军师九天

Looking at the performance of new projects launched by Binance in the past year, it is truly a bloodbath and shocking!
In the past year, Bitcoin has risen from less than $30,000 to now $100,000, but apart from that, 99% of projects have performed extremely poorly, especially the new coins launched on Binance in the past year, which have been continuously declining! As the largest exchange in the crypto space, Binance cannot be entirely absolved of responsibility! Objectively speaking, it is not entirely Binance's fault; the fundamental reason is that there are currently too many meaningless money-grabbing projects. In 2020, Binance had about 180 projects, and now it has grown to over 350, not including the millions of projects on web3. With so many projects and limited funds, it is not surprising that this bull market has performed very bearishly.

🔥🔥 Usual target: 50 USD!

Brothers, I am the person who bought over 20,000 BNB at 1.5 USD in January 2017 and did not hold on. Who could have imagined that in just a few years, it could rise to 700 USD? Every time I think about this regretful transaction, I tell myself that for good projects, we might as well imagine boldly; their growth often far exceeds expectations!

Next, let's get to the point and talk about why I believe usual may have a hundredfold upside potential. I am extremely optimistic about it for three main reasons:
1. Usual is a community project with 13 investors collectively obtaining 5% of the tokens, locked for 12 months. This extremely low ratio can be seen as the project having no VC, so there is no need to worry about institutional sell-offs. The project was launched at the beginning of a bull market, coinciding with investors' deep aversion to VCs, making it a timely opportunity.

Viewpoint: usual is seriously underestimated! #USUAL
Reasons: 1. Pre-market trading ~ Binance purchase restrictions, which temporarily prevented institutions and large investors from making large-scale investments
2. The vast majority (99.9%) of investors did not read its white paper carefully, resulting in fatal misjudgments in market value and valuation.
We know that the maximum supply of Usual is 4b. Many cautious investors are used to using the total amount to evaluate the long-term investment value of a project, which is fine. But using the total amount to estimate Usual is obviously a major mistake.
Why❓——Because the release of usual is not linearly released according to time, it is supplied and destroyed according to TVL, and TVL determines the fundamental income of the protocol. If TVL increases, usual will be released, and if TVL decreases, it will be destroyed instead. Therefore, it is obviously absurd to use total supply for valuation, but only based on current TVL (income)!

I will publish a "New Three Questions" and ask experts to answer your questions.

There are three doors, and there is 5 million behind one of them. You can get it after selecting it. Suppose you and Xiao Ming each choose a door. You choose A and Xiao Ming chooses C. At this time, the system opens B, and the result shows that door B did not win the prize. Now the question comes - if they are interchangeable, are you willing to exchange choices with Xiao Ming? Why ❓ - One explanation is that it is not necessary, because the probability of winning the prize for the remaining two doors is 1/2. One explanation is that it should be changed. Suppose you choose A at first and the probability of winning is 1/3. The other two doors BC combined have a winning probability of 2/3. If the system opens door B and it is an empty door, then the probability of C is 2/3. Yes, it should be replaced. But what if you are Xiao Ming? From Xiao Ming's point of view, the probability of AB is also 2/3. Since B is an empty goal, the probability of A is also 2/3 and should be changed. Should I change it? I'm so worried.

Try to imagine the market demand ten years from now. It may be easier for us to grasp the dormant dark horses now! Ten years later, population aging has become the situation in many countries, blockchain technology has become widely popularized, Web3 has become the Internet of the new era, and digital currency has become the mainstream of daily payments.

The technology that solves the aging population is artificial intelligence. This is also an industry that I was strongly optimistic about two or three years ago.

There is a high probability that ETH will quickly lose the competition in the future. Technology is changing with each passing day. Due to technological innovation, the performance of APT, SUI, SEI, etc. has been improved exponentially. It is not ruled out that the market value will surpass ETH in the future.

1. Eager for success

When I was 20 years old, I often imagined that if I couldn't achieve anything before I turned 30, I might as well just jump off the building. In fact, I was still very poor when I was 30 years old.

In our 20s, we are ignorant and presumptuous, young and frivolous, with high ambitions but low ambitions. We are full of vigorous fighting spirit and soaring dreams. This is a good thing. It makes us fearless and dare to think and do. But if you are in the financial market, you are destined to experience a baptism of hardships!

The more people are short of money, the more they want to make money faster, and financial markets generally provide leverage. Objectively speaking, leverage can indeed be a small gain, but 99% of investors cannot make reasonable use of it.

——Tao to simplicity! It is so easy to make money in the financial market, but the reality is that 90% of investors lose money.

(There are many pitfalls that lead to losses, and I will sort them out one by one in the next article.) This article simply shares a way to make money easily.

【Large cycle strategy】

The so-called big cycle strategy is to make investment decisions based on the economic (monetary) cycle.

for example,

(1) What time is it now? ——The Federal Reserve's interest rate hike cycle, currently 5% to 5.25%, the Federal Reserve raised the deposit interest rate from 0 to 5% in just over a year, so we have seen depressed prices for many projects.

The Kelly formula was proposed by John R. Kelly, Jr. in 1956. It indicates the optimal proportion of bets that should be made each period in a recurring gamble or investment with a positive expected return. Kelly's formula has long been famous in "Las Vegas" and "Wall Street". Many mathematical geniuses have developed it in casinos and investments and have achieved extraordinary results. The most famous among them is probably Dr. Edward Thorp, who developed a strategy for defeating Blackjack (21 points) and used the proportion calculated by Kelly's formula to make bets (Thorp 1962); after playing in the casino, Dr. Thorp used it in His talents in statistics and probability theory are used in investment. The PNP hedge fund he founded has achieved annual returns of more than 20% in the past 30 years (Thorp 2017).