PHILLY FED "SURPRISINGLY SPEAKS UP": IS THIS A SIGNAL THAT THE FED CAN'T CUT RATES YET? 💣📊
The latest data from the Philadelphia Fed shows that production is reviving, albeit weakly. The index reached -4.0, much better than the forecast of -11.3, indicating that business confidence is gradually returning.
📉 Summary:
- Previously: -26.4 (almost the lowest level in 5 years)
- This time: -4.0 → an improvement of 22 points in 1 month
- Many experts argue that this could be the reason the Fed delays rate cuts.
🧭 Market Impact:
- 10Y Treasury bonds slightly bounce back → investors are beginning to reprice the Fed's longer “hold rate” stance.
- USD remains stable – crypto has not been strongly affected but there are signs of slight capital outflows.
- Dow Jones & S&P500 maintain their recovery momentum, with a focus on green manufacturing and industrial stocks.
🧠 My Actions:
- Monitor June CPI → if it continues to be positive, the likelihood of the Fed cutting rates this year will be very slim.
- For BTC: maintain a warning level if DXY rises above 106 – selling pressure on crypto will come very quickly.
- For gold: not attractive to buy back, as the rate hike sentiment still lingers.
📌 Could this be a sneak attack from production data causing the Fed to continue tightening? Or just a short-term illusion before a recession? 🤔