老李谈圈

#BTC走势分析 #降息预期
数据差=降息近=比特币起飞！
老李今晚8点15分美国公布6月ADP就业数据 预期新增9.5万人 这数字很关键 要是实际数据比预期更烂 美联储降息概率直接飙升 比特币必然暴涨
大独家解读：

 数据＜9.5万=大利好
说明经济不行了 美联储必须降息救市 资金会疯狂涌向比特币 今晚直冲6万刀
 数据＞9.5万=短期利空
显示就业市场还行 降息可能推迟 BTC可能回调到5.8万 但跌就是抄底机会
 数据符合预期=横盘震荡
主力会等周五非农数据再出手 短线别乱动
BTC今晚走势预测：
数据差：瞬间暴涨300-500刀
数据好：急跌200刀后逐步修复
最佳策略：提前挂单5.85万低多 6.05万高空
暴富提示：
想第一时间抓住这波行情？关注老李 数据公布后即刻在VIP群发布精准操作指令！

Key data from CMC shows that the altcoin season index is only 22, meaning that in the past 90 days, only 22 of the top 100 cryptocurrencies have outperformed Bitcoin.
Market interpretation: Index below 25 = Bitcoin dominance period
It indicates that funds are still concentrated in mainstream cryptocurrencies, while altcoins are performing weakly, and it is not yet time for a full explosion.
However, localized opportunities have emerged. Among the 22 projects that have outperformed BTC, the AI, RWA, and Meme sectors are performing prominently, indicating that smart money is quietly positioning itself.
Historical patterns suggest that a turning point is imminent. In August 2023, this index soared from 18 to 78, followed by a collective surge of over 300% in altcoins. The current low point may be a good opportunity for positioning.

Recently, the English crypto community has been overwhelmingly bearish, with some calling for Bitcoin to drop to 92,000 or even to zero (pure nonsense). Key resistance levels are at 105,000 and 120,000; a breakout is needed to turn bullish. Trump's crypto policy is also highly controversial, with some believing and others criticizing.
Old Li's view: Extreme market sentiment is often a signal for a trend change. For example, before the major drop last March, most people were wildly bullish, resulting in a crash; now, with the collective bearish sentiment, it might instead trigger a rebound.

Key levels are crucial: if it holds at 105,000, the short-term outlook is bullish; if it falls below 90,000, that will be truly dangerous.
The impact of policies is exaggerated; the core of Bitcoin's rise and fall is the flow of funds, not determined by any president's statements.

Brothers, this market is truly a tale of two extremes! I just saw the latest data from Cointelegraph (reposted by Binance News), Bitcoin surged by 31.41% in the second quarter of 2025, but plummeted by 11.82% in the first quarter — this roller coaster ride is giving people chills. Old Li won't waste words today, let's get straight to the hardcore analysis.
Truth about Q1's crash: Institutional wash trading or retail panic selling?

The pullback at the beginning of the year, many people blamed it on the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike expectations, but Old Li believes the root cause is actually leverage liquidation. On-chain data shows that from January to March, the total liquidation amount exceeded $12 billion, especially during that three consecutive bearish trend in mid-February, which directly shattered the bullish faith. However, looking back now, the deep pit in Q1 turned out to be a bottom-fishing opportunity; those who shouted 'Bitcoin will go to zero' are probably regretting it now.

The MC Altcoin Seasonal Index suddenly jumped 3 points to 19, which means that 19 of the top 100 tokens have outperformed Bitcoin. Although it is still far from the violent bull market threshold of 50, funds have begun to quietly turn to altcoins.

Key data hides secrets
History does not lie. When this index breaks through 25, the market will enter a mild copycat season. It will be a full-scale carnival when it exceeds 75. Now 19 means that the main force is still testing, but smart money has already taken action. Last week, several local dogs in the SOL ecosystem doubled in a single week. The BRC20 track suddenly pulled up. It was all foreplay.
Lao Li's exclusive interpretation
There are three things to remember when playing with copycats now
Only watch the weekly volume. Those old coins that have been sideways for half a year suddenly exploded in volume, which is a signal.

The most dangerous moment in a bull market is when you think you're guaranteed to make money—this $136 million in long liquidations is the harshest warning!
Brothers, this market is truly surreal! In 24 hours, the entire network saw liquidations of $176 million, and the bulls actually contributed 77% of the 'performance', $136 million just vanished—this is not a correction; this is the dealer's precise harvesting of the 'greedy'!
Data doesn't lie: The bull market graveyard is now open.
The long-to-short liquidation ratio is 3:1, with long liquidations being more than three times that of shorts, what does that indicate? The more it rises, the crazier people get with their bets, and in the end, they all become cannon fodder.

Storm is coming! Digital gold welcomes a historic opportunity#美国加征关税 #伊朗和叙利亚冲突 #BTC走势分析

Global Situation Changes Drastically, Funds Seek Emergency Shelter
Last night, a major incident occurred in international politics. The U.S. issued the strongest sanctions threat against Iran, even hinting at the possibility of military action. This 'political nuclear bomb' instantly ignited the situation in the Middle East, shaking the global capital markets. As traditional safe-haven asset gold surged, an even more astonishing phenomenon is occurring—Bitcoin is becoming the 'digital gold' of the new era.
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