Trader 207

EVERYONE’S CALLING THE TOP….BUT THIS SETUP SCREAMS $200K $BTC BITCOIN 🚀🚨

A lot of traders are turning cautious right now.

And what's the reason?

➬ $BTC failing twice at $124K
➬ Bearish divergence on RSI
➬ Recent MACD bearish crossover.

At first glance, these are valid warnings as they often signal exhaustion at the top.

But if you look deeper, they don't look like the cycle top.

Let me explain to you why 👇

► We’re still inside the Elliott Wave structure, and the chart shows we’re in Wave (5).

► Historically, this wave is the most explosive part of the cycle, the one that usually extends far beyond expectations.

► At the moment, Bitcoin is consolidating around $110K-$112K level. Price action is forming a falling wedge, which is often a continuation pattern, not a reversal.

► The key levels are clear: $109K as immediate support and $98K as the stronger major support. As long as these 2 levels hold, the broader uptrend is intact.

► Yes, the short term price momentum is looking bearish.

► RSI has made a lower high while the price has made a higher high. That’s a textbook bearish divergence.

► MACD has crossed bearish, which usually shows fading momentum.

► And the rejection around $124K has created a possible double top formation, with the neckline sitting right at $109K.

► If you only look at these three signals, it seems bearish. But Bitcoin has a history of invalidating these kinds of bearish signals during bull markets.

► Take January 2024 as an example. We had a shooting star candle, a doji, and a bearish MACD cross all at once.

► The market looked ready to break down but instead, Bitcoin ripped higher and pumped 70% in just 2 months.

What could cause a big rally?

➺ Looking at the macro picture will help overcome your permabear disease. The macro structure is still higher highs and higher lows.

➺ Until Bitcoin loses both the $109K and $98K levels, the bull structure isn’t broken.

➺ Even more important are the cycle models.

➺ Stock-to-Flow, log regression, on-chain data, and cycle comparisons, nearly 30 different models, all still show we haven’t reached the cycle top yet. Most point to a peak in early 2026, not now.

➺ Liquidity also backs this view. Rate cuts, incoming fiscal stimulus, and rising global M2 are all supporting risk-on assets rally in the coming months.

➺ Also, Bitcoin has historically topped at the peak of the liquidity cycle and that cycle still has room to expand.

Important levels For Bitcoin 👇

✦ Wave (5) projection: $160K–$200K by Q1 2026.

✦ Support levels: $109K and $98K

✦ That’s why I see the current setup not as a breakdown, but as a bullish consolidation inside a much larger wave.

Conclusion 👇

● Short-term risk signals are screaming bearish.

● But the bigger structure remains bullish.

● If $109K and $98K support level hold, the rally to $160K–$200K is still on the table.

$BTC
#TrumpTariffs #BTC