The question everyone is most concerned about: Is it a bull market or a bear market now? I asked Grok3 from Musk, let's see how accurate his analysis is~~
🤖:
Based on the data I could gather and the current date (February 23, 2025), here is the analysis of whether the cryptocurrency market is in a bull or bear market, and the stage of its market trends. It is important to note that the cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and conclusions are based on existing information and historical patterns, but cannot guarantee absolute accuracy. The following analysis integrates market cycle theories, historical trends, and currently available views.
Current Market Situation: Bull Market or Bear Market?
As of February 23, 2025, determining whether the cryptocurrency market is in a bull or bear market requires judging from multiple perspectives, including price trends, market sentiment, technical indicators, and macro factors. Here is the analysis:
Historical Cycles and Bitcoin Halving
Bitcoin halving is usually a catalyst for bull markets. In the past, halvings (such as in 2012, 2016, 2020) led to a significant bull market phase within 12-18 months. The fourth halving will occur on April 19, 2024, which is about 10 months from now.
If we refer to historical patterns, it typically takes about 1-1.5 years from the halving to the peak of the bull market, which suggests that from early to mid-2025 (i.e., now to the next few months) may still be in the upward phase of the bull market. However, the specific peak timing varies depending on the market environment.
Price Trends and Market Momentum
According to data (such as predictions from CryptoQuant and VanEck), Bitcoin is expected to break $100,000 by the end of 2024, reaching an all-time high (around $108,268), indicating characteristics of a bull market (sustained price increases and investor optimism). However, data from early 2025 (such as posts from Glassnode on X) shows that Bitcoin has fallen 5.9% since February, Ethereum and Solana have fallen 16.9% and 33.1% respectively, and meme coins have fallen 37.4%, suggesting signs of slowing market momentum.
This indicates that the market may be transitioning from the "frenzy phase" of the bull market to the "adjustment phase", but has not yet entered a bear market (usually defined as a drop of 20% or more from the peak and sustained sluggishness).
Market Indicators
Futures Market Cooling: Glassnode data shows that Bitcoin's open interest (OI) in futures contracts has decreased by 11.1% in the last 30 days, Ethereum by 23.8%, and meme coins by 52.1%, indicating a reduction in leverage and a decrease in speculative fervor. This is typically a characteristic of the late stage of a bull market or an adjustment period, rather than the beginning of a bear market.
Funding Rates: Bitcoin and Ethereum's funding rates are still slightly positive, but Solana has turned negative, and meme coins' funding rates are also negative, indicating an increase in bearish sentiment for risk assets. This may mean that the bull market still has support for mainstream coins, but altcoins and meme coins have begun to weaken.
Expert Predictions and Market Sentiment
CryptoQuant analysts (January 2025) believe that the current bull market began in January 2023 and may peak in the first or second quarter of 2025. The current phase is considered "late bull market", and they recommend cautious trading.
VanEck predicts Bitcoin will reach a "mid-term peak" (around $180,000) in the first quarter of 2025, followed by a 30% drop, and then set a new high by the end of the year. This aligns with current signs of market cooling.
Posts on X (such as
@NPC888666
) mentioned that "the bull market has not yet arrived" but "will definitely come", reflecting the view that the current stage is a bubble phase, and the true comprehensive bull market (including altcoins rising together) has not yet been reached.
Macroeconomic Environment
The friendly attitude of the new U.S. government (after Trump took office) towards cryptocurrencies (such as promoting Bitcoin as a strategic reserve) may extend the bull market. Additionally, the U.S. Federal Reserve's shift to a loose policy at the end of 2024 also supports risk assets.
However, if the Federal Reserve's policy shifts to tightening or geopolitical risks increase, it could prematurely end the bull market.
Preliminary Conclusion: Based on the above data, the cryptocurrency market is still in a bull market, but may have entered the late stage of the bull market or an adjustment phase. Bitcoin's dominance and price stability indicate that the bull market has not yet ended, but the weakness of altcoins and meme coins suggests that market enthusiasm is diverging, not reaching a comprehensive frenzy.
Specific Stages of Market Trends
The cryptocurrency market cycle is usually divided into four stages: Accumulation, Bull Run, Distribution, and Bear Market. Here is the judgment of the current stage:
Accumulation Phase (Ended)
After the bear market of 2022-2023, the market entered the accumulation phase in early 2023, with Bitcoin's price gradually recovering from the low (around $16,000), while whales and institutions began to accumulate.
Bull Market Rising Phase (Main Stage of 2024)
In 2024, especially after the halving, Bitcoin led the market into the rising phase, with prices rising from $64,000 (at the halving) to $108,268 (by the end of 2024), an increase of about 68%. This phase was accompanied by ETF inflows, institutional participation, and retail enthusiasm.
Distribution Phase (Currently Possibly Entering)
Current (February 2025) market features (such as price pullbacks, declining futures OI, and differentiated funding rates) resemble the distribution phase, where long-term holders begin to take profits, and the market enters an adjustment after overheating. CryptoQuant mentioned that the short-term trading ratio of Bitcoin reached 36% in the fourth quarter of 2024, which is a precursor to the peak of a bull market.
If Bitcoin continues to decline (for example, breaking below the key support level of $85,000-$90,000), it may confirm that the distribution phase has fully begun.
Bear Market Decline Phase (Not Yet Reached)
Bear markets typically begin after the peak of a bull market, accompanied by significant price declines (historically by 70%-80%). Currently, there is no evidence to suggest that we have entered this phase, but if the adjustment intensifies and sentiment turns extremely pessimistic, it may appear in the latter half of 2025.
Stage Conclusion: The market is currently in the early stage of the distribution phase of the bull market, transitioning from the frenzy of the rising phase to the adjustment and profit-taking phase. There is still some time before entering a bear market, but the performance of altcoins may prematurely reflect characteristics of a local bear market.
Key Observations of Current Market Trends
Bitcoin Dominance Rising: Bitcoin's price is relatively stable (around $95,000-$100,000), while altcoins have significantly corrected, indicating a flow of funds from high-risk assets to Bitcoin, which is a typical phenomenon in the late stage of a bull market.
Adjustment Rather Than Collapse: The current decline (Bitcoin -5.9%) has not yet reached bear market standards (-20% or more), and is more like a normal pullback within a bull market.
Time Estimate: If the peak of the bull market is in the first or second quarter of 2025 (as experts predict), then the current stage is the last sprint or consolidation phase of the bull market, followed by a larger adjustment.
Summary
According to the available data, the cryptocurrency market is still in a bull market, but has entered the late stage of the bull market (early distribution phase). Bitcoin is still expected to rise further in the first half of 2025 (possibly reaching $120,000-$180,000), but the weakness of altcoins and meme coins indicates that market enthusiasm is waning. In the coming months, it is essential to closely monitor whether Bitcoin breaks new highs and how macro factors (such as U.S. policy and Federal Reserve trends) affect the market. If prices continue to fall and break key support, it may signal the end of the bull market and a shift to a bear market.
Recommendations: This phase is suitable for cautious operations, focusing on Bitcoin's movements and avoiding excessive chasing of altcoins. The market may still have upward potential, but risks are also increasing.
Disclaimer: The above analysis does not constitute financial advice, and the cryptocurrency market is highly risky. Please conduct your own research and assess your personal risk tolerance.