苏哲分析

After reaching a new high, Bitcoin has become the sixth largest asset in the world (Updated July 11, 2025)
1. Latest Market Performance
Price reaches a new high: Bitcoin (BTC) broke through $117,000 on July 10, then slightly retreated to $116,000, with a 24-hour increase of 4.54%.
Market capitalization ranking: Bitcoin's total market capitalization surpasses Google (Alphabet), becoming the sixth largest asset globally, behind only gold, Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon.
2. Core Drivers of Bitcoin's Rise
Institutional inflow: BlackRock’s Bitcoin Spot ETF (IBIT) raised $9 billion in 2025, making it one of the top five ETFs in the U.S. for fund inflows.
Policy benefits: The Trump administration has suspended tariffs for 90 days, boosting market risk appetite.
Scarcity support: The total supply of Bitcoin is only 21 million coins, with institutional investors continuously increasing their holdings.
3. Future Outlook
If Bitcoin rises to $158,000, its market capitalization will surpass Apple ($3.15 trillion), entering the top four globally.
Market predictions suggest a target price range of $110,000 to $200,000 by the end of 2025.
4. Risk Warning
Short-term volatility: Bitcoin futures open interest has reached a new high, potentially exacerbating market fluctuations.
Policy uncertainty: The Federal Reserve's interest rate policy and new tariffs in the U.S. (effective August) may impact market sentiment.
Conclusion: The rise of Bitcoin marks the formal entry of cryptocurrencies into the global mainstream asset category. Whether it can challenge the market capitalization positions of Apple and Microsoft in the future depends on the continued inflow of institutional funds and changes in market risk appetite.#BTC再创新高

1-hour period K-line display shows that BTC experienced panic selling near 114,200, with trading volume surging by 133%. However, the price has dropped, indicating concentrated short-term selling pressure being released. Member indicators show that the KDJ death cross combined with the MACD histogram contraction confirms the strengthening of downward momentum, but the initial signs of a bottom formation suggest that a local bottom may be forming. The current price is below the EMA24 and EMA52 moving averages but close to the key support level of 114,000. If it can stabilize, a rebound may occur. The chip distribution indicates that 118,100 is a strong resistance zone above, with significant pressure. In the short term, attention should be paid to the validity of the support at 114,000.

Currently, the prices of Auntie and Big Cake have reached the first resistance level. The future trend will depend on whether an effective breakthrough can be formed at the resistance level and whether it can hold steady. #BTC##Bitcoin##Ethereum##ETH#

On August 3rd, this week, the U.S. added only 73,000 non-farm jobs in July, far below expectations, and the data for May and June was significantly revised down. Additionally, Federal Reserve Governor Quarles will resign next week, allowing Trump to appoint a favored candidate in advance.
Perhaps influenced by the above news, the CME 'FedWatch' saw the probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September soar to 80.3%. Before the non-farm data, this figure was only 41.3%.

Since the end of July, Bitcoin has retreated from around $118,000, primarily influenced by recession concerns triggered by U.S. economic data (such as employment reports), expectations of Mt. Gox creditor sell-offs, and technical pullback pressure. Analysis on July 31 showed that Bitcoin was stuck in a tug-of-war around $116,000, and after breaking below $115,000, it further declined, reaching a high of around $113,300 and a low of $111,850 today, continuing the bearish dominant trend.

From a technical perspective: the Bollinger Bands on the four-hour cycle have widened, the price has broken below the middle band and is continuing to decline, with short-term moving averages (EMA, RSI) showing a bearish arrangement, and the KDJ indicator has entered the oversold zone (below 20), indicating that weakness remains. The first resistance level above is at $115,000, with strong resistance at $116,000. Short-term support levels are between $111,500 and $112,000, with key support at $110,800.

Long position operation range suggestion: If the price quickly dips and stabilizes around $111,500, a small long position can be attempted, with a stop-loss at $110,800 and a target of $112,500 to $113,000.
Short position operation range suggestion: If there is a rebound to the $114,000 to $114,500 range, short positions can be taken under pressure, with a stop-loss at $115,000 and a target of $112,500 to $113,000.

On August 3, Ethereum's price fluctuated between $3340 and $3450, with a daily low of $3350. The rebound is weak, and the technical outlook remains in a downtrend channel.

From a technical perspective: the price in the four-hour cycle is at the lower Bollinger Band, MACD bearish momentum is strengthening, RSI is below 40, and there is insufficient rebound momentum in the short term. The first resistance level above is at $3450-3480, with strong resistance at $3525. Short-term support is at $3320-3350, with key support at $3240. If it breaks below, it may drop to $3100.

Short position operation range suggestion: Short when rebounding to the $3440-3460 range, with a stop loss at $3500 and a target of $3,380-3350.
Long position operation range suggestion: If the price quickly drops and stabilizes around $3320, a light long position can be tried, with a stop loss at $3280 and a target of $3400-3450.

Market risks and key points: New tariffs effective on August 3 may trigger global market fluctuations, so attention should be paid to the safe-haven correlation between Bitcoin and gold. The July PCE price index will be announced on August 23; if inflation exceeds expectations, it may strengthen a hawkish stance, negatively impacting the crypto market.

Current operational advice is to focus on short positions, avoid blindly bottom-fishing, and strictly adhere to stop-loss discipline. Monitor macroeconomic data and on-chain whale movements, and adjust strategies flexibly.

According to Yitai's past data, 4000 is its threshold and turning point.
On March 12, 2024, it first broke through 4000, and on April 13, 2024, it dropped to 2911.
On May 27, 2024, it rose to 3980, and on August 15, 2024, it fell to 2112.
On December 16, 2024, it reached 4109, and on April 9, 2025, it dropped to 1384.
On July 28, 2025, it returned to 3940, marking Yitai's fourth time reaching the 4000 threshold. Now, there has been a cliff-like drop again, and it is really recommended that everyone learn from these experiences. This time, it is still unknown how far it will drop, but the downward trend and signals are already too obvious. It is advised that everyone treat this situation with caution!

On August 2nd, the current price of Ethereum is approximately $3475, with a 24-hour decline of 1.12% and an intraday low of 3428. The market sentiment fear index has dropped to 65, with 90% of long positions liquidated.
From a technical indicator perspective, the 4-hour level has seen consecutive large bearish candles breaking below the EMA7/EMA30 moving averages, with short-term support at 3430 (July low). If this level is lost, it may accelerate the decline to 3370.
The first resistance level above is at 3560 (rebound pressure), the second resistance level is at 3600 (bearish defense level), and the third resistance level is at 3700 (previous high pressure).
The first support level below is at 3430 (EMA30 moving average), the second support level is at 3370 (Fibonacci support), and the third support level is at 3200 (psychological barrier).

Short position operation range suggestion: Short at resistance in the 3560-3600 range, stop loss at 3630, target 3430→3370.
Long position operation range suggestion: If it quickly dips and stabilizes around 3430, try a small long position, stop loss at 3400, target 3500.

Risk warning and key points:
Macroeconomic events: Focus on the U.S. July PCE Price Index at 20:30. If inflation exceeds expectations, it may reinforce the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, negatively impacting the cryptocurrency market.
Technical signals: If ETH breaks below 3430, observe the validity of the 3370 support.
Capital management: Single trade position should not exceed 15%, total position should not exceed 30%, and stop losses should be strictly set.

Current market sentiment is bearish, with bears dominating the technical aspect, but caution is needed for short-term rebounds after being oversold. It is recommended to focus on short positions, trying small shorts at key resistance levels and avoiding blind bottom fishing before support levels stabilize.

On August 2nd, due to the unexpected rise in U.S. core PCE inflation data, expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut cooled, leading to a significant drop in Bitcoin, which is currently reported at approximately 113,500, with a 24-hour decline of about 2%, and a daily low of 112,722.

From a technical indicator perspective, the daily chart has broken below the key support level of 115,000, entering a bearish trend in the short term. If it cannot effectively stabilize above 112,850, it may further test 110,000. It has fallen below the 200 EMA (114,855) and the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, with a MACD death cross indicating a continuous strengthening of bearish momentum.
The first support level below is at 112,850, the second support is at 110,000, and the third strong support is at 107,000.
The first resistance level above is at 115,000, the second resistance is at 116,000, and the third resistance is at 118,000.

Short position operation range suggestion: Short on a rebound to the 115,000-115,600 range with a stop loss at 116,500 and a target of 113,000→111,500. If it rebounds near 116,000, you can add to your position, moving the stop loss up.
Long position operation range suggestion: If it quickly tests near 112,850 and stabilizes, try a small long position with a stop loss at 112,000 and a target of 114,000.

Risk warnings and key nodes:
Macroeconomic events: Focus on the U.S. July PCE price index at 20:30. If inflation exceeds expectations, it may reinforce the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, negatively impacting the crypto market.
Technical signals: If BTC falls below 112,850, it may trigger stop-loss selling pressure, necessitating caution against accelerated declines.
Capital management: Single trade positions should not exceed 15% of total capital, and total positions should not exceed 30%, with strict stop-loss settings.

Current market sentiment is bearish, with shorts dominating the technical landscape, but caution should be taken for short-term rebounds after overselling. It is recommended to focus on high shorts, trying small shorts on rebounds to key resistance levels, and avoid blindly bottom-fishing until support levels stabilize.

If we don't eat at this time, when will we eat? Are we going to wait until the daylilies are cold?

In the early morning of August 1, Bitcoin rebounded to the $116,000 range after a spike near $114,300. Previous analysis on July 29 indicated a long lower shadow at $117,500, showing clear signs of support from the main players, but the KDJ indicator is about to form a death cross around 50, indicating divergence risk. The daily level shows that Bitcoin is at the end of a wedge convergence, with the probability of breaking through $119,000 dropping to 25%.
Last night, Coinbase saw a net outflow of 800 BTC from institutions, and on-chain data shows increased short-term selling pressure. Additionally, $2.99 billion in tokens will be unlocked in August, with large unlocks of Solana (SOL) and Worldcoin (WLD) potentially affecting market liquidity. On July 31, the Fear and Greed Index was at 72 (Greed), but large whale funds showed a net outflow, reflecting that some major holders are taking profits or avoiding risks.
Short-term resistance levels: $117,500-$118,500. If the price rebounds to around $118,500 and fails to break through effectively, a light short position may be considered, with a stop loss reference at $119,500 and a target down to $115,000.
Key support levels: $114,300 (the low on the early morning of August 1) and $112,000 (support from the rising trend line since June). If the price dips to around $114,300 and stabilizes, a short-term long position may be attempted, with a stop loss reference at $113,500 and a target up to $116,500.

On August 1, Ethereum rebounded to above $3,700 after reaching $3,615, but still failed to break through the support level of $3,750-$3,760 from July 29. Previous technical analysis indicated that Ethereum completed the TD9 sequence decline signal, and the MACD fast and slow lines formed a dead cross, but bearish momentum has not fully dominated.
The rise on July 28 was confirmed as a continuation of the third wave, rather than the start of the fifth wave. Currently, we need to wait for the fourth wave to pull back to $3,520-$3,560 before positioning long, with a target pointing to the fifth wave peak of $4,000-$4,100.
Short-term resistance level: $3,750-$3,800. If the price rebounds and is blocked near $3,750, one can short with a light position, using $3,800 as a stop loss, targeting down to $3,600.
Key support levels: $3,520-$3,560 (fourth wave theory pullback level) and $3,200-$3,300 (strong support range). If the price dips to around $3,520 and stabilizes, one can gradually build long positions, using $3,450 as a stop loss, targeting up to $3,800.

Precision needs no further explanation, greatness is self-evident!
Aunt 3790 short position entered, 3690 secured 100 points of space
Counter-trade 3710 long position entered 3775 secured 65 points of space

Big cake 117700 short position entered, 116059 secured 1700 points of space
Counter-trade 116200 long position entered 117200 secured 1000 points of space

The current price of Erbing has reached around 3820 today (as of the time of writing), with a slight increase of 0.2% in the last 24 hours and an intraday volatility of 0.8%. The resistance level above is currently in the 3880-3900 range; if it breaks through, it may accelerate past 4000. The first support level below is currently at 3700; if it breaks down, it may drop to 3650-330, with a strong support at 3600. The fear and greed index has also reached 45, and the large holder long-short ratio is 1:1.1, indicating clear market divergence.

According to the current technical indicators, the MACD daily line shows a death cross but the green bars are narrowing. The 4-hour MACD has initially shown a golden cross, indicating a buildup of short-term rebound momentum. The daily RSI is at 48, which is a neutral state, while the 4-hour RSI at 43 is in a state of oversold recovery, with momentum indicators leaning towards volatility.

Long position suggestion: If it stabilizes after a pullback to 3700-3720 USD, consider entering a light long position with a stop loss at 3,670 and a target of 3780-3800.
Short position suggestion: If it rebounds to 3850-3880 and faces pressure, consider a short position with a stop loss at 3900 and a target of 3800-3770.
Positioning suggestion: Total position should not exceed 25%, focusing on swing trading in the 3700-3880 range, and increase the position after breaking through key levels.

After yesterday's turbulent pattern, the price of Bitcoin is currently around 117400-118000 (as of the time of writing), with a 24-hour decline of 0.3% and an intraday fluctuation of about 1.2%. The first resistance level above is at 118500, and the second resistance level is around 119500. The first key support level below is at 116500, and the second support level is around 115000.

Currently, according to technical indicators, the MACD on the daily level shows a death cross, with the DIF line crossing below the DEA, but the green bars on the 4-hour level are narrowing, indicating a weakening of short-term bearish momentum. The daily RSI at 45 is at the lower edge of the neutral zone, while the 4-hour RSI at 42 is close to oversold, suggesting a demand for a rebound but with limited strength. The daily Bollinger Bands are narrowing, with volatility dropping to the lowest level in nearly two weeks, indicating that a direction choice is imminent.
Long position suggestion: If the price stabilizes after a pullback to 116800-117000, consider a light long position, with a stop loss at 116500 and a target of 118000-118500.
Short position suggestion: If it rebounds to 118300-118800 and faces resistance, consider a short position, with a stop loss at 119000 and a target of 117500-117000.
Positioning suggestion: Total position should not exceed 30%.

Today, the Ethereum price is fluctuating at a high level in the range of 3730-3850, currently around 3780, and may face selling pressure in the short term.
From a technical perspective, the support level for Ethereum is at 3650, while the strong resistance level has risen to 3950. The MACD has formed a death cross at a high level, the RSI has entered the overbought zone, and the risk of a double top formation is evident. If it breaks below 3735, it may trigger technical stop-losses.
In terms of market dynamics, the Ethereum 2.0 upgrade is approaching, which could enhance network efficiency, but the tightening liquidity in the short term may affect prices. Abraxas Capital has increased its holdings by 242,000 ETH, pushing its investment return close to 50%, but caution is needed regarding profit-taking. The U.S. SEC's regulatory stance on cryptocurrencies is becoming stricter, which may trigger market volatility.
Long position advice: Enter when the price retraces to the support area of 3730-3700, with a stop-loss at 3670 and a target around 3780-3850.
Short position advice: Test the short when rebounding to the resistance level of 3820-3850, with a stop-loss at 3880 and a target around 3700-3650.

The price of Bitcoin reached a high of 119,800 yesterday, attempting to break through the 120,000 mark multiple times but failing to do so. From the afternoon to midnight, the price began to retrace, and as of today, it is oscillating in the range of 117,500-118,500, with an opening price around 118,000. There has been no breakthrough of key resistance levels in the short term. Currently, market trading volume has decreased, and the market is quiet, with a short-term direction yet to be determined. A mid-term upward trend has formed, but a breakthrough of the resistance level near $119,500 is needed.
From a technical perspective, the current support level for Bitcoin is at 116,500, with resistance at 119,500. On the daily chart, the Bollinger Bands are beginning to contract, and the MACD momentum is leaning bearish. The top formation and the three black crows candlestick pattern imply a risk of short-term adjustment.
In terms of market dynamics, expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes continue to rise, leading to volatility in global financial markets, with Bitcoin, as a high-risk asset, facing pressure. The institution Galaxy completed an OTC trade of 80,000 BTC, indicating an inflow of institutional funds, but short-term selling pressure should still be monitored. Global trading volume has decreased compared to last week, market sentiment is cautious, and open contracts have reached an all-time high, which could intensify volatility.
Long position operation suggestion: Accumulate positions in batches when retracing to the support range of 117,500-118,000, with a stop loss at 117,500 and a target of 119,000-120,000.
Short position operation suggestion: Attempt a light short when rebounding to the resistance range of 119,300-119,500, with a stop loss at 120,000 and a target of 117,000.

The concubine ultimately failed to break through the 3950-point level. If you had shorted at the high, you would now have a profit of over a hundred points.

Morning pancake strategy, after a day of fluctuations, the evening short position has reached the target point as expected. I wonder if my friends have caught it. The aggressive traders can look at 117500 below, while the conservative traders can take profit and exit.