7.29 Technical Analysis:
BTC's market behavior yesterday accurately validated the research report's forecast, with effective resistance at 119.5K (peaking at 119.8K before retreating) and precise support at 117.5K holding firm in the early morning. Overall, the market has maintained a range-bound fluctuation between 120K and 116K. Currently, the market exhibits three key characteristics:
Decreased trading volume: Light trading activity and a strong sense of caution among investors, necessitating vigilance against the risk of a false breakout at 120K.
The daily chart has repeatedly tested 120K before retreating, with notable selling pressure; however, the support at 116K has been consistently defended, indicating strong bullish defense.
The prolonged period of sideways movement suggests that if the daily chart continues to close below the moving average from July 14 (with the current moving average support invalidated), caution is warranted against a 'failed breakout' scenario.
Key Support Strategy:
Short Opportunities: If resistance is encountered in the 119500—120500 range, consider shorting, but stop loss if there is a volume breakout above 121K;
Bullish Defense Line: 116K serves as a short-term dividing line between strength and weakness; a drop below 115K will trigger a bearish trend.
ETH Technical Analysis:
Yesterday's market behavior accurately validated the research report's forecast, with significant resistance at 3930 USD (actually peaking at 3940 USD) leading to a notable pullback, as prices phased through the 3850-3800 USD support zone. The current technical pattern shows key characteristics:
Daily Level: The early session tested the MA7 moving average support at 3740 and then quickly rebounded, indicating that short-term bulls still possess resistance momentum.
The MACD indicator shows signs of a potential top divergence, necessitating caution against trend reversal risks.
Key Price Ranges: Upper resistance zone: 3870-3940 USD
Core support zone: 3780-3720 USD (converging zone of daily MA7 and previous lows)
Trading Strategy Recommendations:
Short Opportunities: If prices rebound to the 3870-3940 resistance zone and show signs of stagnation, consider lightly positioning for a short trade, but a strict stop loss is required if there is a valid breakout above 3940 USD.
