The previous two ancient whales made a lot of noise but had little impact; this time, the ancient whale has both significant noise and impact.

Waking up at noon to see a drop, I first went to find Trump and found nothing wrong. The second thing I did was look for @ai_9684xtpa and @EmberCN (ladies first) and discovered the issue of the ancient whale appearing again, so the usual three-piece set would suffice.

First: Look at the data of transfers to exchanges. Indeed, in the last 12 hours, over 25,000 $BTC has transferred to exchanges. I'm not sure if it's an ancient whale, but even if it isn't, it's causing panic among investors because the main exchange receiving them is not #Coinbase, but rather #Binance the most, followed by #OKX with some. Considering this is during the Asian time zone, I'm still hesitant to conclude, but the transfer volume has indeed increased, and anticipated sell-offs are also on the rise.

Second: Look at the exchange inventory. This data is even more important, as it shows whether the actual transferred inventory is being absorbed, especially if it's bought by long-term holders, who usually cash out. However, currently, the exchange inventory is still at a relatively high level, and not much has been absorbed.

Third: Will it affect the fundamentals? I don't think so. The current fundamentals are still about U.S. tariffs and monetary policy, which haven’t shown any issues, and the pre-market for U.S. stocks seems stable without any major problems. Bitcoin and U.S. stocks remain highly correlated.

So, I personally believe that the overall impact on the market is limited. Of course, this also depends on whether there will be a panic sell-off following this. I've already opened my long positions. If I'm right, I’ll boast; if I'm wrong, I’ll stand up for a beating.

This article is sponsored by #Bitget ｜ @Bitget_zh