石洪磊

#苹果放宽加密规则 1. 允许外部支付链接
苹果宣布允许开发者在应用内直接嵌入第三方支付链接，用户可绕过苹果内购系统（30%佣金）完成交易。例如，音乐平台Spotify已更新应用，用户订阅价格比苹果内购低20%。支付工具Stripe推出的“反苹果税”方案手续费仅为2.9%+30美分，大幅降低开发者成本。

2. NFT交易松绑但限制仍存

◦ 允许范围：用户可直接在应用内交易已上线的NFT（如OpenSea平台），无需通过苹果支付系统。

◦ 禁止行为：禁止应用内铸造NFT、发行新NFT项目（需仍使用苹果支付），且外部支付入口需弱化显示（按钮大小、风险提示等）。

3. 加密货币应用仍受严格限制

◦ 禁止通过任务奖励代币（如看广告、完成活动获取代币）。

◦ ICO（首次代币发行）和手机挖矿类应用仍被禁止上架。

#数字资产法案 1. International Legislative Trends and Typical Bills

1. United Kingdom: Establishing the Legal Status of Digital Assets
In 2024, the UK "Digital Assets (Personal Property etc.) Bill" will explicitly define cryptocurrencies, NFTs, and tokenized assets as personal property, granting them legal protection. This bill addresses ownership disputes of digital assets in scenarios such as fraud and inheritance, providing a legislative model for global asset digitization.

2. European Union: MiCA Bill Constructs a Comprehensive Regulatory Framework
The "Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation" (MiCA) covers the entire field of token issuance, stablecoins, and crypto services, requiring exchanges to report transactions of EU customers and introducing four major token classification standards (utility, security, payment, and others). Its core objective is to combat tax fraud while promoting compliant innovation.

3. Hong Kong: Licensing System and Anti-Money Laundering Framework
The Hong Kong Monetary Authority requires all cryptocurrency trading platforms to apply for licenses and strictly enforce anti-money laundering (AML) and counter-terrorism financing (CFT) regulations. This system balances market openness and risk control through tiered regulation (e.g., classifying stablecoins into value-based and non-value-based).

4. South Korea: Basic Laws and Business Compliance
South Korea plans to legislate to define cryptocurrencies as "digital assets," mandating exchanges to register with financial intelligence agencies and establish transaction monitoring systems. The bill particularly emphasizes preventing money laundering and requires platforms to report large transactions in real-time.

2. Current Status and Challenges of Digital Asset Legislation in China

1. Legal Positioning Disputes
China's "Civil Code" includes network virtual property within the scope of protection but does not clarify the legal attributes of digital assets. In judicial practice, courts have differing opinions on the property rights of cryptocurrencies, with some cases denying their protected status.

2. Legislative Recommendations

◦ Expanding the Interpretation of the Civil Code: Clarifying the legal status of network virtual property as objects of property rights.

◦ Formulating a "Digital Asset Protection Law": Distinguishing traditional virtual property from digital assets, categorizing and regulating rights confirmation, trading, inheritance, etc., to address legal gaps in bankruptcy liquidation and investment financing scenarios.

3. Technical Support and Regulatory Framework
It is necessary to establish supporting systems for digital asset registration, custody, taxation, etc., while strengthening cross-border flow supervision. Research suggests using blockchain technology to achieve on-chain tax settlement and exploring central bank digital currencies.

#稳定币日常支付 1. Cross-Border Payments and Remittances

◦ Low Cost and High Efficiency: Stablecoins enable real-time transactions (from a few seconds to a few minutes) through blockchain, with fees as low as $0.1, significantly lower than the $30-50 fees and several days processing time of traditional bank wire transfers. For example, workers from the Philippines can transfer money to their families back home using USDT, with fees only a few cents.

◦ Breaking Financial Blockades: Sanctioned regions (such as Iran) can bypass the SWIFT system and conduct international transactions directly with stablecoins.

2. E-Commerce and Retail Payments

◦ Increased Merchant Acceptance: Platforms like Shopify and European online stores have integrated USDC/USDT payments, reducing currency exchange costs (such as avoiding 2%-3% credit card fees).

◦ Expanded Consumer Choices: Users can shop on global e-commerce platforms using stablecoins without being limited by local payment tools or fluctuations in exchange rates.

3. Salary and Freelance Payments

◦ Instant Settlement: Businesses can automatically pay salaries through smart contracts (such as monthly payments), and freelancers can receive stablecoins like USDT instantly, avoiding delays in traditional settlements.

◦ Convenience in Cross-Border Employment: Multinational teams can pay salaries in stablecoins, reducing foreign exchange conversion steps and fees.

4. Travel and Daily Consumption

◦ Travel Payment Scenarios: Merchants in places like Dubai and Thailand accept USDT payments, allowing tourists to avoid credit card currency conversion fees.

◦ Trend Towards Cashlessness: In regions with high inflation (such as Argentina), stablecoins have become a daily payment tool replacing fiat currency.

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#空投防骗手册 Fake Official Website Phishing Attack

◦ Scheme: Forging Binance official website or partner project pages to induce users to input their wallet private keys or mnemonic phrases.

◦ Case: In 2024, a fake Binance Alpha points airdrop event used a similar domain name (e.g., binance-fake.com) to defraud users of their assets.

◦ Prevention:

▪ Manually enter the official website address, avoid clicking links in emails/SMS;

▪ Check the domain suffix (e.g., .com changes to .cn or .net should be immediately blacklisted);

▪ Only recognize Binance official blue V certified accounts and pinned links.

2. Authorization Theft Trap

◦ Scheme: Under the pretense of “authorization required to receive airdrop,” induce users to connect to malicious smart contracts, clearing their wallets with one click.

◦ Case: In 2025, a fraudulent project induced users to authorize through “airdrop tokens,” resulting in over $2 million in assets stolen.

◦ Prevention:

▪ Use revoke.cash to regularly check and revoke unnecessary authorizations;

▪ Test authorization with a small wallet while keeping large wallets offline;

▪ Be cautious of the “Approve” button, confirm the legality of the contract address.

3. Fake KYC Information Theft

◦ Scheme: Impersonating Binance customer service to request submission of ID cards, facial information, etc., for black market trading or extortion.

◦ Case: In 2024, a “compliant project” collected user KYC data and then absconded, leading to low-priced ID packages appearing on the black market.

◦ Prevention:

▪ Real KYC will never ask for private keys or mnemonic phrases;

▪ Complete KYC only on platforms like Binance, Coinbase, etc.;

▪ Add watermarks (e.g., “for XX project use only”) when submitting documents.

4. Fake Customer Service Private Message Scam

◦ Scheme: Claiming to be “Binance customer service” in private messages on Telegram, Discord, etc., requesting mnemonic phrases under the pretext of account issues.

◦ Case: In 2025, fake customer service falsely claimed that users needed to verify their identity to participate in an airdrop, stealing mnemonic phrases and transferring assets.

◦ Prevention:

▪ Real customer service will not request sensitive information via private message;

▪ Official contact information should only be obtained through the official website or in-app channels;

▪ If encountering suspicious private messages, verify in the community first.

5. High Yield Airdrop Trap

◦ Scheme: Promising “staking yields of 1000% annually” to attract users to deposit and then abscond with the funds.

◦ Case: In 2024, a fraudulent Binance partnership project lured users to stake with high returns.

#SEC推迟多个现货ETF审批 According to the SEC announcement from March to April 2025, the approval of the following cryptocurrency spot ETFs has been postponed:

1. Grayscale: Cardano (ADA) ETF, Dogecoin (DOGE) ETF.

2. Canary: XRP ETF, Solana (SOL) ETF, Litecoin (LTC) ETF.

3. VanEck: Solana ETF.

4. Bitwise: Dogecoin ETF.

5. Franklin Templeton: XRP ETF, Solana ETF.

6. Grayscale: Hedera (HBAR) ETF.

7. Fidelity: Ethereum (ETH) staking-related ETF terms.

The final approval deadline for these ETFs has been extended to October to November 2025, and some cases may be further delayed.

II. Core Reasons for the Delay

1. Regulatory Compliance Disputes

◦ Securities Classification: The SEC has doubts about the securities classification of tokens such as XRP and SOL. For example, although Ripple partially won the lawsuit against the SEC, the compliance of XRP with financial institutions still needs clarification.

◦ Market Manipulation Risks: Due to shallow trading depth and ease of manipulation by 'whales', Dogecoin is regarded by the SEC as a high-risk asset.

◦ Custody and Liquidity: The average daily trading volume of XRP is only 1/10 that of Bitcoin, and the custody plan for staking-related ETFs has not yet met regulatory requirements.

2. Policy and Personnel Transition Period

◦ New SEC Chairman Paul Atkins has not yet officially taken office (April 2025), and there is no unified regulatory stance on cryptocurrencies within the agency.

◦ Trump Administration Policy Tendencies: Although a 'Strategic Bitcoin Reserve' plan has been proposed, the stance on other tokens (such as XRP and SOL) remains vague, and the SEC needs to balance innovation and risk.

3. Market Environment and Historical Experience

◦ Price Volatility: From December 2024 to March 2025, the price of Ethereum fell by over 53%, and Bitcoin dropped to $79,000, with the total market capitalization shrinking by 8%.

◦ Bitcoin ETF Approval Precedents: Bitcoin ETFs have experienced a 3-year delay, and the SEC tends to extend the review period to observe market maturity.

#特朗普就职百日 1. Immigration Policy Intensifies Conflicts
On his first day in office, Trump signed an executive order to abolish "birthright citizenship" and planned to deport millions of illegal immigrants, but several measures were halted by courts due to constitutional controversies. Massive layoffs in federal agencies sparked protests, leading to over a thousand demonstrations across all 50 states within a hundred days.

2. Tariff Policy Impacts Economy
Tariffs imposed on global goods (with rates as high as 145% on Chinese products) resulted in supply chain disruptions and skyrocketing business costs. Economists predict that the effects of the tariffs will be felt in May, with low-income groups being the most affected. The S&P 500 index fell by 7.9% within a hundred days, marking the second-worst performance since Nixon's presidency.

3. Regression in Energy and Environmental Policy
Expansion of traditional energy extraction and the cancellation of electric vehicle subsidies have been criticized as "rolling back environmental progress." At the same time, cuts to federal spending through the "Department of Government Efficiency" sparked discontent among officials and the public.

Please ask the great god to answer, the prompt indicates that the leverage needs to be adjusted, what will happen if it is not adjusted?

$BTC 1. Key Indicator Analysis

◦ RSI: Current value 54.32, in the neutral to strong range, no overbought signal.

◦ MACD: DIF and DEA are above the zero axis with a golden cross, momentum bars continue to expand, bullish in the short term.

◦ Bollinger Bands: Opening is expanding, price is running along the upper band, volatility is increasing.

2. Operational Strategies

◦ Bullish: If it stabilizes above $95,000, can build positions in batches, target $96,500-$98,000, stop loss set at $93,500.

◦ Bearish: If it breaks below $94,500, can try shorting with light positions, target $93,000, stop loss at $95,300.

◦ Dollar-Cost Averaging Suggestion: Current price is still below the 200-day moving average ($96,200), can increase holdings during pullbacks to the $92,000-$93,000 range.

#空投操作全指南 1. Account Preparation

◦ Complete real-name authentication (KYC) and bind a compliant wallet (recommended Binance Web3 wallet).

◦ Ensure the wallet network is correct (e.g., Polygon POS, avoid mistakenly selecting BSC chain).

2. Task Execution Process

◦ Social Media Task: Follow Binance and the project party X account, complete retweet/comment (15 minutes verification required).

◦ Cross-chain Exchange:

1. Withdraw USDT from the Binance trading platform to the wallet (select Polygon chain).

2. Use DEX to exchange for target tokens (e.g., SWCH), paying 0.02-0.1 POL as Gas fee.

◦ Trading Task: Complete specified amount of trading in the Alpha section to accumulate points.

3. Reward Distribution

◦ Airdrop tokens are usually distributed directly to the spot wallet or Web3 wallet, network compatibility needs to be checked.

◦ Example: EPT airdrop will be distributed to the Alpha wallet on April 21, 2025, at 20:10.

#空投操作全指南 1. Account Preparation

◦ Complete identity verification (KYC) and bind a compliant wallet (recommended: Binance Web3 wallet).

◦ Ensure the wallet network is correct (e.g., Polygon POS, avoid mistakenly selecting BSC chain).

2. Task Execution Process

◦ Social Media Tasks: Follow Binance and the project's X account, complete retweets/comments (requires 15 minutes for verification).

◦ Cross-chain Exchange:

1. Withdraw USDT from the Binance trading platform to the wallet (select Polygon chain).

2. Use DEX to exchange for the target token (e.g., SWCH), paying 0.02-0.1 POL as Gas fee.

◦ Trading Tasks: Complete specified amount of trading in the Alpha section to accumulate points.

3. Reward Distribution

◦ Airdrop tokens are usually directly distributed to the spot wallet or Web3 wallet; check network compatibility.

◦ Example: EPT airdrop will be distributed to the Alpha wallet on April 21, 2025, at 20:10.

#阿布扎比稳定币 1. Regional Financial Innovation Benchmark

◦ This is the first fiat-backed stablecoin project in the Middle East jointly promoted by sovereign wealth funds and central banks, which may become a template for the digital transformation of Gulf countries.

◦ In coordination with the UAE Central Bank's 2023 launch of the 'Digital Dirham' strategy, it aims to enhance the national digital payment infrastructure.

2. Global Cryptocurrency Market Linkage

◦ After the issuance of the stablecoin, it may collaborate with platforms like Binance and Visa to expand cross-border payment scenarios, challenging the market shares of USDT and USDC.

◦ The Abu Dhabi sovereign fund ADQ previously invested $2 billion to acquire equity in Binance, and this collaboration may deepen its blockchain ecosystem layout.

3. Compliance and Risk Control Advantages

◦ Adhering to the UAE's 'Stablecoin Payment Token Service Regulations' (2024), algorithmic stablecoins are prohibited, allowing only fiat-backed models to reduce systemic risk.

◦ The UAE Central Bank requires stablecoin issuers to hold at least 20 million dirhams (approximately $5.4 million) in initial capital and to undergo qualification review by the FSRA (Financial Services Regulatory Authority).

#亚利桑那比特币储备 Three, Market Impact and Controversies

1. Limited Short-term Impact

◦ Symbolic Significance > Substantial Capital Inflow: The bill has not disclosed specific reserve sizes or fund allocation plans, making it difficult to change the fundamental supply and demand of Bitcoin in the short term.

◦ Policy Uncertainty: There are still variables before the governor's signature, and the progress of other states following suit is unknown.

2. Long-term Strategic Value

◦ Asset Diversification and Inflation Hedge: Supporters believe that Bitcoin can hedge against the risk of U.S. dollar depreciation, enhancing state fiscal resilience.

◦ Attracting the Crypto Industry: It may drive Arizona to become a blockchain innovation hub, attracting related businesses.

3. Controversial Issues

◦ Price Volatility Risk: Critics point out that the high volatility of Bitcoin may threaten the safety of public funds.

◦ Regulatory Gaps: The lack of a unified regulatory framework at the federal level may lead to compliance disputes.

Four, Other States and Federal Dynamics

#空投发现指南 1. 官方平台与活动中心

◦ 币安APP入口：移动端【信息】→【空投】或搜索栏直接访问，实时更新项目列表。

◦ Alpha板块：在币安主站或Web3钱包内查看Alpha项目，参与交易触发空投资格。

2. 社区与资讯追踪

◦ 社交媒体：关注币安官方X账号（@Binance）、中文社区（Telegram/WeChat），获取空投预告。

◦ 整合平台：使用AirDropAlert、CoinGecko的“Upcoming Airdrops”板块筛选高潜力项目。

3. 钱包与链上监控

◦ Web3钱包提示：币安Web3钱包自动推送兼容的空投任务（如Revox需连接钱包签名）。

◦ 区块链浏览器：通过Etherscan等工具监控代币合约地址，识别未公开的快照型空投。

4. 项目合作与生态联动

◦ Launchpad关联：参与币安Launchpad项目的早期用户可能获得后续空投资格。

◦ 跨链桥接：在BSC、Polygon等链上完成指定操作（如质押），触发多链空投。

#特朗普税改 1. Significant Corporate Tax Cuts

◦ 2017 Tax Reform: Reduced the federal corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%, making it one of the lowest rates among developed countries.

◦ New Trends in 2025: Plans to further reduce it to 15% and eliminate the principle of worldwide taxation, shifting to territorial taxation (taxing only profits earned within the U.S.) to attract overseas profits back. Currently, U.S. corporations have approximately $2.6 trillion in overseas profit reserves, and the tax rate adjustment may encourage some capital to return.

2. Simplification and Reduction of Personal Income Tax

◦ Tax Rate Adjustment: In 2017, the 7-tier progressive tax rate was simplified to three tiers of 10%, 22%, and 24%, with a higher starting point; in 2025, it is proposed to lower the tax rate for individuals with annual incomes under $200,000 to 10%, and even consider eliminating tips tax, overtime tax, etc.

◦ Estate Tax and Social Security Tax: Elimination of the estate tax and reduction of social security benefit tax to alleviate the burden on middle and high-income families.

3. Tariff Policy and Fiscal Balance

◦ Trump proposed to compensate for the fiscal gap caused by tax cuts through increased tariffs (such as reciprocal tariffs), but economists estimate that the average tariff rate would need to be raised to 69.9% to offset $2 trillion in income tax revenue, making practical feasibility extremely low.

◦ Tariff policy is linked to tax cuts, attempting to reconstruct the industrial policy framework of "tax cut incentives + penalties for relocation."

#XRPETF 1. Short-term Trends (2025)

◦ Technical Breakthrough: The current XRP price is fluctuating in the range of $2.1-$2.2. If it breaks above the 50-day moving average (approximately $2.13), it may challenge the $3 resistance level; if it falls below the $2 support, it could drop to $1.6.

◦ Expected ETF Capital Inflow: Based on Bitcoin ETF experiences, if ProShares XRP ETF attracts a similar scale of funds (such as $38 billion), it may drive the market cap of XRP higher. Standard Chartered Bank predicts that if the U.S. spot ETF is approved in Q3 2025, it could bring an additional $8 billion in funds within 12 months.

2. Medium to Long-term Outlook (2028-2030)

◦ Optimistic Forecast: Standard Chartered Bank believes that with the expansion of XRP in cross-border payment scenarios (such as Ripple’s ODL technology) and the push from ETF funds, XRP may rise to $12.5 by 2028, nearly a fivefold increase from the current price.

◦ Technical Driving Factors: The shard expansion of the XRP Ledger, upgrades to smart contract functions, and the implementation of DeFi/RWA (Real World Assets) applications may further solidify its position in the payment network.

$XRP 1. Short-term Price Momentum

◦ Current Price: The trading price of XRP is approximately $2.19, close to the 50-day moving average ($2.20). If it breaks through, it could impact the $2.75-$3.29 range.

◦ Technical Signals:

▪ The weekly level is attempting to break through the downward channel, with MACD showing a bullish short-term trend above the zero line, but RSI (52.21) indicates caution for overbought pullbacks.

▪ If it holds above $2.20, the next target is the psychological level of $3; if it drops below the support of $2.05, it may retrace to $1.90.

2. Capital and Position Dynamics

◦ Institutional Fund Inflows: The Teucrium leveraged XRP ETF (XXRP) has reached an AUM of $40 million in three weeks since its listing, reflecting increased institutional interest.

◦ Whale Accumulation: Addresses holding 1 million to 100 million XRP have recently increased their holdings by 260 million, and on-chain data shows centralization of key holdings.

#XRPETF XRPH11 was officially launched on April 25, 2025, on Brazil's B3 exchange, jointly introduced by Hashdex and Genial Investimentos, with assets under management (AUM) exceeding $40 million, becoming the world's first regulated XRP spot ETF.

◦ Design Highlights:

▪ 95% of assets are directly allocated to XRP spot, and 5% track the Nasdaq XRP index through futures contracts to achieve price stability.

▪ A physical redemption mechanism is adopted, allowing market makers to exchange XRP for fund shares, reserving an interface for DeFi liquidity integration.

▪ Fee advantages: management fee of 0.7% + custody fee of 0.1%, which is more than 30% lower than similar products in the United States, combined with Brazil's 15% capital gains tax benefits, attracting international capital.

$ETH • Technical Analysis:

◦ Key Support and Resistance: Short-term support is in the range of $1,750-$1,700; if it falls below, it may test $1,650. Resistance is focused on $1,850, and if broken, there is potential to challenge $1,900-$2,000.

◦ On-Chain Signals: Currently, ETH is in an oversold state (MVRV indicator at 0.8), with long-term holders accumulating chips densely in the range of $1,650-$1,850, limiting short-term pullback space.

2. Market Drivers

• Bitcoin Correlation Effect: Bitcoin stabilizing at the $95,000 level has warmed market sentiment, with ETH, as the second-largest cryptocurrency, benefiting in tandem.

• Institutional Capital Inflows: Institutions like Metalpha have recently accumulated 56,000 ETH (about $100 million), showing long-term confidence in the Ethereum ecosystem.

• Layer2 Ecosystem Explosion: The adoption rate of Layer2 solutions like Arbitrum and Optimism has increased, driving the demand for on-chain transactions for ETH, supporting its price.

#特朗普暂停新关税 1. Suspension of New Tariff Measures
On April 9, Trump announced a 90-day delay in the implementation of 'reciprocal tariffs' against 185 global trade partners, retaining only 10% of the baseline tariff but imposing an additional 125% tariff on Chinese goods. This move is ostensibly aimed at alleviating domestic economic pressure, but in reality, it attempts to pressure China into concessions through differentiated tariffs.

2. The Deep Logic of Policy Flip-Flops

◦ Domestic Economic Pressure: After the implementation of tariffs, U.S. Treasury yields soared (30-year Treasury yields increased by 60 basis points in one week), and the stock market plummeted (the S&P 500 index saw its largest single-day drop since 2008), forcing Trump's team to urgently adjust their strategy.

◦ Pressure from the Business Community: Companies like Tesla and Apple, which rely on the Chinese supply chain, suffered heavy losses due to supply chain disruptions, with Tesla's stock price dropping 15% in three days, resulting in a market capitalization loss of over $500 billion.

◦ Escalation of International Retaliation: China raised tariffs on U.S. goods to 84% and placed six U.S. companies on the 'Unreliable Entity List'; the European Union simultaneously imposed a 25% retaliatory tariff on the U.S., creating a tripartite game among China, the U.S., and Europe.