狩诸待To

Greed is like a snake swallowing an elephant; my position died on the eve of a surge.

Earlier, I thought it was my ability after hitting the rhythm several times, not realizing that it was just a bit of luck. Once you let your guard down, the bad news will eventually come.

At the core of stock and cryptocurrency trading is the need to overcome human nature.

Whether trading stocks or cryptocurrencies, if you want to achieve stable profits, you must have your own stable trading system. Once it exceeds the stop-loss line, decisively cut losses; when profit expectations are reached, exit quickly and wait for the next opportunity.

The most important point is position management. Many small investors, including myself in the past, often like to go all-in, believing that the price is right and that they can get rich overnight. Little do they know that the 'whales' have human psychology firmly in their grasp. As soon as there is a sudden large fluctuation, you will quickly die in the darkness before dawn.

Overcoming human nature is very difficult. In the future, I will strictly follow the program to execute my strategy. Making money is about steady progress. Getting rich overnight and going broke overnight are both destructive to body and mind; being able to live healthily and long-term is the true victory.

Explanation of the fear and greed index.
A relatively stable buying point is when the index is below 25. If you have a strong risk tolerance, you can buy at a low position near this index. Generally, if it is below this index, it has already dropped quite a lot, and another significant drop is possible, but it is relatively controllable.

The ideal selling point is around an index of 75. Of course, this position requires patience, and the waiting period may be relatively long. Below this index, if the profit is considerable, or if the risk tolerance is low, it is recommended to take profit.

The US suddenly wields the tariff stick against Chinese goods, with some products' tax rates soaring to 245%! This means buying Chinese products will cost three times the price! iPhones and lithium batteries are all going up in price, and Tesla's Shanghai factory has stopped production. China retaliates with an 84% tariff on US agricultural products, and rare earth exports are also restricted. American military companies are in a panic. Apple lost $320 billion in market value in one day, equivalent to the value of 10 Xiaomi companies. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce reacted strongly: "This is playing with tariffs like toys! China won't take this; we will definitely retaliate when necessary!"

US stocks plummeted, with the Dow Jones index dropping 2200 points in one day, equivalent to an average loss of 10% per stock. Gold broke through $3300/ounce, and ordinary people have to spend 20% more to buy gold jewelry. Bitcoin surged by 20% before plummeting by 15%, like a roller coaster.

Due to Trump's tariff increases, small American businesses are frantically competing for Chinese cross-border e-commerce site Dunhuang.com, with download volumes surging by 940%, climbing to second place in the Apple Store (only behind ChatGPT). Trump is set to raise taxes again! This time targeting chips and pharmaceuticals, but his methods resemble a child throwing a tantrum.

China is frantically buying gold! In just half of April, they purchased 29 tons, and even those who borrowed to trade gold are getting involved.

Harbin offers a bounty for American spies! Names have been publicly disclosed, marking the first time such a bold operation has been conducted.

While Trump imposes a 20% tax on Mexican tomatoes, he is also considering tariff exemptions for auto parts, with car company owners complaining about 'tax bills skyrocketing sixfold.'

Recently, both the US dollar and the Chinese yuan have been quietly depreciating, while the euro is appreciating—this is not good news for Europe! Currently, the world is not lacking in goods; rather, there are too many goods that can't be sold, leading countries to engage in a 'tariff war', fearing that cheap foreign goods will crush their own markets. Currency appreciation = exports become expensive = unsellable goods. The recent actions between China and the US are essentially putting the EU on the hot seat, similar to how the US used the 'Plaza Accord' to force the yen to appreciate, directly collapsing Japan's export economy!

The US might crack down on Chinese companies listed in the US again, and Hong Kong is already gearing up to 'take over'. But the problem is, the US stock market is the richest in the world, while the Hong Kong stock market is like a poor mountain village—if Chinese concept stocks are forced back, their prices might collectively 'plummet', with only the Hong Kong Stock Exchange laughing all the way (its stock price surged 7% today).

The Trump administration just announced an exemption from tariffs on 100 billion dollars of Chinese goods (phones, computers, etc.), and stock investors are celebrating! Then it was reported that there was a 'misinterpretation', scaring the market... Finally confirmed: the exemption is real! But be careful, Trump's mood can change faster than turning a page; the good news might flip at any time!

The U.S. dollar index fell below 100, hitting a two-year low! The depreciation of the dollar can help the U.S. default and stimulate exports, but the yuan is depreciating even faster (down 4% against the euro in a week).

Gold prices soared to 3254 in three days, triggered by the trade war and dollar self-harm, with the world frantically buying gold! Institutions predict: 3300 will be breached soon, and it will rise before the end of the year! U.S. debt bigwigs are collectively 'voting with their feet', and gold becomes the king of safe havens!

The night before last, Bitcoin and US stocks both soared, almost leaving Trump’s supporters bankrupt! 'An old friend in the crypto circle recounted his panic: At 1 AM, Trump suddenly announced a delay in tax increases for allies, and the global market exploded. The Nasdaq surged 12% in an epic rise, while the crypto market skyrocketed by 14%. This old friend managed to recover $100,000 from the brink of liquidation before going to bed.

Behind this financial earthquake is Trump's 'tariff lightning war': The originally planned 84% punitive tariffs on the world suddenly granted a 90-day reprieve to other countries, with only China being put on the rack! The reason is that we had two hard countermeasures in a row, resulting in becoming the only 'nail household' subject to full tariffs. The international game has turned into a schoolyard fight—whoever strikes back gets hit; this move has pushed China into a one-on-one predicament.

[Trump's 'Sweet' Tariff Drama Series]
Act One: White House Online Slaps in the Face (April 7th)
White House Pounded Its Chest: 'Suspending Tariffs? Absolutely Not! It's All Fake News!'
Onlookers: 'Got it, I'm going to buy the dip.'
Act Two: Trump Goes Wild Late at Night (April 9th)
Trump Tweets: 'Folks! If you don't buy stocks now, you're a fool!'
Investor: 'Didn't you say last week that tariffs are a blessing?'
Act Three: 13 Hours of Sudden Reversal (April 10th, Early Morning)
Trump Suddenly Withdraws 'Reciprocal Strikes' Against 75 Countries Worldwide, Emotionally Declares: 'This Pause for 90 Days is All Because I Love Negotiating!'

A major earthquake in the global market! Trump’s crazy move is back.

These past few days, the global market has been more thrilling than a roller coaster! Trump suddenly wielded the 'reciprocal tariff' hammer, announcing new tariffs on April 9, and made a strong statement of 'no exemptions'! U.S. stocks instantly performed a high dive: Apple lost 5.7 trillion in four days, tech giants like Tesla and Amazon collectively crashed, Nasdaq soared 8% in intraday trading before plummeting to close, and Wall Street investors were left crying in the restroom. International oil prices also collapsed, falling back to levels three years ago!

Canada is infuriated, retaliating against U.S. cars with a 25% tariff, and even the United Nations can't stand it: 'Trade wars have only losers!' But Trump is stubborn, insisting on a hard stance against China, threatening 'if we don't back down in a day, we will add another 50% tariff', which resulted in a strong rebuke from China, and the trade war is on the verge of escalating to a 'mutual blacklist' mode.

1. The China-U.S. trade war has escalated to a 'nuclear explosion' level, and the global market has collapsed.
The U.S. suddenly imposes 'reciprocal tariffs' on all countries, not sparing even allies, and China immediately retaliates with a 34% tariff + restrictions on rare earth exports. Global stock markets are in shock: the U.S. stock market evaporated nearly $6 trillion in two days (equivalent to losing 3 Apple Inc.). The A-shares were even worse, with the ChiNext index plummeting 12.5% in one day, setting a record for the worst in history. Ordinary people feel: imported goods will rise in price, and export companies are under immense pressure.
2. China takes action to stabilize the economy: money needs to be 'released', foreign investment should not panic.
The central bank has announced: reserve requirement cuts and interest rate cuts are ready, and can be released at any time for emergency relief! It also reassures companies like Tesla: 'Don't worry, China is still a treasure trove for making money.' Local government debt is being issued at a frenzy of 2.8 trillion, and more is expected in the second quarter, with infrastructure investment going full throttle. Ordinary people's connection: mortgage pressure may ease, but will prices rise?

The recent cryptocurrency market is truly terrifying!
Bitcoin has recently been like a roller coaster, with buyers and sellers locked in a stalemate, the price oscillating between $83,000 and $88,000, making people dizzy. Although in the long term, some say Trump might implement Bitcoin reserves, the Federal Reserve might lower interest rates, and even predict it could rise to $1 million in ten years, but at the moment, ordinary people simply don't dare to take random actions.

Ethereum is in worse shape, originally about to upgrade (Prague upgrade), but a big holder crazily sold off, causing the price to directly drop below $1800, even the technical analysts are shouting 'can't hold on anymore'. In this market, when the big holders run away, the small investors can only tremble along — for instance, one big holder sold $200 million worth of Solana in a day, scaring other small coins to drop as well.

It was already in a continuous decline every day, and now it's worse, the understanding king is messing things up, and the stock market has also crashed big time, everyone is struggling! The lighthouse country has long started to become a moldy oil lamp.

Hunting for the greed and fear index
Index range: 0-100
Consider increasing positions: 20, terrible market, appropriately lower entry points.
Consider reducing positions: 55, terrible market, appropriately lower expectations.
Maximum position for each coin: 5%
Slow and steady, positions are there, opportunities are here!

Here is the situation of air coins today!

Today the index continues to be presented. It has indeed dropped significantly in the past few days, and the backtesting feature is still being developed rapidly!
To accommodate new friends, I will explain what I am doing. Old friends can jump to the end to see the data!

To cope with various shortcomings of human nature, I recently created an index similar to BTC's greed and fear index. As an ordinary investor navigating the altcoin market, controlling emotions and avoiding excessive enthusiasm is fundamental to not being liquidated. The principle remains the same: with positions in place, buy low and sell high—everyone understands the saying 'when others are fearful, I am greedy,' but executing it is as difficult as climbing to the sky.

I promised daily updates, but unfortunately, the weather has been unpredictable, and I had to return home to mourn a relative's passing, which caused a delay in updates for several days.

Upon opening the software, I noticed that these days, the air coin market has been extremely tragic! It's been a steep decline!

To accommodate new friends, let me briefly explain what I am doing. Old friends, feel free to jump to the end to see the data!

To cope with various flaws of human nature, I recently created a fear and greed index similar to BTC. As an ordinary investor navigating the air coin market, controlling emotions and avoiding excessive enthusiasm is the fundamental way to avoid liquidation. The principle of 'buy low, sell high' is understood by everyone, but executing it is as difficult as reaching the sky.

As an ordinary investor who has been struggling in the air coin market for a long time, controlling emotions and avoiding getting carried away is fundamental to not being liquidated. The principle is unchanging: with positions in place, buy low and sell high — everyone understands the principle of 'being greedy when others are fearful,' but executing it is often as difficult as climbing to the sky.

If there were a tool that could roughly indicate market sentiment, many things would become much easier.

According to public information, most greed-fear indices are synthesized from dimensions such as volatility, trading volume, social media popularity, market dominance, and search trends (different models have slightly different emphases). For example, in the version I reference daily, when the index is below 25, the system prompts 'bottom area,' and above 75, it shows 'top area.' This quantification method provides me, a 'visual observer,' with an auxiliary tool, which at least helps avoid panic selling after three consecutive days of decline or chasing high prices after three consecutive days of surge.