石洪磊

1. Short-term Trading Direction

◦ Bearish Strategy:

▪ Short positions can be initiated on a rebound to the $104,000-$104,500 range, with a stop loss set at $105,500 and a target of $102,000-$101,000.

▪ If it breaks below the support at $102,300, it is possible to follow the trend and short, targeting the psychological level of $100,000.

◦ Bullish Opportunity:

▪ A short-term oversold condition may trigger a rebound. Watch for stabilization signals in the $101,000-$101,500 range, with a stop loss set at $100,500 and a target of $103,500-$104,000.

$BTC 1. Bearish Dominance Pattern

◦ Bitcoin has continued to decline after failing to break through the resistance level of $106,500. Overall, the technical indicators are weak, with the MACD showing a death cross and the RSI indicating bearish signals. A short-term continuation of oscillation downward is possible.

◦ The 4-hour chart has repeatedly broken below the EMA trend line, and the lower Bollinger Band has been breached. Bearish momentum has not yet exhausted, and further declines to the $100,000 level should be monitored.

2. On-chain and Capital Movements

◦ The number of open contracts has decreased, indicating a market clearing out the chasing longs. Short-term liquidation pressure has eased, but whale addresses have recently withdrawn a large amount of funds (such as 1,303 BTC transferred from Deribit), which may exacerbate liquidity fluctuations.

◦ Long-term holders maintain stable positions, with institutional buying support below $100,000. The long-term fundamentals remain solid (supply tightening post-halving).

#波段交易策略 1. Position Control

◦ Single trade stop loss should not exceed 1%-2% of account funds, single product position should not exceed 30%.

◦ Avoid full position operations, diversify holdings to reduce risk.

2. Stop Loss and Take Profit

◦ Stop loss setting: exit when breaking key support (such as trend lines, moving averages) or pattern neckline.

◦ Take profit strategy: target price (such as pattern height), technical indicator reversal signals (such as MACD divergence).

3. Common Pitfalls to Avoid

◦ Overtrading: wait for high win rate signals, reduce ineffective operations.

◦ Ignoring review: record the logic and results of each trade, optimize strategy parameters.

#X超级应用转型 1. Diversification of Revenue

◦ Advertising revenue has not yet recovered to pre-acquisition levels (expected to be $2.3 billion in 2025, down from $4.1 billion in 2022💰), and financial services will become the new growth engine.

2. Increased User Stickiness

◦ Attracting young users through a “social + financial + consumption” closed loop to reduce the need for platform switching. For example, users can directly use X Money to pay for meals, tip creators, or make investments.

3. Data Value Mining

◦ Combining social behaviors and financial data to optimize advertising placement and AI model training, forming a commercial ecological barrier.

#加密概念美股 • Marathon Digital (MARA)

◦ Mining leader: The world's largest Bitcoin mining company, holding 45,659 BTC (worth $4.7 billion), with a single mining cost of only $52,000, leading industry efficiency.

• Riot Platforms (RIOT)

◦ Capacity expansion: Focused on advanced mining machines investment, but financial costs are high (depreciation and amortization expenses reached $246.5 million in 2023), stock performance weaker than peers.

• CleanSpark (CLSK)

◦ Green mining: 100% use of renewable energy, optimized operating costs, monthly increase of 18.73%, favored by ESG investors.

$USDC The U.S. Senate passed the "GENIUS Act" on June 17, requiring that stablecoin reserves must be 100% backed by cash or short-term government bonds, and implementing tiered regulation (with market capitalization over $10 billion directly regulated by the Federal Reserve). USDC has become a compliance benchmark due to its existing reserve structure (99.5% in U.S. government bonds and cash) and the transparency of monthly public audits. After the bill is enacted, USDC will attract more funds from traditional financial institutions, further expanding its market share.

• Ethereum chain operation: On June 18, USDC Treasury minted 50 million USDC on Ethereum and transferred it to Coinbase exchange, showing the market's demand for USDC liquidity.

• Solana chain expansion: On June 19, 250 million USDC were newly minted on the Solana chain, further consolidating its position as a growth engine for USDC (the proportion of USDC minted on the Solana chain is significantly increased in 2025).

#GENIUS稳定币法案 • Senate Approval: On June 17, 2025, the Senate passed the bill with a vote of 68 to 30, marking the first time the United States has established federal regulations for stablecoins.

• Bipartisan Maneuvering: The initiative was primarily driven by the Republican Party, while some Democratic lawmakers opposed it due to concerns over insufficient consumer protection and conflicts of interest involving the Trump family (such as the Trump-associated USD1 stablecoin). However, the bill was ultimately passed with amendments to strengthen anti-money laundering and compliance provisions.

• Next Steps: The bill must be submitted to the Republican-controlled House of Representatives for review, and discrepancies with the House version of the STABLE Act (such as regulatory authority and rules for foreign issuers) need to be reconciled, before ultimately being signed into law by the President.

#我的交易风格 • 特点：复制专业交易员的操作，无需自主决策，适合新手或时间有限的用户。

• 核心策略：

◦ 筛选标准：优先选择年化收益＞30%、最大回撤＜20%、策略存活＞90天的交易员，避免跟单全仓高杠杆Meme币的策略。

◦ 资金管理：初始跟单建议投入100-500 USDT，观察2周后评估策略稳定性。

• 优势与风险：

◦ 优势：低门槛参与专业交易，分散风险（如多币种分散策略）。

◦ 风险：依赖交易员水平，需定期复盘并设置止损线（如亏损5-10%自动止损）。

$USDC • Circle Listing: June 5, 2025, Circle was listed on the New York Stock Exchange (stock code CRCL), with the stock price soaring 35% on its first day and increasing over 300% within 10 days, reaching a market capitalization of $29.7 billion.

• Integration with Traditional Finance: USDC has been approved as collateral for derivatives, connecting to the securities settlement system, reducing transaction cycles to seconds.

• Competitive Landscape: USDC's growth rate (40% annually) far exceeds that of USDT (10%), but USDT still dominates the market with a 70% market share.

#美联储FOMC会议 1. Policy Independence

Powell reiterated that Federal Reserve decisions are not influenced by political pressure, clearly responding to Trump's call for interest rate cuts with "no direct impact."

2. Economic Resilience

Despite facing trade frictions and a slowdown in global growth, the U.S. labor market remains strong (unemployment rate 4.2%), and Powell believes the current policy stance is "correct," with low costs for waiting.

3. Balance Sheet Reduction and Assets

The balance sheet reduction plan is nearing completion, but if accommodative policy is needed, the size of the balance sheet may be adjusted.

$INIT now just has the long positions almost blown out, it's starting to blow the short positions, be careful with the short positions. 😍

$BTC • Macroeconomic Liquidity Support:

◦ The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut (September probability 78%) and the weakness of the US dollar (index 97.7) provide upward momentum for risk assets.

◦ If the Federal Reserve begins a rate-cutting cycle and expands its balance sheet, the cryptocurrency market may see a "liquidity reconstruction," pushing BTC to target $115,000.

• Market Structure Evolution:

◦ Bitcoin's dominance slightly declines (currently 61.55%), and a trend of capital diversion to altcoins is beginning to emerge, but BTC remains the core engine of the bull market.

◦ Institutional and retail investor game: ETF funds continue to flow in (such as IBIT), while retail leverage decreases, and the market enters the "deep water" phase.

#越南加密政策 1. Ministry of Finance (MoF) - Actively Open

◦ Leading the process of legalizing crypto assets, establishing a cryptocurrency working group (since 2021), promoting a tax system (such as 0.1% transaction tax, generating an additional $800 million in annual revenue) and a licensing system for exchanges.

◦ Supporting enterprises in issuing virtual asset financing to promote production and commercial activities.

2. State Bank (SBV) - Conservative and Cautious

◦ Prohibiting payment functions: In 2017, it was clarified that cryptocurrencies are not legal payment instruments, only exploring pilot projects for Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) (2021-2025).

◦ Concerned about the impact of crypto assets on financial stability, restricting banks from engaging in related transactions.

3. State Securities Commission (SSC) - Risk Prevention

◦ Vigilant about tokenized securities (such as STOs, DeFi products), requiring compliance with information disclosure and anti-fraud standards of traditional financial markets.

$INIT just unexpectedly catches you off guard 😛

$INIT Regardless of whether your pancake or second pancake rises, I'm not rising anyway 🥳

$INIT You have to be patient, even the big players are scared when it rises.

$BTC • Institutional Capital Inflow:

◦ Bitcoin ETF: This week net inflow of $1.37 billion, BlackRock (IBIT) single-week inflow of $1.1159 billion, clear signals of institutional buying on dips.

◦ Large Transactions: A trader (AguilaTrades) opened a $200 million BTC long position, with a holding of 1,894 BTC.

• Policy and Macroeconomic Environment:

◦ Federal Reserve Expectations: The market is focused on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, and expectations of rate cuts and quantitative easing may drive capital inflows into the crypto space.

◦ Geopolitics: After the easing of tensions in the Middle East, BTC volatility has decreased, but potential risks remain.

◦ Policy Benefits: The Trump administration has included Bitcoin in the national strategic reserve, strengthening institutional confidence.

#特朗普比特币金库 • Stock Price Volatility: After the announcement, TMTG's stock price soared 18% in pre-market trading, but closed down 12% on the same day, with a cumulative decline of 31% for the year. The market questions its financial sustainability (revenue of only $820,000 in Q4 2024, with a loss of $32 million).

• Regulatory and Trust Crisis:

◦ Previously, TMTG denied the Financial Times report on a $3 billion financing plan, but the next day officially announced a similar plan, raising transparency concerns.

◦ The Trump family has been accused of using public power to empower private business interests, such as raising over $2 billion in market value through token issuance (with 90% of investors losing money), and the "public-private linkage" of White House policies and family business strategies.

• Technical Risks: If Bitcoin's price fluctuates significantly or if mNAV (the ratio of stock price to Bitcoin value) falls below 1.0, TMTG may face a balance sheet crisis. Additionally, the potential threat of quantum computing to crypto assets has also been mentioned (such as vulnerabilities in old wallets).

$ADA 1. Founder Fund Dispute

◦ Charles Hoskinson is accused of manipulating $619 million ADA through the "Genesis Key." He responded that the allegations are false and promised to release an audit report to clarify the flow of funds, emphasizing that no unclaimed ADA has been misappropriated.

2. Positive Policy Developments in Japan

◦ Japan's tax reforms and regulatory easing (such as lowering tax rates) are driving a surge in ADA trading, further strengthening market confidence due to Cardano's historical ties to Japan (with 90% of early investors coming from Japan).