WSS BTC

Stablecoin Market Cap – The 'Oxygen Tank' for the BTC Pump

Observing the Stablecoin Market Cap chart, we see the two main players, USDT and USDC, continuously injecting more liquidity.

USDT surged from ~20 billion USD (early 2023) to nearly 100 billion currently.

USDC increased from ~10 billion to about 40 billion.

Meanwhile, DAI and FDUSD linger around a few billion, not significant enough to make an impact.

At the same time, BTC price (gold line) skyrocketed from 28k USD in mid-2024 to above 110k currently. This correlation is not coincidental: stablecoins are the 'oxygen tank' that provide margin and spot liquidity, helping the massive pump to have more sustained strength.

What I noticed

Capital growth rate: USDT and USDC set new benchmarks each month, indicating that institutional and retail capital flows into the crypto space are ongoing. When the stablecoin pool is large enough, BTC can easily continue to reach higher price levels.

Opportunities from DAI & FDUSD: Although small, DAI and FDUSD fluctuate around 3–5 billion USD; this is fertile ground for alt stablecoins or yield farming if you want to diversify liquidity.

Funding volatility: The higher the amount of stablecoins held on exchanges, the more room there is for the perp funding rate to fluctuate between long and short, creating short-term trade opportunities.

Personal strategy

- Persist with DCA BTC: I allocate capital to buy BTC weekly when stablecoin dominance >65% of total crypto capital.
- Capitalize on funding: go long on BTC perps when funding is deeply negative (excess long margin) and vice versa, based on stable liquidity.
- Monitor new stablecoins: watch FDUSD – if it exceeds 5 billion, consider opening additional layer-1 altcoin positions to ride the capital wave.

[Personal analysis, not investment advice.]

Whales are leaning towards BTC Long, SOL shows signs of short-term reversal

Data from Hyperliquid Whale Tracker shows total positions reaching 6.52 billion USD, evenly split between Long (3.25 billion) and Short (3.27 billion). However, the latest activity flow reveals a clear trend:

Whales are heavily buying BTC around the 111k area: opening a Long of 1.13 million USD at 111,113 and continuously adding orders of 1–4 million USD throughout the session. At the same time, they closed a BTC Short of 5.33 million USD at 111,039 – a sign of a short squeeze.

ETH is being polarized: whales just opened a Short of 1.02 million USD at 2,615 and immediately closed the Short at 2,616, while also opening scattered Long positions of nearly 1 million USD. This indicates they are “testing” the equilibrium level of ETH price before determining the next phase.

SOL is somewhat weaker: a large Long position of 5.55 million USD was just closed at 171.85, signaling that whales are taking profits or withdrawing margin at this price point. SOL may need a correction before regaining momentum.

Two indicators supporting the analysis above:

PnL polarization: total Long PnL is 236 million USD while Short PnL is negative 202 million USD – whales are profiting the most from the upward trend.

Funding fee: the Short side is paying 37.7 million USD in fees to the Long side, indicating that cash flow is leaning towards buying positions in the short term.

Personal strategy

For BTC, I prioritize setting Long around 111k, stop at 1%, and take profit at 2–3% when whales force a Short.

For ETH, I will stay out until whales close all Shorts or Longs repeat in a clear cycle.

For SOL, I might test a small Short if H1 closes below 170, then cover at 2–3% profit.

[Personal analysis, not investment advice.]

Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score – Not yet at the "historical peak", opportunity still awaits

MVRV Z-Score measures the gap between market price and average purchase price on-chain, helping to detect extreme profit/loss zones. History shows three times when Z-Score surged above 10 (peaks in 2013, 2017, 2021) followed by significant corrections. Currently, the Z-Score is around 2–3, meaning Bitcoin has not yet entered an overly profitable phase; on the contrary, there is still room for growth.

Three reasons to pay attention

Low average profit level: A Z-Score of 2–3 reflects that most holders are in profit but not too heated, reducing the pressure for massive profit-taking.

Comparing with the past: In previous bull runs, prices continued to explode after the Z-Score exceeded 2, rather than reversing immediately. The current outlook may repeat the scenario: early profits are a good time to increase positions.

New capital inflow: On-chain reports show that the number of UTXOs purchased from the bottom of 20–22k is still being held, with no significant profit-taking, implying confidence in the medium-term trend.

Personal strategy

Dollar-cost averaging: I continue to accumulate BTC weekly, not timing the bottom, taking advantage of the Z-Score not exceeding warning levels.

Spot hedging: With tech stocks, I increase hedging by going long on BTC, as the risks in the tech and crypto sectors are inversely correlated.

Do not rush to short BTC when Z-Score <5; wait until it reaches the 7–8 range before considering defensive measures.

In summary, Bitcoin has not given a "cycle peak" signal on-chain. The Z-Score range of 2–3 presents an opportunity to increase positions with tightly controlled risk. Only when Z-Score approaches the threshold of 8–10 will I begin to gradually reduce positions to preserve profits.

This article represents personal opinion, not investment advice.
$BTC

Memecoin morning of 22/5 – The 'trump' wave stands alone in a sea of red

Opening the derivatives table for the memecoin group today, the first impression is the scene of “red everywhere” except for TRUMP, the token dominating the spotlight with +9% price, futures volume booming at +117%, and OI +25%. Meanwhile, almost everyone else is retreating: MOODENG down −4.2%, vol −36.5%; PNUT −2.2%, vol −29.9%; SHIB −1.97%, vol −26.8%.

The specific developments show:

- TRUMP: a large influx of capital, funding +0.008%, meaning longs are willing to bear the costs. OI increases sharply indicating a strong defense of long positions. This could be a squeeze of previous shorts, or simply the only memecoin still trading actively while the overall market stagnates.

- DOGE remains the leader in liquidity (4.7 billion USD) but vol decreases nearly 8% and price loses −0.3%. OI +0.8% indicates traders are still holding positions, but buying momentum has weakened.

- FARTCOIN, POPCAT, WIF have slightly reduced vol and weakly increasing OI — a sign of capital withdrawal but not a complete exit yet.

- PEPE, 1000BONK, MOODENG, PNUT both vol and OI decrease together, indicating that both spot and futures have lost interest. This situation often leads to a liquidation wave when BTC or the overall market loses momentum.

Perspective and strategy

Currently, I am not buying new DOGE or PEPE due to low volume. With TRUMP, if the price holds above 14.1 and OI continues to rise along with stable funding, one might consider a long exploratory position with a 5% stop-loss. For the remaining group, I prioritize waiting for volume recovery signals (≥10%) before opening any long positions.

Shorting tired altcoins should be avoided when futures are liquidating margin. During this phase, maintaining positions and observing new capital flow signals is the most important thing.

[Note: Personal analysis, not investment advice.]

[20.5.2025] Long/Short Ratio 4h BTC – Consolidation wave before the 'G hour'

The 4h Long/Short ratio chart of BTC has recently shown two notable reversal phases in the past 5 days:

18/5, 11h00: Long had a maximum dominance, with a ratio reaching 53.4% against Short 46.6%. At this moment, buying pressure was intense, but shortly after, the price only fluctuated narrowly before reversing. This is a sign of a 'failed fomo' – traders rushed into Long without enough strength to push the price.

19/5, 19h00: Another wave of Long, but the number of Long accounts surged to nearly 0.95 – meaning 95% of people were holding Long. Most opened positions in the range of 105–106k, just before the drop to 102k.

Currently (20/5, early morning), both Long/Short volume and the number of Long/Short accounts are plummeting: Long is only 45%, while Short dominates at 55%. This movement indicates that those who hurried to 'buy the top' are now cutting losses, while Short regains advantage.

Psychological & Tactical Consequences
1. Clear bull trap
Two strong Longs on the ratio but unable to hold the price are a warning that small traders often lose when chasing short-term tops.
2. Short advantage
When Short dominates both volume and number of accounts, the market often experiences a deeper pullback. A scenario dropping to test the 100–101k range is very likely.
3. Personal strategy
Short probing: after 15 minutes of the 4h candle closing below 104k, I will go short, SL 1.2%, TP 3–4%.
Buy the dip: if the price approaches 100k and the 4h Long/Short ratio starts to rise back above 0.5, I will consider a small long, SL near the bottom.
Avoid FOMO: do not rush in when seeing a sudden increase in Long/Short volume – it is often a trap.

Money flow reverses after the brief Long race. At this point, one should not guess the bottom but closely monitor the ratio fluctuations and time the moment when Short 'runs out of leverage'.