People looks so scared for the potential recession in the US right now as we can see the equity market in the beginning of this week is getting obliterated which Nikkei has dropped pretty hard.
I fully understand how this is currently looking, pretty bad environment even for me which you know have always been in the bullish side all this time.
Not just that, the clash between Ukraine, Russia, and US regarding the ceasefire is adding more risk into the market as of now. It's getting hot in my opinion which makes people are in the sideline / bearish right now.
More to the data : - US10 year bond yield is dropping, showing people are derisking. - Gold price goes up has always been the indicator of chaos in the market. - Stock market is falling and getting obliterated.
However, I want you to think as an investor and as a good market participants here. You have to answer this question. Do you think Trump will let the country fall in recession under his control?
I'll let you digest that question.
My thesis is still the same. I'm in the bullish side and still looking at current structure of correction as the short term one. It looks severe because it's a time based capitulation as price is moving so slow in the low liquidity environment.
The main play here is Trump will force the FED to enter the easing policy sooner than the market expected and the goal is to refinance the US short term debt at lower rate.
BTC will ultimately become the institutions vehicle this cycle to beat the S&P earning. It has shown us the fact that in the last few drops on stock market, BTC continues to hold its structure well.
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⚠️Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only and I am not your financial adviser. It is not financial advice. Please always conduct your own research and analysis before investing in any cryptocurrency or relying on the information provided. The content is based on data available as of [current date], and market conditions may change rapidly. Invest wisely and consider your risk tolerance before making any investment decisions.
Drop your analysis, opinion, comment, or anyone as you like
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❌⚠️Scammers Disclaimer: I do not accept investments nor operate any investment schemes. Please safeguard your funds and refrain from transferring money to anyone claiming otherwise."
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⚠️Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only and I am not your financial adviser. It is not financial advice. Please always conduct your own research and analysis before investing in any cryptocurrency or relying on the information provided. The content is based on data available as of [current date], and market conditions may change rapidly. Invest wisely and consider your risk tolerance before making any investment decisions.
Drop your analysis, opinion, comment, or anyone as you like
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❌⚠️Scammers Disclaimer: I do not accept investments nor operate any investment schemes. Please safeguard your funds and refrain from transferring money to anyone claiming otherwise."
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⚠️Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only and I am not your financial adviser. It is not financial advice. Please always conduct your own research and analysis before investing in any cryptocurrency or relying on the information provided. The content is based on data available as of [current date], and market conditions may change rapidly. Invest wisely and consider your risk tolerance before making any investment decisions.
$GRASS - USDT. P Long 25x SL : 1.5922 TP: 1.6493 TP: 1.6775
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❌⚠️Scammers Disclaimer: I do not accept investments nor operate any investment schemes. Please safeguard your funds and refrain from transferring money to anyone claiming otherwise."
------------------------
⚠️Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only and I am not your financial adviser. It is not financial advice. Please always conduct your own research and analysis before investing in any cryptocurrency or relying on the information provided. The content is based on data available as of [current date], and market conditions may change rapidly. Invest wisely and consider your risk tolerance before making any investment decisions.
Drop your analysis, opinion, comment, or anyone as you like
-----------------------------
❌⚠️Scammers Disclaimer: I do not accept investments nor operate any investment schemes. Please safeguard your funds and refrain from transferring money to anyone claiming otherwise."
------------------------
⚠️Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only and I am not your financial adviser. It is not financial advice. Please always conduct your own research and analysis before investing in any cryptocurrency or relying on the information provided. The content is based on data available as of [current date], and market conditions may change rapidly. Invest wisely and consider your risk tolerance before making any investment decisions.
You can have the perfect entry. The right narrative. The cleanest chart. But if you don’t manage risk, none of that matters.
The truth is: you won’t always be right. And that’s fine—because you don’t need to be right all the time. What matters is how much you lose when you’re wrong, and how well you let your wins run when you’re right.
Risk management isn’t just about stop losses or position sizing. It’s about knowing when to go heavy, when to scale back, and when to step aside completely.
It’s about survival. Because if you blow up, you’re out of the game—and no prediction, thesis, or setup will save you from that.
The market doesn’t care about your ego. It rewards discipline, patience, and respect for risk.
But here’s the thing: risk management starts with mindset. You can know all the rules, but without the right mental framework, you won’t follow them when it matters most.
So, let's go step by step. Thesis one: there are no more cycles...
The first three four-year BTC cycles developed similarly: • Year 1: Halving = year of accumulation, weak trend. • Year 2: The following year after the halving = super bullish, setting a new ATH (12-18 months after the halving). • Year 3: Bear market. • Year 4: Recovery.
What do we have now? • Year 1: (2024) Halving = ATH before the halving, super bullish. • Year 2: (2025) If we extrapolate history = super bullish? • Year 3: (2026) Bear market? • Year 4: (2027) Recovery?
As we can see, there's already a significant divergence from previous years.
My theory: there are no more cycles in their usual form. BTC is in a supercycle like gold or Nasdaq. Therefore, its growth may continue in 2026 and 2027. Meanwhile, altcoins within this larger supercycle experience micro bulls and bears.
And right now, we're in a micro-bear phase (for alts and ETH). And it’s something that just needs to be waited out. It won’t last for years as it did before because BTC will soon resume its growth within its supercycle.
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