Markets are pausing ahead of Jackson Hole, with Powell’s Friday speech likely to shape expectations around potential rate cuts. The CPI/PPI divergence (cooler CPI, hotter PPI) has kept equities range-bound. As typical for late August, liquidity remains thin, increasing the risk of erratic moves. Bond yields remain capped around 4.40%, while the Dollar Index is attempting to base near 98. The breakout on EUR/USD from a 15-year trendline points to slow dollar weakening — not a crash. ⸻ ₿ Crypto BTC • Local top confirmed at $124,570, invalidating the previous topping tail — now forming a double top structure. • Support: April trendline has broken. Price pierced $115K (current low at writing is $114,600). Next key zones: 112K, then major support at 108K–100K.
• ⚠️ A confirmed break of the April trendline could open the door to a deeper retracement toward $100K. ETH • Rejected last week at $4,795. • Trading today near $4,222. • Key support levels: $4,100, then $4,035, followed by $3,500, and the major zone around $3,150–3,035. • Watch $4,065–4,075 as the first meaningful support — a break may accelerate downside.
USDT.D • Spiked to 4.37% this morning before U.S. market open. • This bounce confirms early de-risking flows. The structure remains above the triple-bottom zone at 3.80%, which historically aligns with local BTC/ETH tops and an altcoin slowdown. ⸻ 📈 Equities • S&P 500 rejected at 6,449, closing Friday just below major upsloping resistance (trendline from Oct 2023). RSI continues to roll over. • NASDAQ pulled back from the top of its channel — watch QQQ 364 for confirmation of weakness. • Key resistance remains at 6,440–6,460.
• ⚠️ A reminder: trendline breaks without follow-through are unreliable — the risk of fakeouts remains elevated. ⸻ 💼 Portfolio Update 🔸 Longs (Total: 2.00%) • TIA: 1.00% at $1.75 (reloaded today after two rounds of profits) • ICP: 1.00% at $5.26 (reloaded after similar setup round profits taken)
🔻 Shorts (Total: 28.00%) • BTC: 19.00% at $118,000 (after partial take profit at $115K) • ETH: 8.00% at $3,881 • LINK: 1.00% at $26.20 (opened 17 Aug)
💵 Cash Available: 70.00% ⸻ 🔭 View Crypto is at pivotal levels. BTC/ETH have broken key trendlines, but confirmation is essential. The rise in USDT.D points to risk-off flows, supporting the short thesis. Still holding elevated cash to remain flexible. This week’s catalysts — retail earnings + Jackson Hole — may define the next trend. Short-term bias = cautious bearish on majors. Medium-term (Q4) remains open — confirmation needed before re-risking. ⸻
Institutional distribution is getting obvious — 7 of the last 9 sessions saw strong opens fade into red closes. Retail chases morning strength, institutions use it to unload. Insider selling is now at levels last seen before 2008 — that’s not noise.
S&P 500 daily still locked in a textbook bear flag after the post-MSFT/META reversal. Until we break above Thursday’s rejection level, odds still favor a downside resolution (~65–70%).
Mega-cap tech is at critical support lines (MSFT, NVDA, META). Breaks here = deeper correction risk. Earnings plays remain two-sided — avoid chasing verticals like SOUN/MP, and wait for setups to come to key support/resistance.
My view: Risk/reward is skewed to the downside short term. I’m keeping tactical BTC/ETH shorts active — same logic as equities: overextended, euphoric sentiment, technicals still bearish. Select longs (TIA, ICP) remain for balance and relative strength, but I’m 67% cash to stay flexible.
Patience > prediction. Let price confirm before pressing size.
• Tactical shorts on BTC (still holding my short 22% $AUM @ $118k) & ETH (4% $AUM @ $3,650) , both majors are overextended, sentiment euphoric, patterns still in bear-flag territory under resistance.
• Strategic longs on TIA (4% $AUM) & ICP (3% $AUM) , DCA’d during late-July flush into key levels, risk-defined swings showing relative strength.
S&P 500 is stalling, the reversal level from last Thursday , until we close above, the dominant bear flag stays valid. BTC’s $117K zone is the same “scene of the crime” from its last breakdown , either a springboard to $120–122K or rejection into a deeper pullback.
This is not confusion, it’s portfolio symmetry: Shorts catch the flush, longs keep me in the game if we base/reverse. Cash is still king🤴 : I’m 67% liquid.
Patience > prediction. I’m letting levels confirm before pressing size.
🧠 Crypto Outlook BTC remains technically overextended. We’re still near ATH levels, open interest is high, and funding rates remain stretched. On daily TF, the topping tail and mature bear flag are intact. A flush to $113–115K would be healthy and offer better R/R entries.
💡 My view: We’re tactically short BTC — this isn’t a long-term bearish call, just managing asymmetry. 🧊 Macro uncertainty + overpositioning = fade the euphoric long crowd. If proven wrong, I’ll flip fast. Risk > ego.
📊 Equities – Divergence Ahead? • S&P 500 at top of rising channel (~6400), RSI stretched. Needs a pullback. • Nasdaq is rangebound, semiconductors (SMH) failing breakout attempts. • Russell 2000 shows relative strength — money rotating into small caps?
🎭 Earnings Paradox Even double beats (IBM, TSLA, AAL) are getting sold off. Why? ➡️ Forward guidance is either weak or absent. Market is pricing future softness. Stay selective. This is a reaction-driven tape.
⚖️ Watchlist Highlights • PDD: Inverse H&S, neckline retest could be an opportunity • GOOGL: Looks strong post-earnings, could continue • Meme stocks like AEO are getting flows but trade with discipline
📉 Commodities Gold rejected from trendline, back inside wedge. Silver + Oil fading. Natural Gas = bounce or breakdown zone.
🧭 Conclusion Short-term: Caution warranted. Mid-term: High-probability pullback incoming in both crypto & equities. The setup screams “de-risking phase.” Stay tactical. Stay patient.
BTC hit $123K today, with USDT dominance at 4.22%, getting very close to the triple-bottom zone we’ve been tracking (historical bottoms in March 2024 and Jan 2025). A quick spike to or below 4% remains possible before a reversal. On the combined USDT+USDC dominance, the key support zone is 5.27% to 5.00%, with major trendline convergence—this adds confluence to the idea of a final BTC push towards $130–140K before a cycle reversal.
Meanwhile, alts remain stuck near their lows. This divergence between BTC and alts increases the risk of a harsh correction across the board once BTC retraces.
Stock indices are also overextended after the April 7 pivot/bottom. Institutional profit-taking seems imminent.
⸻
🧮 Macro Focus (July 15–18):
• Tuesday 15 – US Core CPI Expected at +0.3% MoM. If confirmed, it keeps annual core inflation around 3.0%.
Fed is likely to hold in July (95% probability). Markets will price in September instead.
• Wednesday 16 – Core PPI Still elevated producer prices would reinforce inflation stickiness → less room for rate cuts.
• Friday 18 – Consumer Sentiment & Inflation Expectations If sentiment is weak while expectations stay elevated, that’s typically risk-off for stocks and crypto.
⸻
🎯 My View: Markets are near macro + technical exhaustion. The confluence of BTC dominance, low alt engagement, and upcoming inflation data points to one last spike before a larger correction. We are prepared.
While global headlines focus on Trump’s tariff threats (letters were sent late Thursday), the real surprise came from bond markets: 10Y yields jumped, defying logic. Tariffs slow growth → yields should drop… yet they rise. That’s stress.
📉 Equities absorbed the hit: S&P mini futures dipped -40 pts, recovered half by Sunday. Traders now eye earnings and key tech levels.
⚠️ BTC remains capped below the major trendline ($113–115k). Until this breaks, it’s a supply wall. We keep our short hedge open.
📍This week: watch US CPI + jobless data, but all eyes on macro crosswinds, not just crypto.
🇺🇸 Trump unexpectedly announced new tariff letters late Thursday — just after market close, ahead of the long weekend. Timing was surgical: minimal short-term shock, but long-term implications remain.
📉 Futures reacted fast — S&P -40pts — but the goal seems clear: cool the market without crashing it. Expect media to downplay the news by Monday.
📌 S&P futures hit 6223.75, now pulling back just below the breakout zone. 📌 BTC hovering around 108–110K, still respecting short-term trendlines. 📌 USDT Dominance stuck mid-range: the battle is on.
👁️🗨️ We maintain our scenario: • A short bear market rally into mid-July, possibly pushing BTC back to 112–113K, maybe 115K. • Then real downside resumes, targeting 93K and 89K.
📊 Current Exposure (July 5): • Longs: 18.65% (large cap) • Short BTC: 11.25% • Cash: 70.10% – we’re liquid and patient.
⚠️ Our conviction remains high: risk/reward is skewed short for the coming weeks.
🧠 Stay tactical. Don’t chase. Let the market come to our levels.
✅ S&P500 mini futures broke above 6200, closing at 6223.75. The resistance was crushed right into quarter-end — pure window dressing + low liquidity + holiday flows. Fundamentals didn’t justify the move (PCE came hotter, personal income collapsed, and personal spending missed).
👉 This is the typical final euphoric push before macro reality kicks in.
📊 BTC remains capped below 110K, but still holding the rebound structure. The game is clear: • A squeeze toward 110–113K BTC can happen if equities hold. • Altcoins are still completely disconnected, sitting at -70% to -90% from their 2024 highs. This is a warning — the risk appetite isn’t healthy.
🧠 My scenario remains: • ✅ Bullish consolidation continues into early July. • 📉 🔻 After that — BTC pullback targets: 93K then 89K. • Same for stocks — after the window dressing, the cycle rolls over.
📅 Next big catalyst: NFP (US Jobs) on July 5. Expect volatility to spike into July.
💎 As always: No chasing. No gambling. Only execution when price hits our levels. Precision builds profits. Noise kills capital.
Markets remain volatile amid escalating geopolitical tensions and cautious central bank signals. BTC and ETH continue to show sharp fluctuations, calling for disciplined positioning and strategic flexibility.
Current exposure: • 30% crypto / 70% cash • 10% BTC short, the rest in selective large-cap crypto longs.
🔜 Key events this week: • US GDP (Q1 third estimate) — Thursday, June 26 • PCE Inflation — Friday, June 27 → Both are critical for market sentiment and the Fed’s next moves.
🔹 FOMC today, Triple Witching Friday, and next week we get US GDP & PCE — a perfect storm for volatility. Buckle up.
🔻 USDT Dominance is mid-range — no clear breakout or breakdown yet. We’re between key resistance (5.08–5.30%) and support (4.36–4.00%), which makes current positioning critical.
⚠️ BTC remains trapped below $110K, with alts still lagging heavily. This divergence could flip fast — either altcoins catch up, or BTC triggers a broader correction.
📈 SPX Futures hit 6100+ this week — short-term squeeze possible, but macro + seasonality lean toward a risk-off window into July.
🧠 Reminder: No chasing, no gambling — only trading when price hits our levels. Patience builds profits. We’re ready either way.