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How Trump's Strategy Will Affect Markets and Cryptocurrency • Potential $2-5 Trillion Market Injection — If Trump's policies weaken the dollar and increase liquidity, the resulting capital inflow could drive asset prices significantly higher, with Bitcoin potentially skyrocketing 2 to 10 times from the market bottom. • Legislative Issues — Investors are closely watching new regulatory frameworks that could incentivize mainstream companies and institutions to adopt cryptocurrency, further legitimizing the market. • The Perfect Storm for a Bull Market? — The combined effects of a weakening dollar, rising inflation, and excess liquidity could serve as a catalyst for the next cryptocurrency bull market cycle.

Trump's Economic Strategy: A High-Risk Gamble? Donald Trump's approach focuses on weakening the dollar, increasing inflation rates, and enhancing liquidity—all of which could have significant impacts on markets, trade, and cryptocurrencies.
1️⃣ Weakening the Dollar • Trump proposed new tariffs: a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico, and a 10% tariff on China • A weaker dollar makes exports cheaper, potentially fostering the growth of American manufacturing. • He also advocates for the establishment of a 'strategic crypto reserve' using Bitcoin and altcoins to hedge against currency devaluation. • Reports from Bloomberg and X indicate that he views a weak dollar as a competitive advantage.
2️⃣ Increasing Inflation • Tariffs will increase import costs, thereby driving up consumer prices—economists predict inflation rates will rise by 2-3%. • Tax cuts and deregulation could stimulate more spending, further pushing inflation higher. • Cryptocurrencies are often marketed as inflation hedges, but their volatility makes them a high-risk bet.
3️⃣ Enhancing Liquidity • Trump wants the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates (currently at 4.25-4.5%) and refinance the $7 trillion of maturing U.S. debt by 2025. • His crypto-friendly policies (such as easing SEC regulations) could attract institutional investors to the market. • Market reaction? After he hinted at establishing a national crypto reserve, Bitcoin surged to $94,000, indicating that the market is very sensitive to his policies. The big question: Will this strategy work? Trump's approach relies on weakening the dollar and boosting cryptocurrencies to offset inflation risks. However, if inflation spirals out of control or investor confidence wavers, this strategy could backfire. Bold moves or dangerous bets?

10. Why Bond Yields Fall During Economic Slowdowns When the market anticipates a recession or slowdown, bond yields typically decline. The reasons are as follows: • Investors seek safety — During uncertain times, investors shift from riskier assets (stocks, cryptocurrencies) to safe-haven assets like U.S. Treasury bonds, increasing demand and driving up bond prices. • Price-yield relationship — Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions. For example, if a $1,000 bond with a yield of 4% rises in price to $1,333, its yield will fall to 3%. • Economic warning signals — Weak GDP growth, rising unemployment, or trade tensions (such as tariffs) indicate an economic slowdown, prompting more investors to buy bonds. • Fed expectations — If a recession seems likely, traders expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, making existing high-yield bonds more attractive and further lowering the yields on new bonds.
📉 Real-world example: In March 2020, during the COVID-19 crisis, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond plummeted from 1.9% to 0.5% as investors flocked to the bond market.

The United States will face $7 trillion in debt maturities in 2025—what will happen next? By 2025, the U.S. Treasury must refinance $7 trillion in maturing debt—rising bond yields make this challenge even more severe. In March, the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.3%, increasing borrowing costs. How will the government manage this debt? 1/ Issue new bonds ('debt roll-over')—the Treasury can replace maturing debt with new borrowing. 2/ Adjust maturity terms—the 2-year bond yield is 4.1%, and the 10-year bond yield is 4.3%, the government may extend the debt term to lock in stable rates. 3/ Absorb higher costs—the government may have to accept higher interest payments. 4/ Rely on market demand—U.S. bonds will be auctioned off to banks, investment funds, and foreign governments for financing. 5/ Policy coordination—if the market is weak, the Trump team may urge the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, potentially lowering borrowing costs over eight quarters. If a recession occurs due to tariffs, layoffs, or broader economic slowdown, the Federal Reserve may step in to stimulate the economy. However, the U.S. Treasury may continue to issue long-term bonds at higher costs, betting on strong investor demand.

If the U.S. economy begins to contract, the Federal Reserve may intervene with policies to stimulate growth and prevent defaults. Potential measures include: • Lowering interest rates - The Federal Reserve may reduce the federal funds rate (currently 4.25-4.5%) to 0%, lowering borrowing costs and encouraging consumption. • Quantitative easing (QE) - By purchasing bonds, the Federal Reserve injects liquidity into the market, ensuring that businesses and consumers can access credit. • Forward guidance - The Federal Reserve may signal long-term low interest rates to reassure investors and stabilize financial markets. • Emergency loans - If the credit system fails, the Federal Reserve may provide direct loans to banks or businesses to prevent a liquidity crisis. The specific methods will depend on the severity of the recession and whether inflation (currently at 2.5%) allows for aggressive intervention. If inflation remains high, the Federal Reserve may have to balance between stimulus measures and price stability.

The market crash of 2020-2021 was one of the most severe economic shocks in modern history, triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic and the sudden halt of global economic activity. This led to a serious economic recession that forced the Federal Reserve to take stimulus measures. To stabilize the market, the Federal Reserve injected $4 trillion into the economy through interest rate cuts, bond purchases, and direct stimulus payments. What was the result? As investors sought alternative assets amid concerns over inflation and currency devaluation, Bitcoin (BTC) soared 24 times.

The U.S. economy is heavily reliant on credit, which means that when borrowing costs become expensive, spending slows down, businesses struggle, and economic growth weakens. If a recession leads to widespread defaults, the Federal Reserve may take aggressive measures, including: • Lowering interest rates to near zero – to encourage borrowing and investment. • Implementing quantitative easing (QE) – buying bonds to inject liquidity into the market and stabilize financial conditions. In this case, government agencies and financial institutions (some of which have been criticized in the past) may play a key role in managing the crisis.

The Four Pillars of the U.S. Economy The U.S. economy is driven by four key factors: 1/ Consumer Spending (about 70% of GDP): This is the largest factor, driven by the purchase of goods and services, often funded through credit or loans. When consumer spending increases, businesses grow, and the economy expands. 2/ Business Investment (15-20% of GDP): Companies invest in new technologies, equipment, and expansion, thereby promoting productivity and creating jobs. 3/ Government Spending (15-20% of GDP): Infrastructure, defense, and social programs provide stability and economic stimulus, especially during economic downturns. 4/ Net Exports (smaller, typically negative): The U.S. usually imports more than it exports, resulting in a trade deficit that affects the overall economic balance. The Role of Credit in Economic Growth Since consumer spending and business investment heavily rely on credit, access to low-interest borrowing is crucial for economic expansion. When borrowing costs rise due to increasing interest rates, spending slows down, which can lead to economic contraction or recession. This makes the Federal Reserve's policies, particularly interest rate decisions, a key factor in influencing the economic cycle.

As concerns over economic recession intensify, investor anxiety grows 📉
Economic uncertainty often drives investors away from risk assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies, shifting towards safer investments such as bonds or cash. Currently, the market is reacting to the following key recession indicators: • Rising unemployment rate - a sign of slowing economic activity. • Inverted yield curve - historically a warning signal of economic recession. Trump's aggressive trade policies have also increased pressure, including: • Escalating tariffs that may strain global supply chains. • Trade war tensions increasing costs for businesses and consumers. • Concerns over government shutdowns exacerbating market uncertainty. Under the influence of these factors, investor sentiment is weakening - could this be the beginning of a deep correction?

The US stock market has lost 1.75 trillion dollars! Cryptocurrency is also falling, and many analysts warn that cryptocurrencies will decline further. Some believe we are entering a bearish phase, concerned that Trump's policies (such as tariffs and deregulation) could trigger an economic recession similar to that of 2021. Is history repeating itself, or is this just short-term panic?

To understand Trump, one must look beyond his business background—his influence extends far beyond his presidential term. His leadership reflects a greater shift in America's global role in the post-Cold War era. To predict his next moves, attention must be paid to how the U.S. adapts to the global power shift, rather than just analyzing his past business strategies. History shows that great presidents prioritize diplomacy over military power. Will Trump take this path, or will he adopt a different approach?

Everyone is buying $BTC — but the price keeps falling. Why? Trump's conspiracy group has a secret strategy! This is how they mislead you and manipulate the cryptocurrency market👇

This is just a theory, but I believe Trump knows what he is doing. This situation is consistent with the intelligence gathered, and most importantly, it is favorable to cryptocurrency.

Short-term and long-term risks. In the short term, the economic situation is good, with new job opportunities, strong growth, and a positive atmosphere. In the long term, we will not see any negative news by then, Trump has already locked in the public's view of him as the person who will fix the economy. I believe Trump knows what he is doing. Inflation has been on the rise.

Trump's overall plan is as follows: Once the Federal Reserve yields and lowers interest rates, the real game begins: ➤ Refinancing US debt at low interest rates = Bubble continues to expand ➤ Cheap money floods into stocks = Numbers rise ➤ Expect a significant influx of liquidity (not just driven by ETFs, but also broader adoption and reserves playing a role) This script is not new.

What is Trump’s solution? First let everything collapse. ➤ Tariffs on major markets → strangle imports and exports → destroy GDP growth (core indicator of a strong economy). ➤ DOGE Task Force (not a meme, haha) → cuts to government contracts (most of which are fake anyway) and mass layoffs of government workers → depressed job market = Fed forced to cut rates. Trump has done this before