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U.S. Tariff Increases Impact Global Trade
Increasing tariffs, from an economic perspective, aims to protect domestic industries, enhance the competitiveness of domestic goods, and improve labor productivity. It seeks to improve trade balances, reduce deficits, and decrease reliance on imports of key industries.
The additional tariffs will impact both Mexico and China, and repeated increases in tariffs will raise costs. Mexico's exports account for 40% of GDP, with 80% going to the U.S. The data shows a heavy reliance on the U.S., making it difficult to quickly adjust through global reallocation. A conservative estimate suggests that Mexico's GDP will decline by 2%, which will be a significant blow.
The additional tariffs will impact both Mexico and China, and repeated increases in tariffs will raise costs. Mexico's exports account for 40% of GDP, with 80% going to the U.S. The data shows a heavy reliance on the U.S., making it difficult to quickly adjust through global reallocation. A conservative estimate suggests that Mexico's GDP will decline by 2%, which will be a significant blow.
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I thought I was afraid of difficulties, but when difficulties come, I realize that I am not; in fact, I enjoy difficulties and challenges more, because in this process I can explore the unknown.
#日常记录
#日常记录
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Essay: The Reality and Illusion of the World
In the past, when I saw “everything is nothing”, I only stayed at the literal meaning. We have no way to know the actual appearance of the world, and can only understand the world through the appearance of things. Words were invented, but they cannot bring actual experience. For example, apples are red and sweet. When you see apples, a series of related scenes will automatically flash in your mind. Through the appearance it shows, you can get a cognition of the whole world. If you don’t have real experience, it’s difficult to get the actual feeling if you only rely on appearance to understand things. When others confide in you, it’s difficult to truly empathize because you haven’t experienced it.
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Insight into cyclical fluctuations: the wisdom of understanding and adapting to economic cycles
More often than not, we need to judge what cycle we are in and where we are in the cycle.
Cycles, as a common phenomenon in nature and social economy, are essentially things that go back and forth in a certain pattern. One thing happens in a certain order, one after another, and repeats in order. It is like the change of seasons, which repeats in time. In the economy, prosperity, depression, recession, and recovery occur over and over again. This cyclical fluctuation is not only affected by natural laws, but also deeply rooted in the complexity of human behavior.
Cycles, as a common phenomenon in nature and social economy, are essentially things that go back and forth in a certain pattern. One thing happens in a certain order, one after another, and repeats in order. It is like the change of seasons, which repeats in time. In the economy, prosperity, depression, recession, and recovery occur over and over again. This cyclical fluctuation is not only affected by natural laws, but also deeply rooted in the complexity of human behavior.
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Schacht: The genius behind Germany's economic revival
In the long history of modern Germany, Schacht is undoubtedly a very controversial figure. With his outstanding economic talent and extraordinary courage, he pulled Germany out of economic difficulties in just a few years and achieved a leap in industry and military. However, his fate was closely linked to the Nazi regime, and ultimately left a complicated mark on the scale of history.
Schacht, the economic wizard who served as the president of the Bundesbank at the age of 46, is known for his shrewdness and ability. He successfully quelled two catastrophic financial crises and laid a solid foundation for the stability and development of the German economy. When the Nazi Party came to power in 1933, Schacht saw a stage for his own ambitions. He took the initiative to approach Xi, won the trust of the Nazi leader with his economic talent, and was entrusted with important tasks.
Schacht, the economic wizard who served as the president of the Bundesbank at the age of 46, is known for his shrewdness and ability. He successfully quelled two catastrophic financial crises and laid a solid foundation for the stability and development of the German economy. When the Nazi Party came to power in 1933, Schacht saw a stage for his own ambitions. He took the initiative to approach Xi, won the trust of the Nazi leader with his economic talent, and was entrusted with important tasks.
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What is a coin mixing service? How does it work?
Coin mixing service, also known as mixing service or Bitcoin obfuscation service, is a service that increases the privacy and anonymity of transactions by mixing multiple cryptocurrency transactions together. It is usually used to enhance the transaction privacy of users on the blockchain and prevent others from tracking personal identities or transaction flows by analyzing transaction records.
Operation method:
Choose a suitable currency mixing service provider: Users need to choose a reputable, safe and reliable currency mixing service provider. These service providers usually provide online platforms or specific software for currency mixing operations.
Operation method:
Choose a suitable currency mixing service provider: Users need to choose a reputable, safe and reliable currency mixing service provider. These service providers usually provide online platforms or specific software for currency mixing operations.
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Schacht and the German Economy on the Eve of World War II
In random interviews after the E-war, many Germans even missed the NC Germany before the war, because the economic development had improved and the unemployment rate had decreased. After the Y-war, the German economy plummeted due to the world economic crisis and the unemployment rate increased a lot, but due to the development of NC, the German economy has become better.
In the five years after the NC came to power, the number of unemployed people in Germany dropped to 1 million, and the entire NC government promoted social welfare and organized people to participate in welfare vacations, which many people later missed and was also the NC's economic miracle.
In the five years after the NC came to power, the number of unemployed people in Germany dropped to 1 million, and the entire NC government promoted social welfare and organized people to participate in welfare vacations, which many people later missed and was also the NC's economic miracle.
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When the dollar loses control: currency shocks from Bretton Woods to the Plaza Accord
After the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the US dollar began to fall. What should be done? Some economists proposed to restore the gold standard. European countries also hoped to take the opportunity to expand the influence of their own currencies.
In the 1970s, the collapse of the Bretton Woods system and the subsequent global economic turmoil formed a complex background. In the same year when the system was declared over, the world faced a serious oil crisis, with oil prices soaring three times in just six months. The crisis first hit the Western world, especially European countries, which were forced to deal with soaring oil prices and had no spare energy to promote the internationalization of their own currencies.
In the 1970s, the collapse of the Bretton Woods system and the subsequent global economic turmoil formed a complex background. In the same year when the system was declared over, the world faced a serious oil crisis, with oil prices soaring three times in just six months. The crisis first hit the Western world, especially European countries, which were forced to deal with soaring oil prices and had no spare energy to promote the internationalization of their own currencies.
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How the US dollar came to dominate the world? The end of the Bretton Woods system
How did the monetary system come into being after World War II? Before the U.S. dollar became a hard currency, international trade was initially conducted with the help of precious metals, most notably gold. There is a familiar concept called the "gold standard". In the 19th century, paper money was issued, and the face value was required to be linked to a certain weight of gold. There were "gold pounds" and "gold francs", and gold and paper money were exchangeable. The gold standard existed for about 60 years.
When gold took on a different meaning and became valuable, many people smelled the way to get rich by mining gold and developing foreign trade to obtain foreign exchange linked to gold. You may be confused when you hear this. The pros and cons of foreign trade, "surplus" and "deficit" are full of news every day. In the era of the gold standard, the government's strategy for dealing with these fluctuations was laissez-faire. Trade deficits lead to the loss of gold, which naturally reduces the money supply and reduces prices. This reduces export costs, improves the competitiveness of domestic goods, and the deficit is alleviated. The government often does not interfere with this natural adjustment process, nor does it ask about unemployment and bankruptcy.
When gold took on a different meaning and became valuable, many people smelled the way to get rich by mining gold and developing foreign trade to obtain foreign exchange linked to gold. You may be confused when you hear this. The pros and cons of foreign trade, "surplus" and "deficit" are full of news every day. In the era of the gold standard, the government's strategy for dealing with these fluctuations was laissez-faire. Trade deficits lead to the loss of gold, which naturally reduces the money supply and reduces prices. This reduces export costs, improves the competitiveness of domestic goods, and the deficit is alleviated. The government often does not interfere with this natural adjustment process, nor does it ask about unemployment and bankruptcy.
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Habituation and social adaptation
People will also get used to the harsh environment, and the corrosion invasion will be endless.
Some journalists have interviewed German people about their Nazi period. They believe that the years from 1933 to 1939 were the best time of their lives and were not evil. If Hezbollah had started killing people as soon as he came to power, perhaps people would not accept it.
A few days ago, I also wrote about how Xi was pushed onto the Z car to conquer the world.
It was probably in January 1933 when Helmut Scheherazade came to power, and in April 1933, the German government called on the public to boycott Jewish businesses. At first, there was nothing much, but there was some anti-Semitic sentiment.
Some journalists have interviewed German people about their Nazi period. They believe that the years from 1933 to 1939 were the best time of their lives and were not evil. If Hezbollah had started killing people as soon as he came to power, perhaps people would not accept it.
A few days ago, I also wrote about how Xi was pushed onto the Z car to conquer the world.
It was probably in January 1933 when Helmut Scheherazade came to power, and in April 1933, the German government called on the public to boycott Jewish businesses. At first, there was nothing much, but there was some anti-Semitic sentiment.
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Breaking Free from Learned Helplessness: Regaining Control
When humans and animals realize that they have no control over their surroundings or what might happen, they begin to think, feel, or act in a passive and helpless manner.
This phenomenon is called learned helplessness, and it is not an inherent trait; no human or animal is born with the idea or belief that they can lose control of their environment at any time. It is a learned behavior that develops over time through a series of experiences in which an individual is unable to control their circumstances, or believes that they lack control.
This phenomenon is called learned helplessness, and it is not an inherent trait; no human or animal is born with the idea or belief that they can lose control of their environment at any time. It is a learned behavior that develops over time through a series of experiences in which an individual is unable to control their circumstances, or believes that they lack control.
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The German economic crisis and the rise of the NC Party, things before World War II
When talking about the cause of the outbreak of World War II, perhaps everyone will subconsciously think that it is the product of the Great Depression. Some people may think that it is mainly a Jewish problem, so the economic crisis in Europe and the world caused it, which intensified the contradictions and led to the rise of the NC Party. But things are far from that simple. About a hundred years earlier, the Great Depression caused by the stock market crash in the United States in 1929 was very serious, but it did not reach the point of being out of control. Countries were already in a very depressed state, so the Great Depression exacerbated the global economic crisis, but it was not the fuse.
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The development of currency, do you know?
Do you know the origin of money? It originated from barter. Simply put, as society develops, people exchange what they need for what they need. For example, farmers’ production advantage is food, but they are not good at meat, poultry and clothing. However, they can exchange food for other things they need. This is the early "barter". However, with development, there will be inequality, shortages, and information gaps. In this case, a social medium will appear, which is money.
Currency can be food, silk products, gold and silver, or even stone. On a small island in the Pacific Ocean, because there are no other resources such as gold and silver, and because stones are difficult to transport, stones are used as currency. Wealth is determined by how many stones you have. It is not determined by how many fish you catch. For people in different environments, what value will stones have. So what is the essence of currency? My understanding is that it is a kind of "credit", a credit endorsement of services used by a country to develop economic development.
Currency can be food, silk products, gold and silver, or even stone. On a small island in the Pacific Ocean, because there are no other resources such as gold and silver, and because stones are difficult to transport, stones are used as currency. Wealth is determined by how many stones you have. It is not determined by how many fish you catch. For people in different environments, what value will stones have. So what is the essence of currency? My understanding is that it is a kind of "credit", a credit endorsement of services used by a country to develop economic development.
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Positive psychological suggestion: This too shall pass!
Long, long ago, in the East, a monarch asked King Solomon for a motto that would apply to both good and bad times.
King Solomon considered for a moment and gave the monarch a motto:
“This too shall pass.
This phrase "This too shall pass" applies not only to success and failure, passion and regret, but also to good times and bad times. No matter what situation you are facing, it reminds us that time will heal everything, and even in difficult times, we must believe that all this will eventually pass.
So whether you are unhappy with your current life, want to change jobs, move, or leave a relationship, don’t worry about adapting to the new environment. Even if the current situation is not over, our mentality is gradually adapting.
King Solomon considered for a moment and gave the monarch a motto:
“This too shall pass.
This phrase "This too shall pass" applies not only to success and failure, passion and regret, but also to good times and bad times. No matter what situation you are facing, it reminds us that time will heal everything, and even in difficult times, we must believe that all this will eventually pass.
So whether you are unhappy with your current life, want to change jobs, move, or leave a relationship, don’t worry about adapting to the new environment. Even if the current situation is not over, our mentality is gradually adapting.
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The impact of habitual behavior: Why it’s important to be authentic with people you have long-term relationships with.
There was a boy named Jonah. He was smart, but he had a small physical defect that made him unconfident: he was born without a little toe on his right foot. Jonah was afraid that others would laugh at him, so he had to take various measures to cover it up. For example, he didn't dare to go into the water during swimming lessons; in summer, he didn't dare to wear sandals. But how can you make these behaviors look natural?
Jonah began to tell all kinds of little lies. For example, he had a cold today, so he couldn't go swimming. Or his cat chewed up his sandals, so he had to wear sneakers.
Jonah began to tell all kinds of little lies. For example, he had a cold today, so he couldn't go swimming. Or his cat chewed up his sandals, so he had to wear sneakers.
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From ancient times to the present: What do you think about the evolution of currency and its impact on human society?
In ancient times, widely accepted, easy to preserve, and highly liquid commodities played the role of money, which is reflected in linguistics. For example, the English word "capital" comes from the Latin word for "cattle," and "salary" comes from the Latin word for "salt." The origins of these words reflect the fact that cattle and salt were used as physical currency in ancient times, and these commodities are collectively referred to as "physical currency." Physical currency has a long history, and new archaeological research even shows that early humans even widely exchanged stone tools.
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Futures Legend: Wang Baofeng - a legendary figure in free life, worth learning
Chairman of Haibaoquan Investment Co., Ltd. A legend in the futures circle, he has been profitable for 22 consecutive years, with a very high winning rate in transactions and has never had a position blown up.
As the first generation of red vests in the domestic futures market, he is extremely sensitive to price fluctuations. He once shorted LME copper futures at a high level above US$10,000, and also went long when the yen fell to 80. His investment style is a combination of short-term, medium- and long-term, and arbitrage models.
●Started to participate in foreign exchange transactions in 1994;
●Since 2009, it has mainly shifted to the global market, focusing on foreign exchange, futures and oil trading;
●On January 23, 2015, "Baofeng Asset Management Plan No. 1" was established. The product scale is 364 million, and the cumulative return as of August 7, 2015 is 19.1%;
As the first generation of red vests in the domestic futures market, he is extremely sensitive to price fluctuations. He once shorted LME copper futures at a high level above US$10,000, and also went long when the yen fell to 80. His investment style is a combination of short-term, medium- and long-term, and arbitrage models.
●Started to participate in foreign exchange transactions in 1994;
●Since 2009, it has mainly shifted to the global market, focusing on foreign exchange, futures and oil trading;
●On January 23, 2015, "Baofeng Asset Management Plan No. 1" was established. The product scale is 364 million, and the cumulative return as of August 7, 2015 is 19.1%;
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In one minute, you can learn about wallet theft, multiple signatures, and insufficient permissions.
A multi-signature wallet is actually a multi-signature wallet. Multiple people jointly manage one address, and more than half of the managers must agree to use the funds, reducing the risk of asset theft.
advantage:
1. It can improve account security. Compared with single-signature wallets, hackers who want to attack multi-signature addresses need to crack the private keys of multiple people in order to obtain the property in the multi-signature address, which is relatively more difficult.
2. Implement data backup to avoid property loss after the private key is lost. If it is a single-signature wallet, all assets cannot be obtained after the private key is lost. If it is a multi-signature wallet, taking 2/3 as an example, if one of the private keys is lost, the assets can still be traded normally.
advantage:
1. It can improve account security. Compared with single-signature wallets, hackers who want to attack multi-signature addresses need to crack the private keys of multiple people in order to obtain the property in the multi-signature address, which is relatively more difficult.
2. Implement data backup to avoid property loss after the private key is lost. If it is a single-signature wallet, all assets cannot be obtained after the private key is lost. If it is a multi-signature wallet, taking 2/3 as an example, if one of the private keys is lost, the assets can still be traded normally.
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What is the Juglar cycle? What are its origins and characteristics?
During the Great Depression of the 1930s, Keynes believed that economic development would inevitably undergo a cyclical movement that started upward, then downward, and then upward again, with obvious regularity, namely the economic cycle.
Keynes believed that investment fluctuations caused by the law of diminishing marginal efficiency of capital were the main reason for the economic cycle. The diminishing marginal efficiency of capital led to the failure of people's expectations of investment returns, which led to an increase in liquidity preference and thus triggered a crisis.
In economics, there has always been controversy about whether the causes of economic cycle fluctuations are endogenous or exogenous, which can also be viewed from both the supply side and the demand side.
Keynes believed that investment fluctuations caused by the law of diminishing marginal efficiency of capital were the main reason for the economic cycle. The diminishing marginal efficiency of capital led to the failure of people's expectations of investment returns, which led to an increase in liquidity preference and thus triggered a crisis.
In economics, there has always been controversy about whether the causes of economic cycle fluctuations are endogenous or exogenous, which can also be viewed from both the supply side and the demand side.
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