Evening Thoughts Direction: Cautiously short due to the bearish resonance of technical indicators (moving averages, MACD, BOLL), but beware of oversold rebound risks. Entry Timing: Enter near the resistance level of 112086.14 (R1) during a rebound or when the price breaks below 110484.00 (24h low). Stop Loss Setting: If shorting, set the stop loss above 112721.17 (R2), approximately 1.2%; if chasing a short after breaking support, set the stop loss above 110853.53 (S1), approximately 0.5%. Target Price Levels: First target 110255.97 (S2), potential profit 1.0%; second target 109620.93 (S3), potential profit 1.6%. If it breaks below S3, hold until below 108000 (need to observe volume).
Note: This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice!
Early Morning Thoughts • Direction: Cautiously go long (oversold rebound), waiting for funds to shift.
• Entry: Stabilize above 114500 and try a light long position if 1h closes positively; or break above 115084.87 and confirm on a pullback without breaking.
Evening Thoughts Direction: Cautious Short Entry Timing: If the price rebounds to the 113000-113200 USDT range (close to MA10 and BOLL midline) and shows signs of stagnation (such as long upper shadows or decreased volume), consider entering a short position. Stop Loss Setting: Set the stop loss at 113936.00 USDT (24H high point), with a stop loss margin of about 1.4%, meeting low-risk requirements. Target Price: First target 111545.83 USDT (Support Level 1), second target 110761.86 USDT (Support Level 2), potential return of 1.6%-3.1%. If it breaks below Support Level 1, hold until Target 2. #加密市场回调
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Goal: 10x!
Threshold: 500+ U.S.
Only requirements: 100% compliance, strong execution, no picky orders, no independent thinking, and strict adherence to the profit-making model! #杰克逊霍尔会议 #加密市场回调
• Current Situation: Price 113002.4 USDT (24h drop 0.494%), Support 112650.53, Resistance 113695.43, Trend is oscillating and slightly bearish.
• Indicator Signals: Moving averages in bearish arrangement, MACD death cross (downward momentum increasing), BOLL touching lower band (oversold), RSI oversold, KDJ death cross; capital flow shows a net outflow of 311 million USDT in contracts over 24h, spot market continues to see short-term outflow.
• Operation Suggestions: Exercise caution when shorting. Aggressive traders may consider shorting on a rebound at 113500-113695, while conservative traders should short if breaking below 112650; stop loss at 114000 (or break 114343), targets 112254 (S2), 111605 (S3), close position if not breaking 112650.
• Note: The analysis is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.
The recent trend, influenced by expectations of a rate cut, has seen the market break new highs and is now within striking distance of 4800. However, a short-term gap-filling exercise is underway, pushing the market down by tens of thousands of points. This period of consolidation and oscillation is bound to lead to significant losses and trapped positions, leaving many investors caught off guard and disoriented!
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Goal: 10x!
Threshold: 500+ U
The only requirement: 100% compliance, strong execution, no picky trades, no overly opinionated thinking, and strict adherence to the comeback model!
This index is used to avoid emotional disturbances in the market, specifically targeting Bitcoin, reflecting market sentiment with values ranging from 0 to 100. The core logic and data sources are as follows:
1. Core Sentiment and Operational Reference
• Extreme Fear (Low Value): Investors are overly worried, which may present a buying opportunity.
• Too Greedy (High Value): Investors are overly excited, and the market may be facing a correction.
2. Five Major Data Sources (including weights)
• Volatility (25%): Comparing Bitcoin's current and maximum values with the average over the past 30/90 days; abnormal increases in volatility = market fear.
• Market Momentum/Trading Volume (25%): Comparing current trading volume and momentum with the average over the past 30/90 days; significant buying in a bullish market = too greedy/bullish.
• Social Media (15%): Measuring the interaction speed of Bitcoin-related posts on Reddit and Twitter; unusually high interactions = increased public interest, corresponding to greed.
• Market Surveys (15%): Conducting cryptocurrency polls on strawpoll.com weekly (2000-3000 responses) to assist in gauging investor sentiment.
• Dominance (10%): An increase in Bitcoin's market capitalization share (dominance) = market fear (shifting to Bitcoin as a safe haven); a decrease = market greed (shifting to high-risk coins).
Direction: Cautiously bullish Reason: Short-term technical indicators (MACD golden cross, bullish alignment of moving averages) resonate with capital inflow, but be wary of medium to long-term capital outflow pressure. Entry Timing: Aggressive: Enter with a light position at the current price of 113784.30 USDT. Conservative: Increase position after breaking 114283.53 USDT (R1) and confirming a pullback. Stop Loss Setting: Support at 112306.03 USDT (S1), stop loss set at 111800.00 USDT (approximately 1.7%). If it breaks R1 and then pulls back, move the stop loss up to 113500.00 USDT (0.7%). Target Price Levels: First target 115270.16 USDT (R2, a gain of 1.3%). Second target 116261.03 USDT (R3, a gain of 2.2%), if momentum continues, hold until near MA120 (116043.49).
1. Bollinger Band Performance: The current price is running between the middle and upper bands, indicating that the short-term market is in a relatively strong pattern; however, it should be noted that the price is close to the upper band, and it is highly likely to face some resistance during subsequent upward movements.
2. MACD Indicator Signal: The current MACD value is positive, which usually reflects an increase in short-term bullish strength, providing technical support for the continuation of a strong price trend.
II. Specific Operational Suggestions
Bitcoin
• Long Position Range: Around 114500 - 115500
• Target Range: Around 117500 - 118500
• Strategy Direction: Based on the comprehensive short-term technical signals, the morning is a good time to consider placing long orders first. #加密市场回调