害怕肘击

$BTC has arrived near 112000 again. Right now, I don't really want to enter. Objectively, the highs of the Bitcoin (大饼) have been consistently decreasing, and tonight's volume is not as high as last night or this morning. Therefore, I think a better entry point would be if there is more volume closer to the 112000 position, or if it breaks down and then returns with volume back to 112000.
Subjectively, because the altcoin (二饼) is too strong, the altcoins have not dropped much this week. I feel that the current drop in altcoins is far from enough to shake people out. If the market is too heavy, it will be difficult to see significant gains after interest rate cuts. So, subjectively, I believe the market will inevitably face a deeper correction in August. However, subjectivity is not as important as objectivity, and if there are trading logic conditions that align, one should still proceed with the trade.
Right now, I can't help but want to enter directly, but there are just three situations: First, if it goes up, I will take another position; second, if it goes down, I will increase my stop-loss a bit; third, if it breaks down and then recovers, I will have to wait for it to wear down before re-entering.

$ETH is just one view: if Bitcoin stops dropping, consider finding other varieties to go long. Opening Bitcoin is likely not as good as going long on altcoin, as objectively, in the past two days, altcoin has been stronger than Bitcoin.

$SUI If anyone is paying attention to this variety, it is also a viewpoint. Sui's 3.3 is about the same as Bitcoin's 112000 threshold. If it touches or drops first and then immediately recovers with volume, there are many people willing to take action here.

I haven't done much market analysis in the past few days because I've been busy. My lack of market observation has led to inaccurate predictions, which has prevented me from entering the market. Without entering the market, I've become even more lazy about observing the market, creating a vicious cycle.

$ETH Bitcoin hit a new low this evening, while Ethereum's low is actually rising, breaking the downward trend line and all the way through 4240. The 23:15 close would have made sense to go long. However, looking at the 4-hour descending channel, I can't see how far ahead my take-profit is, and the profit-loss ratio doesn't support an entry.

$BTC Bitcoin hit 112,000 again this evening, with significant volume retracing back. This is a good place to bet aggressively. Unless there's a significant breakout at this high level, a 1,000-point gain is a sure thing. If you see an opportunity that fits your trading system and don't act on it, you've made a mistake regardless of the outcome.

Also, please note that there haven't been any significant data releases over the past few days, but there is one major market-moving event: Powell's speech at 10 PM Beijing time on Friday.

I'll resume updating at least once a day. If I want to improve, I still have to set some strict standards for myself.

There are US-Russia negotiations at 3 AM. If I can't hold on, I suggest just closing out. There isn't a very good entry point here. I'm also tired now and getting ready to sleep. I'm staying at home today and will re-examine the market this weekend.

The recent 4-hour candles after breaking $BTC look really bad, and the RSI has already diverged. If the slope support here is lost, and if the MACD fast track crosses down again forming a top divergence, the bullish trend won't go far. I've already seen quite a few KOLs mentioning this trend line, and many are suggesting short strategies upon a break.

This is not to encourage everyone to short recklessly; first, the trend line hasn't been broken yet, and no short conditions have formed; secondly, Bitcoin's daily chart should have already diverged several times, yet it can still continue to make new highs. It's quite normal to see a second divergence in a trending segment. More importantly, it's a reminder for everyone to be aware of the risks, as there is still data coming out tonight at 8:30.

Tonight is destined to be a market-moving evening, but I'm still out and won't trade if I can't watch. Don't be afraid of missing out on the market; as long as you have capital, there will always be opportunities.

#BTC再创新高 In the past few days, being out without a computer to monitor the market has been inconvenient, and I can't see things clearly, but an old friend urged me to post, so I will share my thoughts.\n1. Overall, I still maintain yesterday's viewpoint; it's not yet time to touch the peak! Instead of trying to touch the peak, it's better to find some varieties you like, make long trades on pullbacks or breakout trades, and as long as you set a good stop loss, you can give it a try.\n2. When $BTC reached a new high, the trading volume did not expand. Trading volume represents the buying and selling in the market, which indicates market divergence, showing that the divergence here is not significant.\n3. At 8:30 tonight, there will be unemployment data. This data is not as important as the CPI, but it's still considered secondary important data; the market may fluctuate significantly when the data is released.\n\nHere are three more reminders:\n1. Currently, the greed and fear index has reached 68. If it goes above 80 into extreme greed, it will basically be close to a correction.\n2. In the past few days, if you have gone long without a stop loss, you could have made back all your losses and made a profit, but the market is not just a bull market.\n3. The top trader I follow, Teacher Pickle Cat, believes that there is an expectation of a correction in August. If you want to know more, you can find Teacher Cat in my follows.\n\n$BTC \n

Let me briefly share my views on the current market
$ETH Do not short!!!
1. The ETH/BTC exchange rate is on the verge of another volume breakout, there is still distance to the next potential resistance.
2. The selling pressure above the second coin should only be in the range of 4760-4860, we haven't reached that position yet, and the market after 9:30 PM is still greatly influenced by the US stocks. The US stock market reached a new high last night, and there seem to be no potential selling pressure zones found.
3. The last time I shorted was not at 4320 on Sunday, and now there is no consolidation zone, and the indicators have not shown divergence. Even a stubborn short must wait for the market to move.
4. Not acknowledging Ethereum's strength is too stubborn. It's just like watching Bitcoin reach new highs while thinking Ethereum could only reach 4000, and then only realizing Ethereum was really weakening when it broke below 2100. What's the difference?
5. Bitcoin's market cap is too large. If we can push the second coin to a position that no one dares to imagine, everyone should be happy. This will attract more people to the crypto space. Think about it, did you and I come to the crypto space because it would crash?

$BTC I can't even understand it now, and I guess there aren't many experienced folks around, so I won't analyze it.

Finally, I want to reflect a bit. I lost on 3 trades last night, two of which were short positions on the second coin. I think it’s okay to admit mistakes openly, as it can serve as a warning for others.
1. Making money from sleeping trades actually harmed me. Continuous profits from short positions created a path dependency, and in such a bullish market, it made me feel that shorting could also be profitable.
2. I did not stick to my principles and plans. Last night in Chige's livestream, I was actually following Chige, and I have no intention of blaming him; I only blame myself for lacking discipline.

Front row reminder, there will be CPI data tonight at 8:30, market fluctuations may be significant, set your stop-loss in advance if you have positions. If you don't understand what CPI is, you can search for it yourself.

$ETH The low points of the small cycle are rising, and the high points are also continuously reaching new highs. I've drawn an upward channel and found that the middle line of the channel has also formed support and resistance. I believe this aligns well with the market. Currently, I will only participate in the game near the upper and lower boundaries of the channel.
Here’s a sleep order, last night I was so tired that I didn’t really consider the logic behind it, just purely based on the win-loss ratio. If I hit the stop-loss, I’ll just drink one less milk tea. I only recommend a small bet for the sleep order.

$BTC My analysis of BTC yesterday was completely off, mainly because I’m too inexperienced and misjudged the trend of the ETC/BTC exchange rate. If I can’t understand it, it’s better not to act. When you’re afraid of missing out, you’re not far from a crash!

I’m very grateful that 20 more brothers have followed me. Just because I could catch a short position yesterday doesn’t mean I have high skill, and even if I can make money, it doesn’t mean that the brothers following me will also make money. I can’t post every time I operate, and even if I do, you may not see it in time.

CPI data is really critical, be sure to set your stop-loss when entering the market for the game today!!!

The US stock market is about to open, sharing two lines I just drew in advance, but there are a few points to note:
1. The RSI for Bitcoin at 8:30 AM on the 15-minute chart is already at 9, which is severely oversold, but as of 9:00 AM, the first divergence has not yet appeared.
2. The trading volume for Ethereum has increased, but the price has not moved up.
3. Do not open long positions while facing a large bearish candle!! Similarly, do not open short positions while facing a large bullish candle!!!
4. Regarding support and resistance, support and resistance are areas, and it is normal to have some spikes.
5. Those who have studied these lines a bit know this; do you think the big players know?

Finally, I am already tired tonight, and at times like this, I choose to sleep. I may not be able to reply to comments. Poor mental state often leads to decision-making issues, regardless of whether the market is significant; anyway, I already took a bite this morning.
$BTC $ETH

This article does not analyze the market; if you are purely interested in trading techniques, you can take a look.

First, reflect on my own entry position. The 4-hour level is too large; a 100-point fluctuation on the K-line is normal. The entry was too aggressive, and I cannot open a position like that next time! An overly aggressive entry often requires a larger stop loss to avoid being swept out during a secondary spike.

Secondly, let me explain why it is important to learn. Why do some experienced traders still lose money after reading my articles? Because they only see that what I said seems reasonable and follow in on the floating profit, only to have it pulled back directly, resulting in stop loss being hit or even liquidation during a secondary spike. Lastly, let’s take a look at the entry position of #颜驰Bit Chi Ge, which broke below the trend line, entered on the right side of a smaller timeframe, and the stop loss is easy to manage, placed at the previous high, making it more reassuring to hold.

#ETH突破4300
$ETH

Because the short position from the last post had a lucky floating profit, and about ten old brothers have started to pay attention to me, I want to write down some of my random thoughts. Let me clarify in advance, this article does not contain any analysis of the market.

First, I am not a great person; my initial intention in posting on the forum was simply to force myself to have logic when opening positions.

Second, my skills are quite poor, but many people on the forum are even worse than me. Do not follow the articles you randomly refresh on the forum to open positions, and do not spend money looking for teachers who provide signals; the posts they publish can be deleted or modified!!! I recommend two teachers I follow: #颜驰Bit #Nuts坚果 , both of whom have live broadcasts and share free insights.

Third, I am very afraid that someone will read my article and end up losing money, regardless of the outcome of this position. In the future, I will only post the indicators I see, and I will no longer provide long or short suggestions; this will also be the last time I attach any open positions I have. If you do not understand the indicators and content I post, I hope you can allocate some of the time you spend scrolling through the forum to learn how to trade.

$ETH The opportunity for speculation has emerged, and there are many bearish arguments here; just set your stop loss and go for it.

4-hour candlestick chart
1. From a structural perspective, a double top may form.
2. In terms of trading volume, there is a decrease compared to before.
3. Looking at the MACD, it has already converged, and if the fast line goes down, it will result in a death cross.
4. The RSI is in the overbought zone, and although the price has made a new high, the RSI did not make a new high, indicating RSI divergence.

$BTC Right now, absolutely do not short, absolutely do not short, absolutely do not short! The 15-minute candlestick does show a slight reversal, but entering based solely on that should have resulted in three losses already; consecutive losses can affect your mindset. If you get stopped out again near 123000, can you maintain a normal trading mindset?

ETH I have leveraged quite heavily, but I haven't opened many positions; the actual leverage is less than 5. Everyone must manage their positions well and set proper stop losses!

Many friends may not understand the current short-term market at all. In fact, I have been mentioning the ETH/BTC exchange rate since my second post. If you look at the trend of the exchange rate, you will find the answer. I used to not believe that exchange rates also have support and resistance, but the facts have forced me to believe.

The exchange rate also has contracts, but it's not in USDT; it should be in BTC. Friends who understand can comment, thank you!

$BTC $ETH #ETH走势分析

I didn't expect that the market on weekends during the day would be busier than on weekdays during the day. I only took a little profit from the short position on SOL before exiting, and it seems like someone followed me in. Actually, the time I posted the message was already not suitable for entering; I feel quite sorry for that person. In the future, I will just post the charts directly.

$BTC Chart 1, short-term resistance around 117600, seen in the purple box, which coincides with a major descending channel line. If the price reaches here with some pin bar behavior, the betting opportunity is quite good.

$SOL I wouldn't recommend entering now, especially since it just broke through the noon high point, and ETH has also broken out. However, let me explain the logic behind the noon trade. Chart 2, 4-hour candlestick chart, with the horizontal resistance formed by the previous two highs for defense, adding a bit more stop loss; there is still some downward space.

$ETH I hadn't finished writing when the market turned. It just broke through the resistance of 4200. If it can hold above 4200 after the 6 o'clock close and return to around 4200, I'm ready to enter a small position long, with the stop loss set below the trend line. Still, here's the chart, Chart 3, 5-minute candlestick chart.

I didn't have much desire to watch the market on Saturday morning. I didn't expect $ETH to rise directly to 4200. The short trading plan I had at 4100 last night no longer needs to be executed. If it gradually drops to around 4100, I plan to make a long trade. The daily resistance level has turned into support, and the eth/btc exchange rate still has some distance to the next resistance, which also supports another rise in the second coin.

$SOL got stuck in a short intraday position, and it's almost at the highest point again. Perhaps I might be more suited for sol. After looking around, this thing has a relatively good stop-loss. If there’s a pullback, the risk-reward ratio is very nice, plus the big coin is still moving weakly within a descending channel, which also supports a short-term pullback.

$BTC held onto a short position for a day but closed it, after all, Ethereum is preparing for a long position. Moreover, we can see that the trend line support below is still effective. If there are better positions or a break of the trend line later, it’s still possible to enter.

$ETH According to the plan, after the price reached around 3890 in the morning, I pushed the stop-loss for the short position and took a little profit, but in the evening I still got stopped out. I didn't chase the long position after the breakthrough at 3970, because I still hold the short position for $BTC , and I don't want to hold positions in both directions at the same time.

In the afternoon, I noticed a very interesting situation: the ETH/BTC exchange rate and the movement of the second coin (二饼) are almost identical. In the evening, when the second coin surged, the first coin (大饼) didn't move. Friends who haven't paid attention to the exchange rate may also feel this.

The trading plan is more important than the trading itself. If the second coin approaches 4100, I may consider shorting again.
#eth突破4000 #ETH巨鲸增持

After waking up from a nap at $ETH , I found that the big pancake is still floating profitably, while the second pancake has been swept away, which can be considered a certain degree of meeting expectations. Here, I slightly got carried away and entered a short position again, following the same logic as this morning's, with a big structure of double tops and a small structure of secondary pin insertion. The position I entered here is even smaller than the small position from this morning; I can't let my position management get out of control! If I lose again, I might only consider entering a short position when observing volume and structure at 4100. Ensuring that I lose less when I do lose in trading is also a significant improvement!

If it can reach around 3890, I will directly push for a breakeven stop, depending on the situation to balance a bit. Since I started posting, every time I post a loss, I take a trade; I wonder if I can turn my luck around.

$BTC Woke up early to see BTC reach the target price range. At 7 o'clock, I waited for a 15-minute candlestick reversal and took a small short position.
$ETH I didn't dare to enter in the morning; the logic can be seen in the picture. Now I’ve also taken a small short position, based on the logic of betting on a larger double top structure combined with a smaller structure's second pin insertion.
$SOL The trendline logic has become invalid, so I won't be watching for now.

Since I opened the position in the morning, I've been editing for a long time, deleting and writing. I've waited too long, which shows that my judgment on the market is still not very clear. Recently, I feel like I've been watching the market too much and not learning much. I set a good stop loss and took a nap, then woke up to read. Attached is an article I didn’t have time to post before the market changed.

$ETH Today, a large number of short positions were liquidated, accompanied by a continuous rise in funding rates. The price also reached a significant resistance level in this market phase, and the 200-point increase had no pullback. In the video by teacher #颜驰Bit , it was mentioned that this trading method can make retail investors feel FOMO; when you want to buy, the price keeps rising, so when it drops, you need to consider if it's a trap.

$ETH 's trend tends to favor plundering before reversing. If you are monitoring the market, waiting for a volume breakout above 3865 and a quick drop back to form a pin bar is an excellent opportunity to enter a short position.

$SOL took a short position along the trend line, and luckily, I hit a good entry point. I set my stop loss to break even and went to sleep.

This is my first post; I hope I won't be proven wrong.