2025 Bull Market Reflexivity Thinking:

① Since there was a clone season in the historical Q4 (2017), it is highly probable that this round of bull market will experience fluctuations in Q4 and then turn bearish.

② Historically, there has been no clone season in Q3, and there is no memory of this in human thinking, so the probability of a clone season in this Q3 is the highest.

Things to note:

People are overly optimistic due to the night market and naively think back to the clone season in Q4 2017, escaping the peak too late, ultimately placing their hopes on next year's interest rate cut.

However, the force of mean reversion is greater than everything.

Emotional factors are ranked second and can only determine the mid-term peak. For example, at the end of 2024, if the greed index reaches 95°, it indicates a mid-term peak, but not the peak of a four-year cycle.

As for the news front, it is ranked last. There are too many news factors in a bull market; if there isn't this news, there will be that news, and it can also be anticipated in advance.

The first interest rate cut is somewhat useful, the second leads to a rebound, and the third results in a decline.

Mean reversion (fundamentals) > emotional factors > news factors (positive news).