王建波论趋势

What has Xiaopu been doing in the past 24 hours? Which of these have an impact on the cryptocurrency market! #美国5月核心PCE物价指数 $BTC

Tracking of the Middle East situation on June 29th #币安Alpha上新 $BTC

Everyone pay attention to the risks, Lao Wang expects 2-4 days, most likely on Monday or Tuesday, something big is about to happen!
After a week of sideways movement, the next is a market above 5000 points, make sure to set stop-loss when opening positions soon! #美国加征关税 $BTC

This wave of BTC surge is not a bull market, but a conspiracy!
You think that when Bitcoin breaks the new high of 110,000, it's just the beginning of a bull market; in fact, this is the United States resolving the harvesting war on U.S. debt on-chain. Before June 30, the U.S. will begin repaying 6 trillion in U.S. debt. The process of finding a buyer for U.S. debt, including the rise of BTC and the start of the tariff war, is all about seeking a buyer for U.S. debt. So who used to buy U.S. debt? It was bought by institutions and countries, but now institutions and countries are no longer buying because U.S. debt is facing a risk of collapse. Not only is no one buying, but many countries are starting to sell U.S. debt. If institutions are not buying, then individuals have to buy, but why would individuals buy?
Only if there is profit to be made will someone buy; thus, in the cryptocurrency circle, BTC begins to rise all the way, breaking previous highs, creating wealth effects, and retail investors rush in. In fact, it's just helping the Americans to offload their U.S. debt.
Recently, you can see that the stablecoin bill passed by the U.S. looks compliant on the surface, stabilizing the market.
In reality, it is using BTC and USD to allow the U.S. Treasury to buy U.S. debt, extending the life of the dollar hegemony. The new bill states that any compliant stablecoin, such as USDC, must have 100% of U.S. dollars or U.S. Treasury bonds as reserves.
In other words, if you want to buy a one-dollar stablecoin, the issuer must take one dollar to buy U.S. debt, or put it in a dollar account.
If you carefully analyze this logic, you will find that the more people there are in stablecoins, the more buyers there are for U.S. debt. This is not regulation; this is an on-chain version of an automatic distribution system for U.S. debt!
So, don't think this is a bull market, and don't think that issuing USDT is just for buying coins; the core issue is to resolve U.S. debt.

The Bitcoin holdings of #美国加征关税 $BTC CEX have now dropped to 2.05 million coins. A quantitative change will eventually lead to a qualitative change; at this rate, the holdings will likely fall below 2 million within a month, which is crucial. Once a major market movement occurs, it will trigger a Bitcoin shortage! Currently, the market is experiencing narrow fluctuations. From the liquidation map, the long and short liquidation points are around $105,600 and $108,700 respectively. The fluctuations are too small, and in the short term, they are also affected by news. We should patiently wait for a reversal opportunity; next week is critical!

Weekend market remains in range oscillation, Big Pie Auntie Old Wang suggests a short position of one hand. #美国加征关税 $BTC

CoinAnk data shows that according to the latest on-chain data, Bitcoin long-term holders have achieved a record net increase of 800,000 BTC in the past 30 days, a scale far exceeding the historical average. Similar scales of monthly accumulation have only occurred six times before, including mid-2021 and late 2024, and were accompanied by significant subsequent price uptrends. Currently, the cost range for long-term holders is concentrated between $95,000 and $107,000, while the average cost for short-term holders is about $93,000. At the same time, the proportion of long-term holders has risen to 68% of the total circulating supply, and early miner groups have shown a strong reluctance to sell, having sold only a minimal amount of BTC this year, highlighting the tightening situation on the market supply side.

This accumulation behavior reflects the firm confidence of long-term investors in BTC as a store of value asset. Historical patterns show that similar scales of accumulation often indicate turning points in price cycles, possibly stemming from an imbalance in market supply and demand and the strengthening of investor psychological expectations. The holding cost range can serve as a key support level; when prices approach this level, reduced selling pressure may help boost upward trends. In terms of the impact on the crypto market, especially BTC, the accumulation has reduced circulating supply, combined with the reluctance to sell, which may exacerbate scarcity and drive prices to break historical highs; however, if the macro environment deteriorates or the cost pressure on short-term holders increases, the market may experience volatility. Overall, the structure dominated by long-term holders helps stabilize the market and supports the continuation of a bull market.#美国5月核心PCE物价指数 $BTC

Old Wang's market outlook has once again emerged in the evening. After the volatile market ended, there was a brief upward pull of a hundred points, followed by a direct decline, gaining a space of 300 points #加密市场回调 $BTC

【Corporate credit spreads have narrowed again compared to the same period last year, and BTC's performance may continue to improve】
Earlier this week, influenced by the U.S. military's airstrikes on Iran, BTC briefly tested its 21-week moving average (98,532 USD). This level serves as a critical technical support and is often regarded as the dividing line between bullish and bearish trends. BTC is currently undergoing seasonal volatility and consolidation, and the Federal Reserve's dovish tone may provide mild upward support for prices.

There are signs that corporate credit spreads have narrowed again compared to the same period last year—this signal is historically seen as bullish. A narrowing credit spread typically reflects an improvement in economic fundamentals, and in such an environment, the macroeconomy and BTC's performance often align positively. This dynamic also indicates that although current data may not be sufficient to prompt the Federal Reserve to take immediate action, political pressure could still drive adjustments to its monetary policy stance. #鲍威尔半年度货币政策证词 $BTC

The Federal Reserve's stance shifts from hawkish to dovish, with potential policy adjustments in September

Despite Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's relatively hawkish remarks at the FOMC meeting on June 18, 2025, the overall wording of the Federal Reserve has significantly shifted towards a more moderate tone. After the June meeting, President Trump publicly criticized the Federal Reserve's policy stance, and several Federal Reserve officials have signaled dovish attitudes in their public statements. Powell himself adopted a more conciliatory tone during his appearance at a congressional hearing this week.

Currently, the rationale for the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates unchanged is becoming increasingly difficult to justify, as the inflation level has fallen to 2.38%, not far from the 2.0% target. Last Friday, Federal Reserve Governor Waller was the first to suggest that the July FOMC meeting might consider a rate cut; subsequently, on Monday, Governor Bowman expressed a similar view. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee further downplayed the inflation impact of tariffs, reinforcing market expectations for a dovish shift from the Federal Reserve.

Although Powell and several economists previously warned that tariffs could cause inflation to exceed 3% again, this scenario has not materialized. Current inflation remains stable, and the unemployment rate has held steady at 4.2% for nearly a year, contrary to market expectations of a softening job market. Powell did not refute the recent more dovish statements. He indicated that if inflation remains moderate, the timing of a rate cut could be moved up. Although the possibility of a rate cut in July remains low, the Federal Reserve may signal a potential policy adjustment in September during the meeting on July 30. #下一任美联储主席人选 $BTC

Little Puzi, you purely manipulate the market, right? Do as you please? #鲍威尔半年度货币政策证词 $BTC

Yesterday, the overall trend of Bitcoin was a downward fluctuation. Looking at the hourly chart, both the highs and lows are continually moving lower. After three consecutive bullish candles on the daily chart, it has begun to form a long upper shadow bearish candle. Today, it is highly likely to continue weakening and extend the downward trend. Therefore, our strategy for the day is clear: primarily focus on looking for high points to short. Pay attention to the support level at 106000 below and the resistance levels at 108200 and 108900 above.

Short in the range of 107500-107800, with targets at 106000 and 105500. #以色列伊朗冲突 $BTC

Good morning, Old Wang said early this morning that the bearish market trend has already started. Although the big coin has not yet reached the expected price level, the market is still continuing. We can continue to hold #以色列伊朗冲突 $BTC .

"The Wall Street Journal": CoreWeave Restarts Acquisition Negotiations with Bitcoin Miner Core Scientific. As a result of this news, the stock prices of several Bitcoin miners have risen.
Bitcoin analysts indicate that for BTC to break through $112,000, this must happen. The recovery of MVRV momentum, profitability, and on-chain activity could drive BTC past the next major barrier of $110,000, achieving price discovery #剥头皮策略 $BTC

Khamenei Speaks Out for the First Time After Ceasefire

In the wake of the ceasefire agreement that took effect earlier this week, Khamenei made his first comments, claiming victory in the war with Israel and stating that the U.S. intervention has been fruitless.

In a pre-recorded video speech, he stated: "The Islamic Republic of Iran has ultimately achieved victory and has given the 'mushroom' a resounding slap in the face," adding that the 'mushroom' has "gained nothing from this war."

These comments come at a time when Washington's assessment of the effectiveness of the 'mushroom' airstrikes has shown contradictions. Trump claimed that key nuclear facilities have been "leveled to the ground," a statement that contradicts the Pentagon's intelligence assessment.

Since Israel launched attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities and military targets, Khamenei has not appeared in public. Over the tumultuous 12 days, several Iranian military leaders and scientists were killed, and the 'mushroom' joined Israel in striking Iran's nuclear facilities, while Tehran targeted a 'mushroom' base located in Qatar.

Ultimately, Trump announced the ceasefire agreement on Tuesday, which has since been largely maintained, although early violations by both sides once threatened the execution of the agreement.

"If any acts of aggression occur, the enemy will pay a heavy price," Khamenei warned, indicating that Iran may strike U.S. military bases in the region again in the future.

In Tehran, lawmakers have been working to limit Iran's cooperation with the United Nations nuclear watchdog—the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Both the Iranian Parliament and the country's powerful Guardian Council have approved a bill aimed at suspending Tehran's cooperation with the IAEA.

Iranian officials have strongly condemned the IAEA for violating its own principles of neutrality and accused the agency of providing an excuse for Israel's attacks on Iran.

If the bill comes into effect—though it may still require further approval from the Supreme National Security Council—Iran will violate its agreement terms with the IAEA. Iran can only legally terminate its cooperation with the agency if it formally withdraws from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.

Since the conflict began, the IAEA has been unable to conduct verification in Iran and has stated that it needs to confirm the whereabouts of Tehran's enriched uranium stockpile.

Old Wang's winning streak has been interrupted, directly turning around to make a gong, targeting around 106000 near #以色列伊朗冲突 $BTC

The big pie must correct at a high position! Averaging down + short strategy, refuse to be trapped!

Don't be fooled by the current timidness of Bitcoin and Ethereum; once night falls, they will start correcting vigorously. Then, just short at the high positions as I said.
Remember to leave some room for averaging down; this is very important. If you don't leave room for averaging down and tell me you are trapped, directly shorting at high positions, what I can teach you is to have more funds on hand. Don't hesitate; if you hesitate and wait until it drops halfway to short, you can easily get trapped because the market is prone to big stop losses. So try not to set stop losses.

The midday analysis by Old Wang has already played out, currently gaining 500 points of space, but Old Wang suggests that long positions can continue to be held, with a target looking at 108500#香港加密概念股 $BTC

I don’t want to say much else, there are pictures as proof, and it's another multi-order Liansheng heading north for 500 miles. #香港加密概念股 $BTC followed Lao Wang's idea to earn a month's salary in one hour, while those who didn't follow can only watch the market slip away from their lips.

Lao Wang's ideas came true again and again last night. I don't know how many Lianshengs this is. Last night, he even controlled the points accurately and took a thousand points again! I wonder if my friends have eaten this free meat? The market changes rapidly. If the direction is wrong, the efforts will be in vain; if the direction is right, you will get twice the result with half the effort. We don't make excuses for failure, but only find ways to succeed. I wonder if my friends have found it? #加密市场反弹 $BTC