The Federal Reserve's stance shifts from hawkish to dovish, with potential policy adjustments in September

Despite Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's relatively hawkish remarks at the FOMC meeting on June 18, 2025, the overall wording of the Federal Reserve has significantly shifted towards a more moderate tone. After the June meeting, President Trump publicly criticized the Federal Reserve's policy stance, and several Federal Reserve officials have signaled dovish attitudes in their public statements. Powell himself adopted a more conciliatory tone during his appearance at a congressional hearing this week.

Currently, the rationale for the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates unchanged is becoming increasingly difficult to justify, as the inflation level has fallen to 2.38%, not far from the 2.0% target. Last Friday, Federal Reserve Governor Waller was the first to suggest that the July FOMC meeting might consider a rate cut; subsequently, on Monday, Governor Bowman expressed a similar view. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee further downplayed the inflation impact of tariffs, reinforcing market expectations for a dovish shift from the Federal Reserve.

Although Powell and several economists previously warned that tariffs could cause inflation to exceed 3% again, this scenario has not materialized. Current inflation remains stable, and the unemployment rate has held steady at 4.2% for nearly a year, contrary to market expectations of a softening job market. Powell did not refute the recent more dovish statements. He indicated that if inflation remains moderate, the timing of a rate cut could be moved up. Although the possibility of a rate cut in July remains low, the Federal Reserve may signal a potential policy adjustment in September during the meeting on July 30. #下一任美联储主席人选 $BTC