夜雨星辰ljh

How to borrow BNB on tge?

#BinanceTurns8 x账号下载的时候翻墙下哪个软件呀

Is there an older brother who can teach me how to download x on an Android phone? I have always not known how to link the x account, unable to register #币安钱包TGE .

#BinanceTurns8 participated in the event

#BinanceTurns8 joined the event

#套利交易策略 has tried cross-platform arbitrage in cryptocurrency and inter-month arbitrage in commodity futures. The opportunity identification and execution logic of these two models are quite different, and the pitfalls I have experienced have given me a more practical understanding of 'low risk'—the risk of arbitrage does not lie in volatility, but rather in 'seemingly risk-free detailed loopholes'.

1. Cross-platform arbitrage in cryptocurrency: 'Price difference capture' racing against time

In the early days, I engaged in cross-platform arbitrage with Bitcoin and Ethereum. For instance, if the BTC price on OKX was $200 higher than on Binance at the same time, I would think about buying on Binance and selling on OKX to profit from the difference.

- Identifying opportunities: I wrote a simple web scraper in Python to capture the order book prices of five major exchanges in real-time and set an alert for when 'the price difference exceeds 0.5%'. However, I later found that the price differences that can actually be arbitraged often only exist for 10-30 seconds, and one must account for transfer fees and withdrawal time costs (for example, transferring from platform A to platform B requires blockchain confirmation, during which the price difference may have already disappeared).

- Tool dependence: Later, I switched to direct connections via the exchange's API, reducing scraper latency, and focused only on 'spot + spot' instant arbitrage (not involving withdrawals, such as finding price differences between trading pairs on the same platform), but such opportunities are becoming increasingly rare because there are too many quantitative bots that will fill the price difference within seconds.

Key lesson: The core of cross-platform arbitrage is not 'finding price differences', but 'calculating friction costs'—fees, slippage, transfer time, and even the platform's KYC restrictions can turn 'seemingly profitable opportunities' into losses.

2. Inter-month arbitrage in commodity futures: Betting on the return of 'time difference'

I have engaged in inter-month arbitrage with rebar and coke, for example, buying long-month contracts and selling near-month contracts, betting that the price difference will converge from the current 100 yuan to the historical average of 50 yuan.

- Identifying opportunities: I used Excel to analyze the distribution of inter-month price differences over the past three years, and when the current price difference exceeds the mean by two standard deviations, I consider there to be arbitrage space. For instance, under normal circumstances, the long-month price is 50 yuan higher than the near-month price, but if it suddenly rises to 150 yuan, I can enter the market and wait for the return.

The pitfalls encountered during the #交易策略误区 transactions are actually the "tuition fees" for cognitive upgrades. The three strategic mistakes that left the deepest impression on me still remind me to be cautious today:

1. Treating "beautiful backtesting" as "practically feasible"

When I first started writing strategies, I backtested a model of "moving average crossover + increased trading volume," which showed an annualized return of 40% over the past 5 years, along with a high Sharpe ratio. At that time, I thought I had struck gold and directly went heavy into live trading. The result was a continuous loss over 3 months, not only failing to make money but also losing 15% due to frequent stop losses.

Later, upon review, I discovered that during backtesting, I intentionally avoided extreme volatility periods like March 2020 and June 2022, and did not account for transaction fees and slippage—these "beautified" backtesting results did not reflect the real market's "friction costs" and "black swan probabilities."

Lesson: Backtesting must be a bit "dirty"—it should include all extreme market conditions, account for real transaction fees, and even intentionally add a random slippage of 1%-2%. A strategy that can truly be implemented must still hold up under "imperfect data."

2. Using a "single strategy" to cope with the "entire market cycle"

In 2021, I made a good profit with a trend-following strategy and thought that "trend is king," stubbornly sticking to this strategy regardless of whether the market was oscillating or trending. As a result, in the first half of 2022, the market entered a sideways phase, and the strategy triggered stop losses for 6 consecutive weeks, causing the account to drop nearly 30%, yet I was still unwilling to stop, always thinking "the trend is about to come."

It wasn't until I saw a saying: "A trend strategy in a sideways market is like insisting on driving a convertible on a rainy day—it's not that the car is bad, but that the scenario is wrong," that I realized no strategy can work in all market conditions.

Lesson: Define "territory" for the strategy—clarify what kind of market conditions it is suitable for (for example, using trend strategies only when volatility is above 20%) and pair it with a "counter-strategy" for hedging (such as switching to a range breakout model in a sideways market). Accepting that "strategies have rest periods" is more important than stubbornly holding on.

#我的策略演变 My trading strategy has evolved through three stages, each transition directly related to the pitfalls and losses experienced, and looking back, it’s all about upgrades in mindset and understanding:

First Stage: Obsessed with the 'Holy Grail', chasing signals

When I first started, I always thought 'good strategy = high win rate,' and I was crazily in love with various combinations of indicators (like MACD + RSI golden crosses and death crosses, Bollinger Band breakouts). I would stare at the market every day looking for signals, trading frequently. When I made profits, I thought my strategy was great; when I lost, I would change indicators. The result was that I paid a lot in fees, my account experienced rollercoaster fluctuations, and I was always frustrated about 'missing signals,' which made my mindset particularly anxious.

Key Transformation: Realizing that 'win rate ≠ profit,' the real determinant of profit and loss is the 'profit-loss ratio.' For example, in 10 trades, if I made a profit 4 times and lost 6 times, but earned 3 units each time I won and lost 1 unit each time I lost, in the long run, I could actually make money. This led me to shift from 'looking for sure-win signals' to 'accepting losses and amplifying profits.'

Second Stage: Focusing on 'rules,' cutting off emotions

Understanding the importance of the profit-loss ratio, I began to establish strict trading rules: for instance, only trading two familiar instruments, entry must meet both 'trend + volume' conditions, setting stop-loss outside the recent high and low points, and taking profits in two batches (one portion to break even, the other based on the trend). However, during execution, I couldn’t help but 'manually intervene'—for example, if the stop-loss was approaching, I would increase my position, thinking 'this time it will definitely rebound,' resulting in small losses turning into huge losses.

Key Transformation: Treating 'rules' as a 'lifeline,' using mechanical execution to combat human weaknesses. Later, I even trained on a demo account for a month 'to only place orders according to the rules, not looking at account profit and loss,' and gradually discovered: when you don’t get caught up in the profit and loss of each individual trade and focus on 'doing the right thing,' the long-term results tend to be more stable. My mindset also shifted from 'afraid of losses' to 'afraid of violating rules.'

Third Stage: Adapting to 'changes,' leaving room for error

The market always has black swan events (such as sudden policies or liquidity decreases), and even the most perfect rules can fail. Once, following a trend strategy to go long, I encountered extreme conditions with a gap down, which directly breached the stop-loss line, causing me to lose the profits from the previous three trades. This made me realize that 'strategy is not fixed; one must leave room for error in the market.'

#迷因币情绪 The market's enthusiasm for meme coins is essentially a concentrated reflection of the "emotion-driven" and "speculative attributes" in the field of cryptocurrency. There are several key logics behind it:

- Low threshold for participation: Meme coins often do not have complex technical barriers or application scenarios. They rely more on community consensus and meme culture (such as the "Shiba Inu" of Dogecoin and the frog image of PEPE) to narrow the distance, making ordinary investors feel that "you can participate by just tiptoeing". This sense of ease lowers the psychological threshold for entry.

- Imagination space for short-term wealth: Historically, some meme coins (such as Dogecoin and SHIB) have experienced amazing growth. This "wealth-making myth" will be spread repeatedly, attracting funds with a "take a chance" mentality to enter the market. Even if they know that the risk is high, they are willing to pay for a small probability of high returns.

- Boosting the market cycle: In the stage when cryptocurrencies are generally hot, funds tend to flow to assets with high elasticity. Meme coins, as "emotional amplifiers", are easily pushed up by funds, forming a short-term cycle of "the more they rise, the more they buy".

However, the other side of this enthusiasm is high risk - lack of actual value support, huge price fluctuations, may soar in the short term, or quickly return to zero. Investors' enthusiasm is more about chasing "short-term speculative opportunities" rather than recognizing its long-term value, which also makes meme coins always accompanied by the controversy of "bubble theory".

#BinanceTurns8 event participation

#BinanceTurns8 participates in the event

Hope to successfully enroll in Soochow University for the postgraduate examination this year

#BinanceTurns8 participates in the event

#BinanceTurns8
According to reports, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is developing a new framework to streamline the approval process for cryptocurrency ETFs. Currently, exchanges are required to submit Form 19b-4, with a review period of up to 240 days. If the new framework is approved, exchanges will be able to more efficiently list eligible products, similar to traditional ETFs.
💬 Will this drive large-scale institutional entry, bringing deeper market liquidity? Or will it introduce new risks in a rapidly changing market?

Let's participate in the event together.

Happy 8th Anniversary

My Unbreakable Bond with Binance: Growth, Harvest, and Emotion

In the waves of the cryptocurrency world, my story with Binance is like a tumultuous and surprising saga of struggle, with each segment carrying the footprints of growth and unforgettable emotions.

When I first stepped into the cryptocurrency space, I was filled with curiosity and longing for digital assets, and among many trading platforms, I chose Binance. It was in 2018, and Binance had already emerged in the industry with its efficient trading experience, a rich selection of cryptocurrencies, and outstanding security protection. At that time, I was just a novice with a superficial understanding of investments, often feeling lost in the complex candlestick charts and trading terminology. Binance's beginner tutorials and community forums became my enlightening classroom, where I eagerly learned, from the basic trading rules to advanced investment strategies, with each exploration bringing me one step closer to my dream of wealth.

As I delved deeper into Binance, I began to attempt participating in some trades. I remember the excitement and sense of accomplishment when I successfully captured a small wave for the first time and made a modest profit; that feeling is still unforgettable. At that moment, I felt the power that Binance bestowed upon me, giving an ordinary investor the opportunity to harvest wealth in this emerging field. After that, my trading on Binance gradually became more frequent, and I experienced significant market fluctuations, facing the frustration of losses, but more importantly, the process of summarizing experiences from failures and continuously growing.

What Binance has given me is not just investment gains, but also a group of like-minded friends I met in the community. We exchange investment insights and share market dynamics in Binance's community, encouraging each other and facing challenges together during market fluctuations. I remember one time during a market crash, everyone in the group expressed their worries and confusions. A seasoned cryptocurrency friend stood up, patiently analyzed the market trends, and shared his coping strategies, gradually calming my anxious heart. In this uncertain market, the warmth and support from strangers felt particularly precious, solidifying my determination to continue moving forward in the cryptocurrency space.

$BNB Time period: From large to small, anchoring the main trend

- Large cycle determines direction: Prioritize looking at weekly and daily charts to determine the main trend (for example, if the weekly closing price continues to hit new highs without breaking previous lows, it indicates an upward trend; conversely, it indicates a downward trend).
Example: Bitcoin has had three consecutive months of weekly gains, and each pullback does not drop below the 50% level of the previous rise, which can be determined as a main upward trend.

- Small cycle finds opportunities: Under the framework of the main trend, look at 4-hour and 1-hour charts to find entry points that align with the main trend (for example, when the main trend is rising, only act on small cycle pullback completion signals).

2. Price structure: Define trends using "highs and lows"

- Upward trend: Prices continuously create higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL), meaning each round of rises exceeds the previous high, and the pullback low is higher than the previous low.

- Downward trend: Prices continuously create lower lows (LL) and lower highs (LH), meaning each round of declines has a low that is lower than the previous low, and the rebound high is lower than the previous high.

- Sideways trend: Highs and lows alternate but do not break through the range; at this time, there is no clear trend, and one must wait for a direction to be chosen.

#趋势交易策略 Time Period: From Large to Small, Anchoring Main Trend

- Large Cycle Determines Direction: Prioritize looking at weekly and daily charts to determine the main trend (e.g., if the weekly closing price continuously hits new highs and does not break the previous low, it indicates an upward trend; conversely, it indicates a downward trend).
Example: Bitcoin's weekly chart has generated three consecutive months of gains, and each pullback does not drop below the 50% position of the previous increase, which can be determined as a main upward trend.

- Small Cycle Finding Opportunities: Under the main trend framework, look at 4-hour and 1-hour charts to find entry points that align with the main trend (e.g., when the main trend is rising, only act on signals that indicate the end of pullbacks in the small cycle).

2. Price Structure: Define Trends Using 'Highs and Lows'

- Upward Trend: Prices continuously create higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL), meaning each round of increases has highs exceeding previous highs, and the pullback lows are higher than previous lows.

- Downward Trend: Prices continuously create lower lows (LL) and lower highs (LH), meaning each round of decreases has lows lower than previous lows, and the rebound highs are lower than previous highs.

- Sideways Trend: Highs and lows alternate but do not break the range, indicating no clear trend at this time, and direction selection needs to be awaited.

#突破交易策略 1. How to Identify and Confirm an Effective Breakthrough?

The validity of a breakthrough needs to be verified by combining the three core elements of price, trading volume, and time to avoid being misled by a single price breakthrough:

- Price Dimension:
After breaking through key levels (resistance/support), it is essential to observe whether it forms a 'valid hold'—for example, after a daily level breakthrough, the closing price remains above (resistance level breakthrough) or below (support level breakthrough) the breakthrough level for 2-3 consecutive days, rather than just a brief intraday spike.
Example: A certain cryptocurrency has been long hindered at $30,000. If one day it rises to $30,500 during the day but closes back at $29,800, it does not count as an effective breakthrough; if the closing price remains above $30,200 for three consecutive days, it is more likely to be an effective breakthrough.

- Trading Volume Dimension:
An effective breakthrough is often accompanied by a significant increase in trading volume (usually more than 1.5 times the average trading volume of the last 20 days), indicating strong consensus among funds and sufficient momentum. Conversely, a breakthrough with low trading volume may be 'water without a source,' making it prone to a pullback.
Logic: The cryptocurrency market has high retail participation; if there is no institutional or large capital entering during the breakthrough (reflected in trading volume), it is difficult to maintain the trend.