风火山林

Looking at ETH over the past few days, after several attempts to push higher, the pattern has been hit hard, and the daily line has again formed a long upper shadow. With this structure of fluctuations, don't force the contracts. Wait for a clear direction before proceeding, and first protect the principal.

Good heavens! Just a few days ago, the whole world was on edge, wallets tightly shut, waiting for Iran to pull a big surprise that would shock the audience. And what happened? Thunderous roars, but no rain... oh wait, not even a drizzle! Iran's recent moves are truly the champions of tough talk. The strong words were like thunder on the mountain, and the posture made it seem like they were about to flip the table. And in the end? A mere feint, just a touch! This ability to bluff is simply unparalleled, even the Oscars owe them a little golden statue.
So after all that fuss, it was just pure verbal sparring? The whole world was on tenterhooks, the stock market was jittery, oil prices were skyrocketing, and ordinary people had to pay more for takeout... only to find out that they were just relying on a tough mouth to hold their ground?
What's most ridiculous? Being so tough that in the end, it’s still our wallets that foot the bill. The market panicked, oil prices were driven up, and these extra scare fees and emotional losses have to come out of the tightly shut wallets of everyone, right? Iran may have kept it to a minimum, but the costs of that minimization are shared globally!
Alas, the farce comes to an end, and wallets get hurt. Next time Iran shouts big again, should we cover our ears or hold our wallets? Forget it, maybe it's best to keep a tight grip on the wallet! After all, the end of all this tough talk leads to our wallets silently crying.

Want to speculate on a price surge? That requires real money to pile up!
Dumping? As long as no one is buying, it can drop all the way down until even your mother wouldn't recognize it!
Friends, take my advice: when there's no market movement, it's unnecessary to trade, keep your hands off, and make fewer trades. Frequent trading can eat away at your capital with fees, not to mention getting buried by misjudging the rhythm.
In the crypto world, what kills people isn't just the K-line charts going up and down. It's those myths of becoming rich overnight! After seeing too many, you might really think you can replicate that success, but the outcome can be very cruel.
How much margin you open does have an impact, but the most critical part is how you manage your positions! Don't just go all in at the slightest chance, and don't hold on stubbornly to the end. Pair basic technical judgment with it, and the core is to manage your bullets well!
No technology or news is more important than two words: stay alive! When the market is bad, losing less is winning. As long as you keep your capital, you won't fear running out of fuel.
Survive, and you will be qualified to see the next bull market. Don't let the dream of sudden wealth send you off the stage early! Stay steady! Don't know how to be steady? Check out the live market analysis of Fenghuoshanlin, as steady as a mountain!

The crypto world is about to destroy itself! New stories are hard to come by, and old stories are told to death. After the climax of the Bitcoin ETF, what real assets are on-chain? Decentralized networks have all become PowerPoint presentations! Now the whole network is doing one thing: shearing sheep. As soon as new projects emerge, they are immediately exploited by scientists until there's nothing left.
On-chain is even colder; low gas fees don't mean more people, it means a ghost town! The remaining transactions are all scientists cutting each other and gamblers moving bricks.
Value investors: Holding coins results in greater losses, faith collapses;
Short-term traders: Mutual liquidation leads to everyone losing everything!
If the crypto world could develop in the direction it originally intended, it would be great for blockchain technology research and development, and to create features that ordinary people can use, even putting real assets like houses and bonds on-chain. Instead, we are playing with air coins every day, letting VCs blindly throw money to support giant air infants!
The casino is not scary; what’s scary is that only the house and gamblers are left to stab each other.

In such a dull market, I suddenly began to enjoy reading. Flipping through books can calm the mind, and trading also requires the cultivation of one's character. A passage in a book is thought-provoking: even if one accurately predicts the market direction, impatience is still the root of losses.
Most partners have experienced such situations; they firmly believe that the market will rise, but enter too early and are washed out by short-term reverse fluctuations; just after stopping losses and leaving, it starts to soar. This happens repeatedly, and when the real trend arrives, they have either exhausted their funds or lost their courage, missing the opportunity. The market will not immediately reward you for being 'correct'.
Reading cultivates one's temperament, honing precisely this patience to wait for the flowers to bloom. In the turbulent market tide, it is more precious than precise predictions.

Looking at the market and comparing cycles, this round of Bitcoin halving relies on laying out altcoins and waiting for tenfold or hundredfold returns, the grass on the grave is more than three feet tall, and running fast is another story. The times have really changed! Want to get rich quick with altcoins? It's harder than climbing to the sky! Money-making opportunities? Rare as phoenix feathers and unicorn horns! Risk of being cut? Overwhelming!
Personal experience: laying out altcoins that got halved, the result? Halved! Again halved! After going in circles and calculating? Not a penny earned, just wasted efforts! To say this year's returns, it was really from contracts! BTC is good, the most stable, it rises slowly, but the harsh reality is: only BTC doesn't trap people.
The cryptocurrency circle has gradually matured and grown, becoming 'refined'! It’s no longer the time when you could pick up money everywhere! Are you still stuck in the old mindset of 'casually buying altcoins to get rich'? You will really suffer losses! The myth of getting rich quick has come to an end! Being cautious is better than anything else! Don’t let greed consume your capital!
However, many partners who see my actual trading profits will describe it as steady as Mount Tai! 😄

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Suddenly I don't want to take it anymore. Just put it in the bag first!

Can this one land?

Recently, there have been too many pump-and-dump schemes in altcoins. Looking at ZKJ, just a few lines down left me dumbfounded, reminding me of the largest loss I had with SATS, where a few lines down led to a significant loss. With a full margin model, I didn't even have enough margin to cover the losses, resulting in a huge deficit. Now, with altcoins operating unilaterally, I have switched to a per-position model. Even if the price drops, I would only lose the margin. In a market lacking liquidity, one must be cautious. Under a full margin model, if an altcoin drops suddenly, I wouldn't even have time to close my position, and I could lose all my margin.

Recently reviewing and reflecting, I looked at the delivery orders from the past two months. It hurts; several orders had single profits of tens of thousands of US dollars, but were severely pulled back to square one, ultimately resulting in a meager profit exit. 😤
In my spare time, I casually read Livermore's memoirs, and the insights were quite profound. This tuition cannot be paid in vain; the lesson is deeply engraved: strong trends must be held firmly for the long term! Let profits run fully! 🚀
In a volatile market/range market? You must switch to a swing trading mindset! Take profits when you see them, never get attached to the battle!
Using a swing mindset in a trending market can only get you some soup; using a trend approach in a volatile market is destined to be fruitless or even result in losses!
Starting anew, focus on identifying the true trends!

Since this ETH trade, I spend time every day watching the market, and the more I watch, the less desire I have to make trades. Now I don't want to touch either side - it's not cowardice, the market is just too dirty!

Why do only a minority make money in the trading arena? Most lose money or even end up with nothing? Because most people lose it all themselves, which is what the 28 Law refers to in the market!
80% of people stubbornly hold on when they are losing, always thinking "it will come back".
When losing money, they play dead, and cutting losses feels like life or death. They go all in, borrowing money to increase their position and gamble on luck, resulting in liquidation and exit, leaving no chance to correct their mistakes!
The 20% winners (I like to think I belong to this group, haha) only follow the big trend (buy when it goes up, short when it goes down), set stop losses in advance, and never go all in (always leave an escape route even if they are optimistic). Small losses are acceptable, but big losses are not.
Those who get liquidated can't even sit at the table; when a bull market comes, it has nothing to do with you! As long as your account is not dead, when the bull market comes, you are in the game! This is the only opportunity for a comeback!
(Don't learn from the 80% cannon fodder; learn from the 20% tough ones: follow the trend, be willing to cut losses, and keep some capital.)
For example:
You invest 10,000 yuan in cryptocurrency.
80% of the time, you operate fully invested, lose 30%-50% without cutting losses, and eventually lose it all → even if the market turns favorable, it will have nothing to do with you.
20% of the time, you invest a maximum of 5,000 each time, cut losses at 10%-30% → even if you make five mistakes in a row, you still have half of your capital left, and when the market turns, you can still fight!

Small money is not worth earning, big money cannot be earned, and one gets slapped in the face by the situation. This cycle has been going on for almost three months, and having too big of an ambition isn't necessarily a good thing! 🤣

The market operates according to its own logic, necessity, and randomness.
1. The necessary part: such as human nature (greed, fear), major trend directions.
2. The random part: such as breaking news, collective emotions at a certain moment, some coincidences.
This leads to a phenomenon: history tends to repeat itself, but it will not repeat exactly the same way. Those necessary parts will allow similar scenarios (such as similar price charts, similar emotions) to reappear.📈📉 However, those random factors combined are almost impossible to be exactly the same, so every time it 'replays', there will be some differences.
Therefore, learning various trading methods (reading candlesticks, using indicators, recognizing patterns) is useful and necessary. But learning them is not to find a guaranteed winning secret, but to understand how the market operates from different perspectives. The ultimate goal is to develop your own ability to make trading judgments. Behind the market are real people buying and selling; the technology is just a tool to help you understand these behaviors.
The key to learning trading is actually a process of 'clarifying your understanding': after learning a lot of techniques, you will slowly discover that there are only a few core rules. Having experienced market fluctuations, you will truly understand how important it is to control risk.
Peeling away various complex surface phenomena, the most fundamental aspect of the market is actually very simple: the price either goes up or down, knowing that the market will repeat itself, but don't expect to replicate the last time.
Learning technology is for skill practice, not to find a 'sure-win method'.
In the end, grasp the core rules, manage risk well, and see through the essence of price movements is enough.
Although I am optimistic about the overall trend direction for Ethereum this time, unfortunately, after holding some positions for a few days, the big profits are gone again.
Although it is regrettable, those who should pay the price still have to pay it!

The e-guard has temporarily fallen, and the layout has been slapped in the face again! 😓. The set position was actually triggered.

Is it possible to predict every step accurately? That's a matter for the gods, not for me. I only understand starting from the results; when the market clearly indicates a rise or fall with prices, I follow along. The essence of systematic trading is to follow rather than guess. The old saying on Wall Street goes: 'A good trader has no opinion. The direction of the market is my opinion!' Following the trend is often disparaged as 'buying high and selling low,' and it's easy to incur losses. It’s simply that the clearer the trend, the smaller the probability of its continuation, and the risk of reversal increases sharply. Thus, buying at the top and selling at the bottom has become an inescapable nightmare. Losses stem from one fundamental error: misjudgment. The only correct action is to stop-loss. The most dangerous mindset is taking chances! The market will always be naughty, fluctuating, and unpredictable. Only by persistently stopping losses can one remain in the game and retain the capital to participate in the next round of opportunities. Trading is not about who is right more often, but about who lasts longer.

Last night, Bitcoin fluctuated 2000 points up and down, directly erasing the gains of many altcoins that had worked hard all day. This is a typical example of 'false prosperity.'
On the surface, the gains of altcoins look impressive, but the core issue is: insufficient depth and poor liquidity!
It seems that the price has increased, but the order book is as thin as paper. A slight sneeze from Bitcoin or any minor market movement, with just a small amount of selling pressure or lack of buying, can instantly breach the pathetic support levels of altcoins, evaporating their gains in an instant.
With low circulation, a small amount of capital can create a 'false sense of prosperity.' Once real demand or support cannot keep up, especially when BTC is unstable, the speed at which prices collapse far exceeds expectations.
When liquidity is exhausted, prices become extremely sensitive to any directional force, and fluctuations are greatly amplified. They fall quickly, and when they rise, the gains are also inflated.
Therefore, in a market with scarce liquidity, the gains of altcoins are often 'false prosperity.' Prices without deep support are like rootless duckweed; the regular fluctuations of BTC can knock them back to their original state. Don't just focus on the gain numbers; pay more attention to trading depth and liquidity health!

From both the daily and four-hour levels, Ethereum's upward channel has opened, and it has strongly broken through the BOX oscillation zone at the 4H level. The larger the level, the greater the energy it brings. Be bold, set the first target at 3000. Long positions are still in place; either it continues to soar, or there won't be any profit!

Ethereum ETF has started to recover, with continuous net inflows. Ethereum is also strong now; when it was soft, it could be described as weak and powerless. What would be a more appropriate description now?