Brothers, I am Old Li! Tonight, the global market's 'big thunder' - the US CPI data is about to explode! Institutional forecasts are all here, Old Li highlights the key points for you, see the wind direction and adjust your positions!
Core focus one: Annual rate (year-on-year) forecast - Cooling meets resistance?
Stubborn faction (2.7%): Barclays, HSBC, Nomura, Canadian Imperial Bank, Jefferies, Scotiabank, Wells Fargo (7 institutions)
Mainstream faction (2.8%): ANZ, Danske Bank, Deutsche Bank, Bank of America, Capital Economics, Lloyds, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Standard Chartered, TD Securities, UBS, Yuchun (14 institutions! Over 60%!)
Heating faction (2.9%): Deca, ING, Société Générale (3 institutions)
Old Li highlights:
Consensus clearly points to 2.8%! It's a decrease from the previous value of 3.2%, but it’s stuck just below 3%, struggling and still far from the Federal Reserve's 2% target! Want a rate cut in June? It’s uncertain! The market fears this kind of sticky inflation that 'won't go down.'
Core focus two: Monthly rate (month-on-month, seasonally adjusted) forecast - Pressure remains
Moderate faction (+0.2%): Rabobank, ANZ, Bank of America, Barclays, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank, HSBC, Danske Bank, Moody's, Morningstar, Nomura, Deutsche Bank, Oxford, Pantheon, Canadian Imperial Bank, Jefferies, Scotiabank, Standard Chartered, UBS, Lloyds, Yuchun, Wells Fargo, Westpac (23 institutions! Absolute majority!)
Pressure faction (+0.3%): Deutsche Bank, Capital Economics, TD Securities, Goldman Sachs, ING, JPMorgan, Mizuho, Société Générale, Morgan Stanley (9 institutions)
Old Li highlights
0.2% is the mainstream expectation. But don’t forget, the previous value was 0.4%, and dropping to 0.2% is considered 'moderately' favorable. The key is to watch core CPI (excluding food and energy), that is the Federal Reserve's sore spot! If the core is also stubborn, the market will tremble.
What does this mean for the cryptocurrency market?
Annual rate ≥2.8% + Core stubbornness = Big negative! Rate cut expectations hit hard again, the dollar remains strong, and risk assets (including Bitcoin and Ethereum) are under pressure, with short-term pullback risks greatly increased.
Annual rate 2.7% + Core moderate = Small favorable? It may give the market a breather, but don't expect a big rebound, the Federal Reserve won't soften up that quickly.
Monthly rate exceeds expectations (≥0.3%) = Adding insult to injury! Panic spreads, be careful of a waterfall effect.
Monthly rate meets or falls below expectations (≤0.2%) = Neutral to warm. The key is that core data must not cause disruptions.
Old Li's strategy suggestions:
Data before: Keep your hands steady! Don't bet on direction with large positions, set early warnings at key positions (BTC support/resistance). Use leverage cautiously, be careful of needle spikes!
After the data:
If the overall data is hawkish (stubborn inflation): Beware of declines! Consider light short positions at high levels (strict stop-loss), or temporarily observe. Don’t rush to bottom-fish in the spot market.
If the overall data is dovish (meets or slightly better than expectations): Observe the strength and sustainability of the rebound, especially whether Bitcoin can stabilize at key levels. Don't chase highs, wait for a pullback to confirm.
Core CPI is the ace! It is more important than overall data, keep a close eye on it!
Long-term: The downward trend of inflation has not changed, but the process is bumpy. Pullbacks are opportunities, but bottom-fishing should be done in batches, using spare money, and hold on! Risk control is always the top priority!
Summary: Tonight's CPI, institutions bet on stubborn inflation (annual rate 2.8%, monthly rate 0.2%)! Rate cut expectations are under test. For the cryptocurrency market, beware of short-term downward risks, observe more and act less before the data is released, and ensure risk control! Is it fortune or disaster? The data will speak, and Old Li will accompany you in monitoring the market!
Follow Old Li for real-time data impact analysis, share response strategies, or if you need more guidance, feel free to reach out to me, I will provide you with detailed analysis!
