Premium Content The U.S. GDP has turned negative, raising recession concerns and increasing the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will pause its monetary tightening. At the same time, key inflation indicators—like energy prices—are falling, creating a more favorable environment for risk assets.
Bitcoin dominance is at a cycle high, which often signals the potential for an upcoming altcoin season—provided the Fed shifts its stance. Markets have reacted relatively calmly to the negative data, suggesting much of it was already priced in.
The next key event is the FOMC meeting on May 7. If the Fed pauses quantitative tightening, it could open the door for altcoins to perform well for the first time in a long while. The necessary conditions for an altcoin season are beginning to take shape.
U.S. Labor Market Surprises: In April, 177,000 new nonfarm jobs were created (expectation: 130,000). A stronger labor market = less pressure for rapid rate cuts.
U.S. consumer sentiment also plunged in April: ➟ Conference Board Consumer Confidence dropped to just 86.0 ➟ Expectations were 87.7, previous month 93.9 Consumers are becoming more pessimistic ➟ Recession fears are growing.
For me this is bullish, because the FED has more pressure to cut the rate. However, if they won't decrease, there probably will be a big disappointing market.