擁有一塊自己的土地創造理想家園🌱🌿寄望區塊鏈技術可以成為將來家園的金流支持與來源🏡✨
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Yesterday I saw the stock market take another hit, and suddenly I thought of the KOL I just stopped following recently, but I couldn't find them. Who knows where Dao i Chang i Tan i Bitcoin (?) went?
Yesterday I saw the stock market take another hit, and suddenly I thought of the KOL I just stopped following recently, but I couldn't find them.

Who knows where Dao i Chang i Tan i Bitcoin (?) went?
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According to existing information, there is no evidence that 'The Simpsons' predicted any episode where Bitcoin would drop to $1. However, the show does mention or imply Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies in several episodes: 1. Season 31 Episode 13 'Frinkcoin': In this episode, Professor Frink creates a cryptocurrency called 'Frinkcoin', becoming the richest person in Springfield. 2. Season 32 Episode 18 'Burger Kings': In this episode, the stock ticker on the screen shows the price of Bitcoin as infinity (∞), which is seen as a humorous suggestion that the price of Bitcoin could rise infinitely. 3. Season 35 Episode 5 'Treehouse of Horror XXXIV': In one of the stories 'Wild Barts Can’t Be Token', Bart is transformed into an NFT and goes on an adventure in the blockchain, which is a direct reference to NFT and blockchain technology. Additionally, in Season 25 Episode 7 'Yellow Subterfuge', aired on December 8, 2013, Krusty the Clown mentions that he lost all his money on Bitcoin. In summary, while 'The Simpsons' has mentioned cryptocurrencies multiple times in episodes, none predict that the price of Bitcoin would drop to $1. $BTC
According to existing information, there is no evidence that 'The Simpsons' predicted any episode where Bitcoin would drop to $1. However, the show does mention or imply Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies in several episodes:
1. Season 31 Episode 13 'Frinkcoin': In this episode, Professor Frink creates a cryptocurrency called 'Frinkcoin', becoming the richest person in Springfield.
2. Season 32 Episode 18 'Burger Kings': In this episode, the stock ticker on the screen shows the price of Bitcoin as infinity (∞), which is seen as a humorous suggestion that the price of Bitcoin could rise infinitely.
3. Season 35 Episode 5 'Treehouse of Horror XXXIV': In one of the stories 'Wild Barts Can’t Be Token', Bart is transformed into an NFT and goes on an adventure in the blockchain, which is a direct reference to NFT and blockchain technology.

Additionally, in Season 25 Episode 7 'Yellow Subterfuge', aired on December 8, 2013, Krusty the Clown mentions that he lost all his money on Bitcoin.

In summary, while 'The Simpsons' has mentioned cryptocurrencies multiple times in episodes, none predict that the price of Bitcoin would drop to $1.
$BTC
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Did you see that extremely greedy green in November? That was the tender chive green above my head when I first stepped into this market. Did you see that extreme fearful red in March? That was the blood dripping from my heart when I finally realized that I was just one of the last fat sheep to be slaughtered. Redder than the market. At this point, I have to admit, although I really don't want to, my chives have grown too obediently and too perfectly. $ETH $SOL $DOGE 📈🙏🏽🥹 {future}(ETHUSDT) {spot}(SOLUSDT) {future}(BTCUSDT)
Did you see that extremely greedy green in November?
That was the tender chive green above my head when I first stepped into this market.

Did you see that extreme fearful red in March?
That was the blood dripping from my heart when I finally realized that I was just one of the last fat sheep to be slaughtered.
Redder than the market.

At this point, I have to admit, although I really don't want to, my chives have grown too obediently and too perfectly.
$ETH $SOL $DOGE 📈🙏🏽🥹
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#交易机器人 The market never sleeps, profits keep coming! Use Binance trading bots to automate your trading strategies! 🤖 Previously, I used 100U to experiment with a spot grid bot once, testing its performance in a volatile market. The result was unexpected - a stable profit of 8.5U (approximately 8.5% return) in 7 days! ✅ 24/7 automatic trading - even while I sleep, the bot continues to operate ✅ Smart buying low and selling high - accurately executing strategies, never missing any arbitrage opportunities ✅ Avoiding emotional influence - not making wrong decisions due to market fluctuations, which I find the most valuable 📊 The strategy for this experiment: 🔹 Spot grid trading - profiting through automatic buying low and selling high in a volatile market 🔹 Arbitrage bot - earning small stable returns from price fluctuations 🔹 Rebalancing bot - automatically adjusting positions based on market changes, ensuring long-term stable appreciation ⚠️ Of course, the bot is not a guaranteed profit tool; it still requires appropriate parameter adjustments and monitoring based on market conditions. But from the results of this 100U experiment, it is clear that trading bots can effectively enhance trading efficiency and maximize the value of funds! 📌 If you haven't tried the Binance trading bot yet, now with poor market prices and sideways fluctuations, it's the best time! You can also explore the bot market and replicate the best-performing strategies to make your funds work for you!💰 $BNB {future}(BNBUSDT) $SOL
#交易机器人 The market never sleeps, profits keep coming! Use Binance trading bots to automate your trading strategies! 🤖

Previously, I used 100U to experiment with a spot grid bot once, testing its performance in a volatile market. The result was unexpected - a stable profit of 8.5U (approximately 8.5% return) in 7 days!

✅ 24/7 automatic trading - even while I sleep, the bot continues to operate
✅ Smart buying low and selling high - accurately executing strategies, never missing any arbitrage opportunities
✅ Avoiding emotional influence - not making wrong decisions due to market fluctuations, which I find the most valuable

📊 The strategy for this experiment:
🔹 Spot grid trading - profiting through automatic buying low and selling high in a volatile market
🔹 Arbitrage bot - earning small stable returns from price fluctuations
🔹 Rebalancing bot - automatically adjusting positions based on market changes, ensuring long-term stable appreciation

⚠️ Of course, the bot is not a guaranteed profit tool; it still requires appropriate parameter adjustments and monitoring based on market conditions. But from the results of this 100U experiment, it is clear that trading bots can effectively enhance trading efficiency and maximize the value of funds!

📌 If you haven't tried the Binance trading bot yet, now with poor market prices and sideways fluctuations, it's the best time! You can also explore the bot market and replicate the best-performing strategies to make your funds work for you!💰
$BNB
$SOL
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#白宫首届加密货币峰会 Objectively speaking, this is indeed a historic moment in the cryptocurrency world. Although everyone, who has been pressed down by the market for several months, had great expectations for this summit based on their short-term interests, it turned out once again to be a disappointment, leading to immediate disdain for the summit — understandable, but in the long run, this summit is indeed a milestone. Although it differs from your and my expectations, for the technical community and crypto enterprises that have been deeply involved in this field for a long time, this is indeed the newly elected president, who has fulfilled his promises before and after the election. Moreover, if you calm down and think about it, the speed at which slogans are implemented as policy directions is really quite fast. Especially compared to our country's parliament, which only knows how to fight all day, and the politicians who issue empty election promises... there's no comparison.
#白宫首届加密货币峰会 Objectively speaking, this is indeed a historic moment in the cryptocurrency world.
Although everyone, who has been pressed down by the market for several months, had great expectations for this summit based on their short-term interests, it turned out once again to be a disappointment, leading to immediate disdain for the summit — understandable, but in the long run, this summit is indeed a milestone.

Although it differs from your and my expectations, for the technical community and crypto enterprises that have been deeply involved in this field for a long time, this is indeed the newly elected president, who has fulfilled his promises before and after the election.

Moreover, if you calm down and think about it, the speed at which slogans are implemented as policy directions is really quite fast.

Especially compared to our country's parliament, which only knows how to fight all day, and the politicians who issue empty election promises... there's no comparison.
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Grok3: Bear Market or Bull Market?The question everyone is most concerned about: Is it a bull market or a bear market now? I asked Grok3 from Musk, let's see how accurate his analysis is~~ 🤖: Based on the data I could gather and the current date (February 23, 2025), here is the analysis of whether the cryptocurrency market is in a bull or bear market, and the stage of its market trends. It is important to note that the cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and conclusions are based on existing information and historical patterns, but cannot guarantee absolute accuracy. The following analysis integrates market cycle theories, historical trends, and currently available views.

Grok3: Bear Market or Bull Market?

The question everyone is most concerned about: Is it a bull market or a bear market now? I asked Grok3 from Musk, let's see how accurate his analysis is~~
🤖:
Based on the data I could gather and the current date (February 23, 2025), here is the analysis of whether the cryptocurrency market is in a bull or bear market, and the stage of its market trends. It is important to note that the cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and conclusions are based on existing information and historical patterns, but cannot guarantee absolute accuracy. The following analysis integrates market cycle theories, historical trends, and currently available views.
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Wealth MindsetWhen the market is poor and people are anxious, I want to share some learning insights. After all, we all know that maintaining calm in the market and continuing to learn is the key to long-term success. 1. Manage your finances in a way that allows you to sleep well at night. Some people cannot sleep well unless they earn the highest returns; others can only rest easy by making conservative investments. Everyone has their own ideas. However, in terms of all financial decisions, 'Does this allow me to sleep well at night?' is the highest guiding principle that applies universally. 2. If you want to become a better investor, the most effective thing you can do is to increase your investment time.

Wealth Mindset

When the market is poor and people are anxious, I want to share some learning insights. After all, we all know that maintaining calm in the market and continuing to learn is the key to long-term success.

1. Manage your finances in a way that allows you to sleep well at night.

Some people cannot sleep well unless they earn the highest returns; others can only rest easy by making conservative investments. Everyone has their own ideas.
However, in terms of all financial decisions, 'Does this allow me to sleep well at night?' is the highest guiding principle that applies universally.

2. If you want to become a better investor, the most effective thing you can do is to increase your investment time.
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#钱包活动洞察 2025 cryptocurrency wallet activity observation: ETH and XRP grow strongly, DOGE is slightly weak Recent wallet data in the crypto market shows that investors’ coin holding strategies are changing as the market fluctuates and adjusts. According to the latest data, Ethereum (ETH) has added 645,000 new wallets in a short period of time, showing a strong growth momentum, while Bitcoin (BTC) has also added 102,000 new wallets, continuing to attract market attention. Wallet growth: • Ethereum (ETH): 645,000 new wallets, making it the fastest growing asset • Bitcoin (BTC): 102,000 new wallets, steady investor attraction • Ripple (XRP): 58,000 new wallets, strong performance • Dogecoin (DOGE): 29,000 new wallets, but sentiment weakens • Chainlink (LINK): 3,300 wallets drop, indicating selling pressure Market Sentiment and Price Volatility After breaking through $100,000 at the beginning of the year, Bitcoin quickly fell back to around $92,000, affected by market adjustments and investment behavior of Wall Street institutions. At the same time, XRP performed relatively steadily, with its market value increasing by 18% in the first three days of the year, showing that investors have high confidence in it. Although the number of DOGE wallets is still increasing, the growth rate is not as fast as that of mainstream assets in the market. Investment Observations and Opportunities The market is still in a period of volatility, especially Ethereum and Bitcoin, which are experiencing large fluctuations. There are certain arbitrage opportunities for short-term traders. In the long run, ETH’s strong wallet growth may indicate that its technology and application ecosystem are still widely recognized. Investors should pay attention to changes in market trends and grasp the appropriate entry opportunities.
#钱包活动洞察 2025 cryptocurrency wallet activity observation: ETH and XRP grow strongly, DOGE is slightly weak

Recent wallet data in the crypto market shows that investors’ coin holding strategies are changing as the market fluctuates and adjusts. According to the latest data, Ethereum (ETH) has added 645,000 new wallets in a short period of time, showing a strong growth momentum, while Bitcoin (BTC) has also added 102,000 new wallets, continuing to attract market attention.

Wallet growth:
• Ethereum (ETH): 645,000 new wallets, making it the fastest growing asset
• Bitcoin (BTC): 102,000 new wallets, steady investor attraction
• Ripple (XRP): 58,000 new wallets, strong performance
• Dogecoin (DOGE): 29,000 new wallets, but sentiment weakens
• Chainlink (LINK): 3,300 wallets drop, indicating selling pressure

Market Sentiment and Price Volatility
After breaking through $100,000 at the beginning of the year, Bitcoin quickly fell back to around $92,000, affected by market adjustments and investment behavior of Wall Street institutions. At the same time, XRP performed relatively steadily, with its market value increasing by 18% in the first three days of the year, showing that investors have high confidence in it. Although the number of DOGE wallets is still increasing, the growth rate is not as fast as that of mainstream assets in the market.

Investment Observations and Opportunities
The market is still in a period of volatility, especially Ethereum and Bitcoin, which are experiencing large fluctuations. There are certain arbitrage opportunities for short-term traders. In the long run, ETH’s strong wallet growth may indicate that its technology and application ecosystem are still widely recognized. Investors should pay attention to changes in market trends and grasp the appropriate entry opportunities.
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#价格趋势分析 🚀#Ethereumis approaching key resistance, is a breakthrough imminent? 💥 $ETH has been rising steadily recently, up +12% in the past 7 days, and is currently testing the key resistance of $2,800⚡️. On-chain data shows that large investors’ holdings have increased, trading volumes have climbed, and expectations for spot ETFs continue to ferment📈. If it breaks through, the next target will be to return to $3,000? The opportunity has come, what are you waiting for? 🔥
#价格趋势分析 🚀#Ethereumis approaching key resistance, is a breakthrough imminent? 💥

$ETH has been rising steadily recently, up +12% in the past 7 days, and is currently testing the key resistance of $2,800⚡️. On-chain data shows that large investors’ holdings have increased, trading volumes have climbed, and expectations for spot ETFs continue to ferment📈. If it breaks through, the next target will be to return to $3,000? The opportunity has come, what are you waiting for? 🔥
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What is the current center of promoting all humanity? It's stories! Stories, that is, IP. "By making IP programmable, Story introduces a new digital market for one of the most valuable asset classes in the world." I hope the decision I shared about gas fees the day before yesterday has made the flow of abundant capital smoother, allowing the fortunate brothers and sisters who received it to earn money together~
What is the current center of promoting all humanity? It's stories! Stories, that is, IP.
"By making IP programmable, Story introduces a new digital market for one of the most valuable asset classes in the world."

I hope the decision I shared about gas fees the day before yesterday has made the flow of abundant capital smoother, allowing the fortunate brothers and sisters who received it to earn money together~
MarsBit News
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IP Tokens Surge 100%! Is the Story Protocol Project Going to Usher in Disney's Downfall?
Written by: Alvis

The whirlwind of IP tokens is blowing even more wildly than meme coins in the crypto world!

Recently, a new token emerged in the crypto space — the IP token of Story Protocol, which skyrocketed from $1.36 to $2.8 in four days, reaching a market cap of $2.8 billion, directly topping the Binance contract gain list. Retail investors are cursing the market makers while frantically betting, the scene is comparable to grabbing tickets during the Spring Festival.

But this time, I advise everyone not to rush to criticize. Because this project may not be a meme coin, but a three-body civilization's dimensional strike of 'blockchain + IP + AI', backed by top-tier capital like a16z and Polychain, raising $140 million with a valuation of $2.25 billion, and launching its mainnet with an epic conspiracy: to put all of the world's intellectual property (IP) on-chain!
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Think about market predictions. We are very, very bad at this. Everyone knows that. I haven't met an investor who truly believes that market predictions are accurate or useful overall. However, there is still a huge demand for predictions, whether from the media or financial advisors. Why is that? Psychologist Philip Tetlock once wrote: "We need to believe we live in a predictable, controllable world, so we consult experts who sound authoritative, and they promise to satisfy that need." Satisfying that need is a very fitting description. Wanting to believe that things are under control is an emotional craving that needs to be fulfilled, rather than an analytical problem that needs to be calculated and solved. The illusion of control is more persuasive than the uncertain reality, so we always cling to those stories that allow us to control the outcomes. —— "The Wealthy Mindset" #FTX赔付
Think about market predictions.
We are very, very bad at this.

Everyone knows that. I haven't met an investor who truly believes that market predictions are accurate or useful overall. However, there is still a huge demand for predictions, whether from the media or financial advisors.
Why is that?
Psychologist Philip Tetlock once wrote: "We need to believe we live in a predictable, controllable world, so we consult experts who sound authoritative, and they promise to satisfy that need."

Satisfying that need is a very fitting description.

Wanting to believe that things are under control is an emotional craving that needs to be fulfilled, rather than an analytical problem that needs to be calculated and solved.
The illusion of control is more persuasive than the uncertain reality, so we always cling to those stories that allow us to control the outcomes.

—— "The Wealthy Mindset"
#FTX赔付
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Thanks to Brother Chicken for initiating the mutual aid activity. Also thanks to @Square-Creator-904af1710ce7 , I received it! Let's continue to spread the love ❤️ But it's late, this young lady needs to sleep early and wake up early. For those who follow me and like my 'Other' articles, I will pass on the love to you~
Thanks to Brother Chicken for initiating the mutual aid activity. Also thanks to @撸顿猪脚饭 , I received it! Let's continue to spread the love ❤️
But it's late, this young lady needs to sleep early and wake up early. For those who follow me and like my 'Other' articles, I will pass on the love to you~
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#人工智能与稳定币 Old Horse's latest pinned post, at 8 PM US time on Monday, will announce the latest version of xAI, GROK 3, which claims to be the smartest AI in the world! Currently, the two hottest coins on-chain are worth trying if you want to experience the wealth effect. One is GROK on the ETH chain (with a robot image), currently priced at $0.005, and the other is GROK3 on the SOL chain, priced at $0.002. You can buy them using a Binance wallet, both are unofficial markets and are for reference only, profits and losses are your own responsibility. Surprisingly, the volume of discussion in the square is not high at the moment, and it’s unlikely that everyone has overlooked it. Perhaps it’s a deliberate suppression? At the same time, it makes me start to think about how other false messages often explode so quickly, how much force is behind the scenes pushing it, so that the messages you want the public to see can be seen by you.
#人工智能与稳定币 Old Horse's latest pinned post, at 8 PM US time on Monday, will announce the latest version of xAI, GROK 3, which claims to be the smartest AI in the world!

Currently, the two hottest coins on-chain are worth trying if you want to experience the wealth effect. One is GROK on the ETH chain (with a robot image), currently priced at $0.005, and the other is GROK3 on the SOL chain, priced at $0.002. You can buy them using a Binance wallet, both are unofficial markets and are for reference only, profits and losses are your own responsibility.

Surprisingly, the volume of discussion in the square is not high at the moment, and it’s unlikely that everyone has overlooked it. Perhaps it’s a deliberate suppression?
At the same time, it makes me start to think about how other false messages often explode so quickly, how much force is behind the scenes pushing it, so that the messages you want the public to see can be seen by you.
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"When You Believe Anything""Hindsight, or the ability to interpret the past, provides us with a fantasy that the world can be understood; it also offers us a fantasy that the world operates in a reasonable way, even when situations are unreasonable. In many areas, this is a major source of errors." "Most people, when faced with things they do not understand, do not realize they do not understand, because they can come up with a plausible explanation based on their unique perspective and experiences in the world, no matter how limited those experiences may be. We all want the complex world we live in to make sense, so we tell ourselves stories to fill in the blanks that should actually be blind spots."

"When You Believe Anything"

"Hindsight, or the ability to interpret the past, provides us with a fantasy that the world can be understood; it also offers us a fantasy that the world operates in a reasonable way, even when situations are unreasonable. In many areas, this is a major source of errors."

"Most people, when faced with things they do not understand, do not realize they do not understand, because they can come up with a plausible explanation based on their unique perspective and experiences in the world, no matter how limited those experiences may be. We all want the complex world we live in to make sense, so we tell ourselves stories to fill in the blanks that should actually be blind spots."
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What exactly happened with #BNBChainMeme热潮 CZ, don't listen to others' nonsense, just go straight to the screenshots!! They still insist on their original intention, and they are NOT issuing MEME coins! You all should stop rushing into any Pi Xiu coin scams and getting cut!!! But seriously, this operation of releasing dog photos needs to be announced first, it's already quite meme:))
What exactly happened with #BNBChainMeme热潮 CZ, don't listen to others' nonsense, just go straight to the screenshots!!

They still insist on their original intention, and they are NOT issuing MEME coins! You all should stop rushing into any Pi Xiu coin scams and getting cut!!!

But seriously, this operation of releasing dog photos needs to be announced first, it's already quite meme:))
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Bullish
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#BNBChainMeme热潮 BNB is crazy about issuing MEME coins? CZ Dynasty, will there be a new "Dog King"? The MEME coin market on BNB Chain has taken off in a straight line in the past few days. Some people say that this is the revival of the BNB chain, or that CZ’s halo is still shining? ! From the collapse of FTX to the SEC storm, the power structure in the cryptocurrency circle has long been reshuffled, but Binance still stands at the top of the food chain. BNB Chain, the crypto empire created by CZ, still stands strong today. This time, in addition to allowing the BNB ecosystem to regain market attention, many people are also looking forward to whether BNB Chain will also give birth to its own "Dog King", a BNB version of WIF or BONK? It’s exciting just thinking about it! But then again, although MEME coins can make people rich overnight, they can also return to zero in a second. Hype is one thing, risk control is another. Remember what CZ said: "Risk awareness is more important than FOMO." Have you followed this trend? Or are you already calculating how many times less you’ve earned? Chat in the comments section to see if there are any new opportunities! $BNB
#BNBChainMeme热潮 BNB is crazy about issuing MEME coins? CZ Dynasty, will there be a new "Dog King"?

The MEME coin market on BNB Chain has taken off in a straight line in the past few days. Some people say that this is the revival of the BNB chain, or that CZ’s halo is still shining? !

From the collapse of FTX to the SEC storm, the power structure in the cryptocurrency circle has long been reshuffled, but Binance still stands at the top of the food chain. BNB Chain, the crypto empire created by CZ, still stands strong today.

This time, in addition to allowing the BNB ecosystem to regain market attention, many people are also looking forward to whether BNB Chain will also give birth to its own "Dog King", a BNB version of WIF or BONK? It’s exciting just thinking about it!

But then again, although MEME coins can make people rich overnight, they can also return to zero in a second. Hype is one thing, risk control is another. Remember what CZ said: "Risk awareness is more important than FOMO."

Have you followed this trend? Or are you already calculating how many times less you’ve earned? Chat in the comments section to see if there are any new opportunities!
$BNB
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I asked ChatGPT whether the next cryptocurrency market will be a bull market 🐮 or a bear market 🐻? The following is only speculation based on current market observations and some macro factors. It is not investment advice or an exact prediction and can only be used as a reference. Analyze from the following aspects: 🐮Factors of bull market possibility 1. Increased participation of institutions and enterprises • As more and more institutional funds enter the market and some companies include cryptocurrencies in their asset allocation, market confidence is expected to be boosted. 2. Technological innovation and ecological improvement • DeFi, NFT, Web3 and other fields continue to develop, and if there are breakthrough innovations, they will attract funds to flow into the market. 3. Supervision gradually becomes clearer • If regulatory policies in various countries become clearer and support innovation, market risks will be reduced and investors may be more willing to enter the market. 📈Assuming that these factors continue to ferment, it is possible to drive the market towards a bull market. My personal rough estimate is that the probability of a bull market scenario may be around 55%. 🐻 Factors that increase the likelihood of a bear market 1. Global macroeconomic uncertainty • If the global economy faces inflation, rising interest rates or other economic shocks, it may trigger a decline in risk appetite among funds, which in turn will drag down the crypto market. 2. Regulatory risks and policy suppression • Some countries may adopt stricter regulatory measures on crypto assets, which will have a negative impact on market sentiment. 3. Market volatility and low sentiment • The crypto market has always been volatile. If the market encounters continuous adjustments or panic selling, it may further lean towards a bearish market in the short term. 📉Taking all these factors into account, if the above negative impacts materialize, the probability of it driving a bear market scenario may be around 45%. Summarize Based on current observations and macro analysis, a rough estimate is: • Probability of a bull scenario: ~55% • Probability of a bear market scenario: ~45% However, these two figures are only conceptual estimates. The market is changing rapidly and many factors are influencing it. Any single event or policy change may disrupt the original balance. Therefore, investors should continue to pay attention to the latest information and make decisions based on their own risk tolerance. #市场清算 #山寨季何时到来?
I asked ChatGPT whether the next cryptocurrency market will be a bull market 🐮 or a bear market 🐻?

The following is only speculation based on current market observations and some macro factors. It is not investment advice or an exact prediction and can only be used as a reference. Analyze from the following aspects:

🐮Factors of bull market possibility
1. Increased participation of institutions and enterprises
• As more and more institutional funds enter the market and some companies include cryptocurrencies in their asset allocation, market confidence is expected to be boosted.
2. Technological innovation and ecological improvement
• DeFi, NFT, Web3 and other fields continue to develop, and if there are breakthrough innovations, they will attract funds to flow into the market.
3. Supervision gradually becomes clearer
• If regulatory policies in various countries become clearer and support innovation, market risks will be reduced and investors may be more willing to enter the market.

📈Assuming that these factors continue to ferment, it is possible to drive the market towards a bull market. My personal rough estimate is that the probability of a bull market scenario may be around 55%.

🐻 Factors that increase the likelihood of a bear market
1. Global macroeconomic uncertainty
• If the global economy faces inflation, rising interest rates or other economic shocks, it may trigger a decline in risk appetite among funds, which in turn will drag down the crypto market.
2. Regulatory risks and policy suppression
• Some countries may adopt stricter regulatory measures on crypto assets, which will have a negative impact on market sentiment.
3. Market volatility and low sentiment
• The crypto market has always been volatile. If the market encounters continuous adjustments or panic selling, it may further lean towards a bearish market in the short term.

📉Taking all these factors into account, if the above negative impacts materialize, the probability of it driving a bear market scenario may be around 45%.

Summarize

Based on current observations and macro analysis, a rough estimate is:
• Probability of a bull scenario: ~55%
• Probability of a bear market scenario: ~45%

However, these two figures are only conceptual estimates. The market is changing rapidly and many factors are influencing it. Any single event or policy change may disrupt the original balance. Therefore, investors should continue to pay attention to the latest information and make decisions based on their own risk tolerance.
#市场清算 #山寨季何时到来?
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Push Organization
Push Organization
加密城市 Crypto City
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Collapse of faith, the altcoin season is over? The market is heading towards nihilism, how to win in the crypto gamble?
The cryptocurrency market is undergoing a profound transformation, especially for newcomers who entered the industry in the past 12 to 16 months.

What once seemed like a relatively simple trading method—operating on centralized exchanges to 'have one foot in success'—has now become increasingly complex. The entire market landscape resembles a high-volatility gambling arena rather than a traditional financial trading market, demanding unprecedented agility and market awareness from traders.

The 'buy and hold' (HODL) strategy that once worked well has basically become ineffective. The holding period for everyone has significantly shortened, compressed from several months to just a few weeks, or even days. (Remember the classic advice from those old players? Stick to 'buying altcoins at low prices and holding until the bull market peak to sell')
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$ETH Quoted from "The Mindset of Getting Rich"—— “Just like buying a car, you only have a few choices: 1️⃣You can pay the price and accept volatility and turbulence; or 2️⃣ You can find an asset with lower uncertainty and lower returns, which is equivalent to a used car; or 3️⃣You can also try to become a car thief: try to earn rewards while avoiding the volatility that comes with it. Many people choose the third option when investing. Although they have good intentions and abide by the law, they are like car thieves who use tricks and strategies that allow them to get paid without paying the price. They buy and sell frequently, trying to sell before the next recession hits and buy before the next boom arrives. Most investors with even a little experience know that volatility is both real and common, so the seemingly logical next step for many is to try to avoid it. However, the God of Money does not look favorably upon those who seek rewards without paying a price. Some car thieves get away with it, but many more are caught and punished. The same goes for investing. "
$ETH Quoted from "The Mindset of Getting Rich"——
“Just like buying a car, you only have a few choices:

1️⃣You can pay the price and accept volatility and turbulence;
or
2️⃣ You can find an asset with lower uncertainty and lower returns, which is equivalent to a used car;
or
3️⃣You can also try to become a car thief: try to earn rewards while avoiding the volatility that comes with it.

Many people choose the third option when investing.

Although they have good intentions and abide by the law, they are like car thieves who use tricks and strategies that allow them to get paid without paying the price.

They buy and sell frequently, trying to sell before the next recession hits and buy before the next boom arrives.

Most investors with even a little experience know that volatility is both real and common, so the seemingly logical next step for many is to try to avoid it.

However, the God of Money does not look favorably upon those who seek rewards without paying a price.
Some car thieves get away with it, but many more are caught and punished.

The same goes for investing. "
See original
#山寨季何时到来? Quoted from "The Millionaire Mindset": "You will hear people say to 'hold stocks for the long term', which is good advice. But do you know how difficult it is to maintain a long-term holding perspective when the stock market crashes? Successful investment strategies, like other valuable things, come with a price, but their pricing units are not dollars and cents, but rather volatility, fear, doubt, uncertainty, and regret. Unless you manage these emotions in a timely manner, it is easy to overlook them. If you lack the ability to recognize that investing comes at a cost, it will tempt us to try to get something for nothing, which is akin to shoplifting, and rarely results in a good outcome." "Just like buying a car, you only have a few options: 1️⃣ You can pay the price and accept volatility and turmoil; or 2️⃣ You can find an asset with lower uncertainty and lower returns, equivalent to a used car; or 3️⃣ You can also try to become a car thief: attempting to earn returns while avoiding the accompanying volatility. Many people choose the third option when investing. Although their intentions are good and they comply with regulations, they act like joyriders, employing certain techniques and strategies to gain returns without paying the price. They frequently buy and sell, trying to sell before the next downturn hits and rush to buy before the next boom arrives. The vast majority of investors, even those with just a bit of experience, know that volatility is real and common, so many will take what seems to be the logical next step: trying to avoid volatility. However, the money gods do not favor those who seek rewards without paying the price, some joyriders may escape by chance, but more are caught and punished. The same goes for investing."
#山寨季何时到来?
Quoted from "The Millionaire Mindset":
"You will hear people say to 'hold stocks for the long term', which is good advice.
But do you know how difficult it is to maintain a long-term holding perspective when the stock market crashes?

Successful investment strategies, like other valuable things, come with a price, but their pricing units are not dollars and cents,
but rather volatility, fear, doubt, uncertainty, and regret. Unless you manage these emotions in a timely manner, it is easy to overlook them.

If you lack the ability to recognize that investing comes at a cost, it will tempt us to try to get something for nothing, which is akin to shoplifting, and rarely results in a good outcome."

"Just like buying a car, you only have a few options:
1️⃣ You can pay the price and accept volatility and turmoil;
or
2️⃣ You can find an asset with lower uncertainty and lower returns, equivalent to a used car;
or
3️⃣ You can also try to become a car thief: attempting to earn returns while avoiding the accompanying volatility.

Many people choose the third option when investing.

Although their intentions are good and they comply with regulations, they act like joyriders, employing certain techniques and strategies to gain returns without paying the price.

They frequently buy and sell, trying to sell before the next downturn hits and rush to buy before the next boom arrives.

The vast majority of investors, even those with just a bit of experience, know that volatility is real and common, so many will take what seems to be the logical next step: trying to avoid volatility.

However, the money gods do not favor those who seek rewards without paying the price,
some joyriders may escape by chance, but more are caught and punished.

The same goes for investing."
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