In the early morning of August 1, Bitcoin rebounded to the $116,000 range after a spike near $114,300. Previous analysis on July 29 indicated a long lower shadow at $117,500, showing clear signs of support from the main players, but the KDJ indicator is about to form a death cross around 50, indicating divergence risk. The daily level shows that Bitcoin is at the end of a wedge convergence, with the probability of breaking through $119,000 dropping to 25%.

Last night, Coinbase saw a net outflow of 800 BTC from institutions, and on-chain data shows increased short-term selling pressure. Additionally, $2.99 billion in tokens will be unlocked in August, with large unlocks of Solana (SOL) and Worldcoin (WLD) potentially affecting market liquidity. On July 31, the Fear and Greed Index was at 72 (Greed), but large whale funds showed a net outflow, reflecting that some major holders are taking profits or avoiding risks.

Short-term resistance levels: $117,500-$118,500. If the price rebounds to around $118,500 and fails to break through effectively, a light short position may be considered, with a stop loss reference at $119,500 and a target down to $115,000.

Key support levels: $114,300 (the low on the early morning of August 1) and $112,000 (support from the rising trend line since June). If the price dips to around $114,300 and stabilizes, a short-term long position may be attempted, with a stop loss reference at $113,500 and a target up to $116,500.