I have already written several articles about the conspiracy theories surrounding Trump. The current investment market cannot be considered a real bull market; it can be called a "Trump market."
The rise of the market can no longer be understood with common logic, and the decline of the market cannot be comprehended with general knowledge.
You must often stand in the perspective of the "institution," and you will be able to predict risks in advance to reduce positions, and also know in advance when to increase positions.
At that time, I mentioned that Trump would create various messages to make the entire market sharply reverse; raising prices is for dumping, and dumping is for building positions.
When the stablecoin bill comes down and various favorable news appears, I already knew that risks had arrived.
Those who regularly read my articles will know that I rarely trade contracts; I am almost a spot player, only occasionally trading contracts during extreme market conditions.
I am a cyclical player, and I am very clear that by trading the cycles, I can continuously thrive in the market. Only in the bottom market of April did I recommend low leverage long positions, and the next opportunity for low leverage long positions will probably be in July.
Over the course of a year, I will not open contracts more than 10 times, but whenever I do, I make significant gains.
In such a volatile market, the odds are really low, and unless I am certain of an 80% to 90% win rate, I absolutely will not take risks lightly.
For small capital, trading a few dozen or a few hundred units with low leverage is meaningless; for me, it feels like a waste of time. From my perspective, retail investors can still take large long positions, with July remaining.
That will be your only chance to change your fate against all odds.
The illusion of making money in the investment market is the beginning of retail investors heading towards zero. The illusion of making money is the "floating profit number on the books."
When the market does not meet your expectations, because you did not take profits at the highs, thoughts of unwillingness and dissatisfaction arise.
At this moment, it is also the stage where retail investors increase leverage in an attempt to regain floating profits, the devil in your heart begins to sprout, leverage increases, and the number of stop-losses grows.
Originally, the floating profits from these past few months, because of your high position increasing holdings and leverage, begin to turn into floating losses, and you start to question life, from the investment discipline you originally adhered to, to directly wanting to gamble everything to win it back.
Ultimately, it falls before dawn, most retail investors in the market can never change their fate of becoming cannon fodder. $BTC $ETH
June is the last carnival opportunity in the recent cryptocurrency market. Let's first review my updates on the market in May. At the beginning of May, it was at 92,000. I mentioned in April that there would be an explosive bullish market coming, so I guided everyone to buy the dip. But the closer we get to June, the more cautious we need to be. Bitcoin surged from 74,000 all the way to 112,000. During this period, there were also many positive developments, including stablecoin legislation and the U.S. increasing Bitcoin reserves. As we approach June, the higher the sentiment, the more dangerous it becomes. Including the risk from previous tariffs that have not yet been resolved, along with U.S. debt issues. My thoughts for June are: 1. Funds from Bitcoin are starting to flow into altcoins. 2. Ethereum is entering a major bullish market. 3. The surge in Ethereum and meme coins, the doomsday chariot is starting. This wave actually hasn't trapped too many people yet, and the sentiment hasn't fully developed. This is also why I think there is still a chance for a rally in early June, but after the altcoins surge, we need to gradually reduce our positions, especially in the past few days I have recommended starting to slowly reduce positions, being ready to take profits is very reasonable. Keep a little spot position to catch the last tail, but I do not recommend going all in, and when there are further rebounds or even opportunities to rise later, continue to reduce positions. Perhaps in July, we will see an excellent buying point similar to April.
Starting to see some non-crypto people discussing stablecoins, stablecoins can only temporarily suppress the bomb of US debt. The overall flow and capital in the crypto space is still too small, just the price of Bitcoin allows Wall Street's funds to manipulate the market at will. The market benefits that stablecoins bring to US debt are very short-lived. But the emergence of stablecoins shows that the market's "players" still want to covet the wealth effect within the crypto space, like in the last bull market, due to the promotion of Busd + Defi, BNB and Cake Bake skyrocketed. Various memes and large chain games are also on the BSC chain. This time, the players promoting stablecoins already include Sonko and Trump's USD1, in addition, Bitget has also launched its own BGUSD, and many exchanges have also launched virtual gold, cryptifying gold, trying to attract funds from all sides. Seeing how proactive the players are, it indicates that there must be profit to be made in the future, especially the altcoin season bull market is definitely still ongoing, but I think the term altcoin season needs to change; it should be called altcoin month or altcoin week in the future.
Can Ether still become a king? When will the altcoin season come?
A few months ago, the most asked questions were about ETH and ADA,
To summarize what I talked about before:
1. ADA is quite average, SOL is better. → Currently, ADA is still flat, while SOL has nearly doubled in value.
2. It's recommended to reduce holdings in Sol at 176 and Sui at 4u, and to exit meme coins entirely. → Sol has retraced to 153, and Sui has returned to 3.2.
3. It's advised to continue holding ETH, but overall I am not optimistic about ETH breaking 10,000. → ETH continues to rise, currently around 2650.
4. I am optimistic that ETH will rise to around 3,000 to 4,000. → Waiting for realization; if it reaches this price, I will definitely sell, and my viewpoint remains unchanged.
Recently, BlackRock reduced its Bitcoin holdings and increased its ETH holdings, which justifies my bearish outlook on BTC but bullish outlook on ETH.
The fluctuations in the Ether series are significant; if you're worried, hold onto your Ether, and if not, I am currently still holding ETHFI and PEPE.
The SOL series will definitely be drained due to the token issuance from the pump launch platform, which aligns with my view of reducing SOL holdings last month.
In summary:
I continue to be bullish on the ETH series, but if the doomsday machine drives the entire cryptocurrency market, even boosting BTC, then I will start to reduce my long-term positions after it rises to 120,000.
The market driven by the doomsday machine will cause a significant correction in the cryptocurrency market.
I still hold a pessimistic view on ETH breaking 10,000, and the big altcoin season is not now.
After I shared my thoughts on the June market, some people even liquidated their positions. I just got lucky and guessed correctly a few months ago, but the adjustment of positions has been too extreme. Additionally, everyone likes to look at various messages, most are just trying to find news that aligns with their views. Predicting the market is a difficult task, which is why you often see many people playing a game of Tai Chi, one moment calling for 120,000, then 130,000, then saying it’s a meme season, and then again saying if it drops below 100,000 it might fall to 90,000. I post what I do myself. Because I am a player entering the market, I will continuously update my views to my group. In summary, my mindset hasn't changed. This month belongs to the "Ethereum" series of market, I’ve been discussing this view for over a week. Even a few days ago when the market was very poor, I still have a positive outlook on Ethereum-related altcoins, so I still recommend coins like ETHfi, Pepe, etc., because Pepe is the leader of this meme sector, so I naturally also have a positive outlook on Wif, Floki, and Bonk. But this month I favor Pepe a little more than Wif, the reason is simple, this month is all about the Ethereum market. Many people like to heavily invest or liquidate after seeing KOL posts, just losing all their capital is only a matter of time, as for Ethereum after the pump, what awaits us is the doomsday chariot. Being 80% full is enough, often the big market driven by Ethereum, when it falls, it can be quite devastating. $ETH $BTC
Have you noticed that some KOLs say things that are not what actual traders would say?
Those who throw real money onto the battlefield have a mindset that is both complex and allows for some margin of error.
For example, I may be bearish in the near term, but I believe there will be a rebound; at this point, I can't fully exit my position, so it becomes a situation where both rises and falls are acceptable, as I will have profits at the highs.
Selling is always done in batches, and buying is also done in batches.
This is a real scenario that every investor will encounter.
It is impossible to catch the absolute bottom,
and it is impossible to sell at the absolute top; this is reasonable.
So what scenarios are unreasonable?
For instance, when Bitcoin drops to 70,000 and looks down at 60,000,
then rises to 110,000 and jumps out looking up at 130,000.
When it rises to 110,000, but he claims he caught the bottom at 70,000,
this is called telling a story based on a chart, not the perspective of someone on the battlefield.
Because the actual scenario of investing is
predicting a low point but missing the order, and the market goes up. Predicting a high point but missing the order, and the market goes down.
Some people create templates of eternal profit masters, always leaving a margin of space, always being right; this is what is unreasonable.
I am a small user on the trading battlefield of the crypto world,
if you want to transform from a losing novice,
into a seasoned trader who loses less and occasionally makes small profits,
the first thing to do is to give up the illusion of "always making a profit."
A few weeks ago, when I saw that the "Binance Airdrop" was profitable,
I wrote no less than ten articles urging Taiwanese people to try it out.
Because I know that as long as mainland Chinese enter the market and start rolling, most of them will begin with dozens of accounts to brush airdrops.
Finding an opportunity is truly about rolling; a few days ago, I saw a KOL with 40 accounts, and this person had 72 accounts.
In simple terms,
this guy had his father go to a factory to find people to register on Binance,
and he himself went out to find people to brush; as long as you ask, there will be opportunities.
Later, how to distribute the airdrops that were brushed is up to everyone.
Just last month, I had one account, and after deducting the wear and tear costs, I earned about 2000 USD, roughly 60,000 NTD.
I have 3 accounts brushing, plus my friends and family, it's more than 10 accounts.
One phone paired with one account; after registration and facial recognition, you can start brushing directly.
This brother with 72 accounts brushed around 4 million NTD.
I have to admire the execution ability of mainland Chinese,
while many Taiwanese, when being taught how to brush, still find it troublesome or think the earnings are too small.
Then, when others seize the information gap to make money, they like to envy the rich, resent the bosses, and blame their parents.
The standards for airdrops are getting higher and higher; I don't know how long this will last, but in any case, just keep brushing; the daily cost is just a few bucks.
Speaking of which, I have a mainland friend who has been unemployed for a long time,
after hearing about his daily life, I really wonder how he survives,
I can only describe it as a tenacious vitality...... I really admire it.
Is the SOPH token from the Binance airdrop the day before yesterday promising for the future? I have suggested in my group that airdropped tokens should be sold right away, but this token is quite special, and maybe I will keep an eye on it in the future. This token focuses on: Gaming/Social/Entertainment/Ticketing. For example, everyone rushes for tickets, or some entertainment expenses, all need to be done through traditional platforms. If in the future blockchain integrates identity verification and email binding issues, it might solve problems similar to scalping. Of course, this is currently just a vision, it's the first time I’ve heard of a token linked to culture and entertainment, which feels quite fresh. Like when I previously rushed for Jay Chou's tickets, blockchain could solve the ticket grabbing problem, but the level of blockchain adoption is still too low, and there is still a long way to go to realization, this time Binance not only airdropped but also launched a Launchpool, it can be seen that SOPH is one of the key projects they are promoting.
Yesterday in my group, I continued to recommend wif bonk floki pepe dog These are all high-potential meme coins. Based on my previous judgment, there will be another wave of meme week coming up, and after that, I will gradually reduce my holdings in early June.
Unity of knowledge and action!
Additionally, I shared my pepe grid, This time, the leading meme coins are driven by pepe, followed by the upcoming celebration, and then waiting for a pullback.
A few days ago, the Sui chain was attacked, and the price of Sui, which was originally soaring, has been stuck around 3.6.
However, it can be seen from Binance Alpha that Binance not only wants to promote BNB.
In terms of recent competitions, it also aims to promote the Sui chain, Sonic, and others.
This aligns with the three major S’s I have been recommending for the past few months.
"Sol, Sui, S" are consistent directions; the ecosystems of these public chains are the targets Binance aims to build in the future.
Especially recently, the small Hailai coin HAEDAL has been launched.
In the previous round of the DeFi boom, it drove a new bull market; this time, there is almost no new narrative, especially related to DeFi.
However, due to Sui, it has stimulated the heat of DeFi on the primary chain, and even started creating liquidity LP tokens on-chain.
Despite the attack on Sui,
according to Defillama, the TVL (Total Value Locked) remains very high, indicating that there are still quite a few people engaged in DeFi and staking on the small Hailai HAEDAL.
In the subsequent Q3, there is a high probability that stronger market-making strategies will be launched,
so if you are a holder of Sui, you can try to learn to operate staking on the small Hailai to earn interest.
Moreover, Binance has always wanted to boost the popularity of the Binance wallet,
users can directly transfer from the exchange to the wallet to start staking ↓
What impact will the maturity of U.S. Treasury bonds in June have on us? The maturity of U.S. Treasury bonds means — "The U.S. pays back the principal to investors and repays interest" So if the U.S. doesn't have the money to pay, it has to "issue new debt to pay off old debt." To attract funds to buy new bonds, the interest rate on new bonds must be relatively high for the market to be willing to buy. This will lead to: 1. The U.S. issues new bonds. 2. The capital in the market is financed in U.S. Treasuries. 3. Funds are leaving riskier assets. This is also why I would suggest that those who haven't bought Bitcoin (BTC) in the past few weeks can hold off; perhaps June is not a very good time to enter. I would have suggested buying in large amounts in early April; it was truly a very good opportunity. But at this juncture, I recommend hitting the brakes. The next few days, I will consider as a tail end of the cryptocurrency market, especially since the Bitcoin Greed Index has already reached 76, the market is starting to show some FOMO behavior. It might rise for a few days, and around early June, I would suggest reducing positions. If it rises in the meantime, I will ignore it, the next increase is just for unloading, and after June, we will wait for the opportunity to re-enter.
The battle to defend the 30 exchange rate between the US dollar and the New Taiwan dollar has officially broken.
In my article on May 6th, I mentioned that when the exchange rate of the New Taiwan dollar against the US dollar returns, the US dollar must escape and be exchanged back for New Taiwan dollars.
Last time I predicted a significant drop in the US dollar, after breaking 30, one could buy the US dollar at a low price, and when it rebounds, it must be sold at a high price. At that time, I estimated the exchange rate to be around 30.5.
USDT on exchanges exceeds this price,
but the price of USD in banks reaches a maximum of around 30.4.
My prediction going forward is 30, 29, 28, 27... gradually going down.
After such a long rebound, there has been a lot of time for people to escape, this time is quite passive.
Whether it will continue to slowly boil the frog,
let's just continue to watch...
Previously, I suggested to those outside the cryptocurrency circle, now holding two types:
1. Just hold onto New Taiwan dollars
2. Simply exchange everything for Bitcoin (BTC)
For those who are more conservative in investment, it is best not to make any moves during this period.
If you want to invest, directly buying Bitcoin offers the best return on investment.
Bitcoin has risen from a low of 74,000 to the current 109,000, which is a 47% increase.
The logic behind Bitcoin's rise I have previously deduced,
especially since on April 7th, Bitcoin miners entered the market and started their machines, increasing the hash rate, following the miners is definitely correct.
Even deducting the portion of profit lost due to the appreciation of the New Taiwan dollar, there is still about a 40% profit.
As for the impact of US Treasury bond maturities,
the capital flow involved behind this may be mentioned in my next article.