东门刮霜
小韭菜反思中，反指大师
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A Few Thoughts on Trump's Coin Release:
1. Where does market increment come from?
1. Assuming there is no increase in market funds, the relationship between coins is also a PVP (player versus player) relationship; the rise of a certain coin is driven by siphoning off incremental funds from other coins (stablecoins included). Just like on the day Trump announced, most coin prices fell because most people sold other coins to buy Trump.
In a situation where market funds are fixed, although theoretically the price of coins can grow infinitely, in practice the price increase is limited because at the same price point, there will always be people who are bullish and bearish, so it won't grow infinitely.
2. Where does the incremental fund in the crypto space come from? I personally feel it comes from the issuance of stablecoins that are backed by real assets (like USDT, USDC, etc.). (I don't think coins like DAI contribute to the crypto space's increment because they are collateralized by cryptocurrencies. Additionally, coins like USDE don't count either because their weak liquidity limits their trading attributes.)
2. What will happen next?
My guesses about the next developments are:
1. Trump will definitely use his political convenience to seek benefits for himself: for example, promoting loose policies (because the liquidity most likely ends up in the hands of capitalists, with limited benefits for ordinary people), and being friendly towards crypto to promote the growth of his crypto assets.
2. Trump will continue to attract incremental funds for the crypto space through his influence, which aligns with his interests.
3. Trump will again siphon off benefits from the crypto space for his own interests through various means (from the releases of Trump and Melania, it can be seen that Trump doesn't care about the appearance of his actions), which is actually a negative factor for the crypto space (referring to Trump, including his family, and all other coins not held by World Liberty Financial).
Essentially, Trump is a politician and a businessman, inherently untrustworthy. It's just that when the interests of the crypto space align with his interests, he hopped on the train of his regime and moved forward for a while. During this journey, Trump may still siphon off benefits from the crypto space for his own gain at any time.
1. Where does market increment come from?
1. Assuming there is no increase in market funds, the relationship between coins is also a PVP (player versus player) relationship; the rise of a certain coin is driven by siphoning off incremental funds from other coins (stablecoins included). Just like on the day Trump announced, most coin prices fell because most people sold other coins to buy Trump.
In a situation where market funds are fixed, although theoretically the price of coins can grow infinitely, in practice the price increase is limited because at the same price point, there will always be people who are bullish and bearish, so it won't grow infinitely.
2. Where does the incremental fund in the crypto space come from? I personally feel it comes from the issuance of stablecoins that are backed by real assets (like USDT, USDC, etc.). (I don't think coins like DAI contribute to the crypto space's increment because they are collateralized by cryptocurrencies. Additionally, coins like USDE don't count either because their weak liquidity limits their trading attributes.)
2. What will happen next?
My guesses about the next developments are:
1. Trump will definitely use his political convenience to seek benefits for himself: for example, promoting loose policies (because the liquidity most likely ends up in the hands of capitalists, with limited benefits for ordinary people), and being friendly towards crypto to promote the growth of his crypto assets.
2. Trump will continue to attract incremental funds for the crypto space through his influence, which aligns with his interests.
3. Trump will again siphon off benefits from the crypto space for his own interests through various means (from the releases of Trump and Melania, it can be seen that Trump doesn't care about the appearance of his actions), which is actually a negative factor for the crypto space (referring to Trump, including his family, and all other coins not held by World Liberty Financial).
Essentially, Trump is a politician and a businessman, inherently untrustworthy. It's just that when the interests of the crypto space align with his interests, he hopped on the train of his regime and moved forward for a while. During this journey, Trump may still siphon off benefits from the crypto space for his own gain at any time.
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[Macro Briefing 1216]
1. Macroeconomic data:
1. Dollar index: finally down 0.071%, at 106.94
2. Treasury prices: 2-year U.S. Treasury yield ended at 4.247%, 10-year at 4.396%
3. Gold price: finally down 1.22%, at $2648.39 per ounce
4. WTI crude oil: WTI rose 1.45%, at $70.67 per barrel
5. Stock market: Dow down 0.20%, falling for the 7th consecutive trading day; Nasdaq up 0.12%
6. USDCNY: 7.287
7. Rate hike expectations: According to the Fed rate tracker, the probability of maintaining rates at 4.50 - 4.75% in December is 0.4%, while the chance of a cut to 4.25 - 4.50% is 99.6%.
1. Dollar index: finally down 0.071%, at 106.94
2. Treasury prices: 2-year U.S. Treasury yield ended at 4.247%, 10-year at 4.396%
3. Gold price: finally down 1.22%, at $2648.39 per ounce
4. WTI crude oil: WTI rose 1.45%, at $70.67 per barrel
5. Stock market: Dow down 0.20%, falling for the 7th consecutive trading day; Nasdaq up 0.12%
6. USDCNY: 7.287
7. Rate hike expectations: According to the Fed rate tracker, the probability of maintaining rates at 4.50 - 4.75% in December is 0.4%, while the chance of a cut to 4.25 - 4.50% is 99.6%.
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[Macroeconomic Briefing 1213]
One, macroeconomic data:
1. Dollar Index: Finally closed up 0.34% at 107.01.
2. Government bond prices: The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.201%, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.334%.
3. Gold prices: Finally closed down 1.36% at $2,680.57 per ounce.
4. WTI crude oil: WTI crude oil closed down 0.47% at $69.63 per barrel.
5. Stock market: The Dow fell 0.53%, the S&P 500 fell 0.54%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.66%.
6. USDCNY: 7.28
7. Interest rate hike expectations: According to the Federal Reserve rate monitor, the probability of maintaining interest rates at 4.50 - 4.75 in December is 1.5%, while the probability of cutting rates to 4.25 - 4.50 is 98.5%.
1. Dollar Index: Finally closed up 0.34% at 107.01.
2. Government bond prices: The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.201%, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.334%.
3. Gold prices: Finally closed down 1.36% at $2,680.57 per ounce.
4. WTI crude oil: WTI crude oil closed down 0.47% at $69.63 per barrel.
5. Stock market: The Dow fell 0.53%, the S&P 500 fell 0.54%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.66%.
6. USDCNY: 7.28
7. Interest rate hike expectations: According to the Federal Reserve rate monitor, the probability of maintaining interest rates at 4.50 - 4.75 in December is 1.5%, while the probability of cutting rates to 4.25 - 4.50 is 98.5%.
See original
[Macro Briefing 1212]
1. Macroeconomic data:
1. Dollar index: Finally up 0.23%, reported at 106.65
2. Treasury bond prices: The two-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.157%, and the ten-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.275%
3. Gold price: Finally up 0.89%, reported at $2,717.44 per ounce
4. WTI crude oil: WTI crude oil rose by 2.62%, reported at $69.96 per barrel
5. Stock market: Dow Jones fell 0.22%, S&P 500 rose 0.82%, Nasdaq rose 1.77%
6. USDCNY: 7.27
7. Rate hike expectations: According to the Federal Reserve Rate Monitor, the probability of maintaining the rate at 4.50 - 4.75 in December is 5.9%, while the probability of a cut to 4.25 - 4.50 is 94.1%.
1. Dollar index: Finally up 0.23%, reported at 106.65
2. Treasury bond prices: The two-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.157%, and the ten-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.275%
3. Gold price: Finally up 0.89%, reported at $2,717.44 per ounce
4. WTI crude oil: WTI crude oil rose by 2.62%, reported at $69.96 per barrel
5. Stock market: Dow Jones fell 0.22%, S&P 500 rose 0.82%, Nasdaq rose 1.77%
6. USDCNY: 7.27
7. Rate hike expectations: According to the Federal Reserve Rate Monitor, the probability of maintaining the rate at 4.50 - 4.75 in December is 5.9%, while the probability of a cut to 4.25 - 4.50 is 94.1%.
See original
The day before yesterday, I just said that the cryptocurrency market will always have a big drop, but it fell sharply yesterday. Of course, I didn't run away either. It's too difficult to achieve unity of knowledge and action.
I feel that it should not have reached the top yet. After all, the expectation of interest rate cuts is still there, and the probability of interest rate cuts in December is currently 90%. Just wait for the lottery on December 16.
But I am more worried about the US CPI data to be released at 21:30 tonight. Could it be that the data is negative and the market reacted in advance?
Let's summarize a few insights from yesterday:
1. When choosing a project, you should not only consider whether it can rise, but more importantly, whether its increase can exceed high-quality assets such as BTC. Otherwise, just hold the currency and don't move. (Of course, the facts prove that there are really few that can outperform BTC).
2. Remember to double the capital and don't fall in love with the project. Most coins only have one wave of opportunities and will be forgotten after a while. After all, everyone is thinking about buying new instead of old
3. Try not to chase high prices and try not to buy coins that have risen sharply. The coins that have risen sharply indicate that the main force has made a profit. If you buy again, the main force will leave at any time, and you will be standing guard on the top of the mountain.
4. Don't operate frequently, don't block the band, and try to make long-term investments. There are too many sharp rises and falls in the currency circle. Don't just see the thief eating meat and not the thief being beaten. Hold on to BTC
5. There is too much information in the currency circle every day. Pay attention to screening. If you don't have time to pay attention to each one and read each one, you should pay attention to mainstream projects. Especially projects invested by binance.
I feel that it should not have reached the top yet. After all, the expectation of interest rate cuts is still there, and the probability of interest rate cuts in December is currently 90%. Just wait for the lottery on December 16.
But I am more worried about the US CPI data to be released at 21:30 tonight. Could it be that the data is negative and the market reacted in advance?
Let's summarize a few insights from yesterday:
1. When choosing a project, you should not only consider whether it can rise, but more importantly, whether its increase can exceed high-quality assets such as BTC. Otherwise, just hold the currency and don't move. (Of course, the facts prove that there are really few that can outperform BTC).
2. Remember to double the capital and don't fall in love with the project. Most coins only have one wave of opportunities and will be forgotten after a while. After all, everyone is thinking about buying new instead of old
3. Try not to chase high prices and try not to buy coins that have risen sharply. The coins that have risen sharply indicate that the main force has made a profit. If you buy again, the main force will leave at any time, and you will be standing guard on the top of the mountain.
4. Don't operate frequently, don't block the band, and try to make long-term investments. There are too many sharp rises and falls in the currency circle. Don't just see the thief eating meat and not the thief being beaten. Hold on to BTC
5. There is too much information in the currency circle every day. Pay attention to screening. If you don't have time to pay attention to each one and read each one, you should pay attention to mainstream projects. Especially projects invested by binance.
See original
[Macroeconomic Briefing 1211]
I. Macroeconomic Data:
1. U.S. Dollar Index: Ultimately rose by 0.22%, settling at 106.38.
2. Treasury Prices: The yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury closed at 4.147%, while the yield on the ten-year U.S. Treasury closed at 4.225%.
3. Gold Prices: Ultimately rose by 1.25%, settling at $2,693.59 per ounce.
4. WTI Crude Oil: WTI crude oil rose by 0.4%, settling at $68.18 per barrel.
5. Stock Market: The Dow Jones fell by 0.35%, the S&P 500 dropped by 0.3%, and the NASDAQ decreased by 0.25%.
6. USDCNY: 7.24
7. Interest Rate Expectations: According to the Federal Reserve's rate monitor, the probability of maintaining rates at 4.50 - 4.75 in December is 7.7%, while the probability of a rate cut to 4.25 - 4.50 is 92.3%.
1. U.S. Dollar Index: Ultimately rose by 0.22%, settling at 106.38.
2. Treasury Prices: The yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury closed at 4.147%, while the yield on the ten-year U.S. Treasury closed at 4.225%.
3. Gold Prices: Ultimately rose by 1.25%, settling at $2,693.59 per ounce.
4. WTI Crude Oil: WTI crude oil rose by 0.4%, settling at $68.18 per barrel.
5. Stock Market: The Dow Jones fell by 0.35%, the S&P 500 dropped by 0.3%, and the NASDAQ decreased by 0.25%.
6. USDCNY: 7.24
7. Interest Rate Expectations: According to the Federal Reserve's rate monitor, the probability of maintaining rates at 4.50 - 4.75 in December is 7.7%, while the probability of a rate cut to 4.25 - 4.50 is 92.3%.
See original
[Macro Briefing 1210]
1. Macroeconomic data:
1. US Dollar Index: ultimately rose by 0.17%, closing at 106.11.
2. Government bond prices: The two-year US Treasury yield closed at 4.131%, and the ten-year US Treasury yield closed at 4.203%.
3. Gold prices: ultimately rose by 1.04%, closing at $2660.30 per ounce.
4. WTI Crude Oil: WTI crude oil rose by 1.4%, closing at $67.90 per barrel.
5. Stock market: stock indices fell across the board, with the Dow down 0.54%, S&P 500 down 0.61%, and Nasdaq down 0.62%.
6. USDCNY: 7.24.
7. Interest rate hike expectations: According to the Federal Reserve rate observer, the probability of maintaining the interest rate at 4.50 - 4.75 in December is 9.9%, while a decrease to 4.25 - 4.50 is 90.1%.
1. US Dollar Index: ultimately rose by 0.17%, closing at 106.11.
2. Government bond prices: The two-year US Treasury yield closed at 4.131%, and the ten-year US Treasury yield closed at 4.203%.
3. Gold prices: ultimately rose by 1.04%, closing at $2660.30 per ounce.
4. WTI Crude Oil: WTI crude oil rose by 1.4%, closing at $67.90 per barrel.
5. Stock market: stock indices fell across the board, with the Dow down 0.54%, S&P 500 down 0.61%, and Nasdaq down 0.62%.
6. USDCNY: 7.24.
7. Interest rate hike expectations: According to the Federal Reserve rate observer, the probability of maintaining the interest rate at 4.50 - 4.75 in December is 9.9%, while a decrease to 4.25 - 4.50 is 90.1%.
See original
Tips for losing money:
1. Don't chase high prices, it's easy to lose money
2. Don't eat the tail of the fish, set a stop profit line, otherwise it's easy to lose money
3. Research first, then enter the market, otherwise it's easy to fomo
4. Don't enter the market casually when you encounter news, most of them are pyramid schemes, focus on the big V with a high winning rate
5. Reduce leverage, the currency circle will always have a big drop, don't fall before dawn because of leverage.
6. Pursue the end with the capital, and protect it with the capital, distinguish between big and small kings
7. Don't go all in on a single coin, don't hang alone. If you are at the bronze level, play the bronze game, don't always treat yourself as gold
1. Don't chase high prices, it's easy to lose money
2. Don't eat the tail of the fish, set a stop profit line, otherwise it's easy to lose money
3. Research first, then enter the market, otherwise it's easy to fomo
4. Don't enter the market casually when you encounter news, most of them are pyramid schemes, focus on the big V with a high winning rate
5. Reduce leverage, the currency circle will always have a big drop, don't fall before dawn because of leverage.
6. Pursue the end with the capital, and protect it with the capital, distinguish between big and small kings
7. Don't go all in on a single coin, don't hang alone. If you are at the bronze level, play the bronze game, don't always treat yourself as gold
See original
[Macroeconomic Briefing 1209]
I. Macroeconomic Data:
1. U.S. Dollar Index: Finally closed up 0.23%, reported at 105.94.
2. Treasury Prices: Two-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.112%, and ten-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.17%.
3. Gold Prices: Finally closed up 0.05%, reported at $2633.01 per ounce.
4. WTI Crude Oil: WTI crude oil closed down 1.74%, reported at $66.96 per barrel.
5. Stock Market: The index fell by 0.28%, the S&P 500 index rose by 0.25%, and the Nasdaq rose by 0.81%.
6. USDCNY: 7.28.
7. Interest rate hike expectations: According to the Federal Reserve rate observer, the probability of maintaining the rate at 4.50 - 4.75 in December is 11%, while the probability of lowering it to 4.25 - 4.50 is 89%.
8. Cryptocurrency: Overall market value rose 0.69% to $3.68 trillion, with a 24-hour trading volume down 11.07% to $147.12 billion; stablecoin market value increased by 5.47% to $193.8 billion.
1. U.S. Dollar Index: Finally closed up 0.23%, reported at 105.94.
2. Treasury Prices: Two-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.112%, and ten-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.17%.
3. Gold Prices: Finally closed up 0.05%, reported at $2633.01 per ounce.
4. WTI Crude Oil: WTI crude oil closed down 1.74%, reported at $66.96 per barrel.
5. Stock Market: The index fell by 0.28%, the S&P 500 index rose by 0.25%, and the Nasdaq rose by 0.81%.
6. USDCNY: 7.28.
7. Interest rate hike expectations: According to the Federal Reserve rate observer, the probability of maintaining the rate at 4.50 - 4.75 in December is 11%, while the probability of lowering it to 4.25 - 4.50 is 89%.
8. Cryptocurrency: Overall market value rose 0.69% to $3.68 trillion, with a 24-hour trading volume down 11.07% to $147.12 billion; stablecoin market value increased by 5.47% to $193.8 billion.
See original
[Macroeconomic Briefing 1206]
1. Macroeconomic data:
1. U.S. Dollar Index: ultimately fell by 0.59%, closing at 105.69.
2. Government bond prices: The two-year U.S. Treasury yield rose slightly, closing at 4.150%, while the ten-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.175%.
3. Gold price: ultimately rose by 0.18%, closing at $2,643.33 per ounce.
4. WTI crude oil: WTI crude oil rose by 2.52%, closing at $69.71 per barrel.
5. Stock market: The Dow fell by 0.55%, the S&P 500 index fell by 0.19%, and the Nasdaq fell by 0.18%.
6. USDCNY: 7.26
7. Interest rate hike expectations: According to the Federal Reserve's rate monitor, the probability of maintaining rates at 4.50 - 4.75 in December is 24.8%, while the probability of lowering to 4.25 - 4.50 is 75.2%.
1. U.S. Dollar Index: ultimately fell by 0.59%, closing at 105.69.
2. Government bond prices: The two-year U.S. Treasury yield rose slightly, closing at 4.150%, while the ten-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.175%.
3. Gold price: ultimately rose by 0.18%, closing at $2,643.33 per ounce.
4. WTI crude oil: WTI crude oil rose by 2.52%, closing at $69.71 per barrel.
5. Stock market: The Dow fell by 0.55%, the S&P 500 index fell by 0.19%, and the Nasdaq fell by 0.18%.
6. USDCNY: 7.26
7. Interest rate hike expectations: According to the Federal Reserve's rate monitor, the probability of maintaining rates at 4.50 - 4.75 in December is 24.8%, while the probability of lowering to 4.25 - 4.50 is 75.2%.
See original
[Blockchain Briefing 1204]
I. Macroeconomic Data:
1. Dollar Index: Finally fell by 0.04%, closing at 106.31
2. Treasury Prices: The yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury bond slightly declined, closing at 4.1880%, while the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond slightly increased, closing at 4.228%
3. Gold Price: Finally rose by 0.18%, closing at $2643.33 per ounce
4. WTI Crude Oil: WTI crude oil rose by 2.52%, closing at $69.71 per barrel
5. Stock Market: Dow Jones fell by 0.17%, S&P 500 rose by 0.04%, Nasdaq rose by 0.4%
6. USDCNY: 7.39
7. Interest Rate Expectations: According to the Fed's rate observer, the probability of maintaining the rate at 4.50 - 4.75 in December is 26.3%, while the probability of lowering it to 4.25 - 4.50 is 73.7%.
1. Dollar Index: Finally fell by 0.04%, closing at 106.31
2. Treasury Prices: The yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury bond slightly declined, closing at 4.1880%, while the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond slightly increased, closing at 4.228%
3. Gold Price: Finally rose by 0.18%, closing at $2643.33 per ounce
4. WTI Crude Oil: WTI crude oil rose by 2.52%, closing at $69.71 per barrel
5. Stock Market: Dow Jones fell by 0.17%, S&P 500 rose by 0.04%, Nasdaq rose by 0.4%
6. USDCNY: 7.39
7. Interest Rate Expectations: According to the Fed's rate observer, the probability of maintaining the rate at 4.50 - 4.75 in December is 26.3%, while the probability of lowering it to 4.25 - 4.50 is 73.7%.
See original
[Blockchain Briefing 1203]
1. Macroeconomic Data:
1. US Dollar Index: Finally closed up 0.3%, reported at 106.38
2. Government bond prices: The 2-year US Treasury yield closed at 4.192%, and the 10-year US Treasury yield closed at 4.198%.
3. Gold prices: Finally closed down 0.45%, ending a four-day streak of slight gains, reported at $2638.57 per ounce.
4. WTI Crude Oil: WTI crude oil at $68 per barrel.
5. Stock Market: Dow Jones closed down 0.29%, S&P 500 index up 0.24%, Nasdaq up 0.97%.
6. USDCNY: 7.30
7. Rate hike expectations: According to the Fed's rate monitor, the probability of maintaining interest rates at 4.50 - 4.75 in December is 21.5%, while the probability of cutting rates to 4.25 - 4.50 is 78.5%.
1. US Dollar Index: Finally closed up 0.3%, reported at 106.38
2. Government bond prices: The 2-year US Treasury yield closed at 4.192%, and the 10-year US Treasury yield closed at 4.198%.
3. Gold prices: Finally closed down 0.45%, ending a four-day streak of slight gains, reported at $2638.57 per ounce.
4. WTI Crude Oil: WTI crude oil at $68 per barrel.
5. Stock Market: Dow Jones closed down 0.29%, S&P 500 index up 0.24%, Nasdaq up 0.97%.
6. USDCNY: 7.30
7. Rate hike expectations: According to the Fed's rate monitor, the probability of maintaining interest rates at 4.50 - 4.75 in December is 21.5%, while the probability of cutting rates to 4.25 - 4.50 is 78.5%.
See original
[Blockchain Briefing 1202]
1. Macroeconomic data:
1. Dollar index: Ultimately closed down 0.31%, at 105.70.
2. Treasury prices: The yield on two-year U.S. Treasury bonds fell below 4.2%, closing at 4.167%, while the yield on ten-year U.S. Treasury bonds also fell below 4.2%, closing at 4.174%.
3. Gold prices: Ultimately closed up 0.30%, at $2635.79 per ounce.
4. WTI crude oil: WTI crude closed down 1.06%, at $68 per barrel.
5. Stock market: The Dow fell by 0.3%, the S&P 500 fell by 0.38%, and the Nasdaq fell by 0.6%.
6. USDCNY: 7.28
7. Rate hike expectations: According to the Fed rate observer, the probability of maintaining rates at 4.50 - 4.75 in December is 31.7%, while the probability of a cut to 4.25 - 4.50 is 68.3%.
1. Dollar index: Ultimately closed down 0.31%, at 105.70.
2. Treasury prices: The yield on two-year U.S. Treasury bonds fell below 4.2%, closing at 4.167%, while the yield on ten-year U.S. Treasury bonds also fell below 4.2%, closing at 4.174%.
3. Gold prices: Ultimately closed up 0.30%, at $2635.79 per ounce.
4. WTI crude oil: WTI crude closed down 1.06%, at $68 per barrel.
5. Stock market: The Dow fell by 0.3%, the S&P 500 fell by 0.38%, and the Nasdaq fell by 0.6%.
6. USDCNY: 7.28
7. Rate hike expectations: According to the Fed rate observer, the probability of maintaining rates at 4.50 - 4.75 in December is 31.7%, while the probability of a cut to 4.25 - 4.50 is 68.3%.
See original
【Blockchain Briefing 1128】
I. Macroeconomic data:
1. US dollar index: It closed down 0.14% at 106.17
2. Treasury bond prices: Affected by the US Thanksgiving holiday, the US stock and bond markets will be closed for one day on November 28. Gold prices: It closed up 0.30% at $2,635.79 per ounce
3. WTI crude oil: WTI crude oil closed up 0.20% at $68.86 per barrel
4. Stock market: Dow Jones closed down 0.3%, S&P 500 fell 0.38%, and Nasdaq fell 0.6%
5. USDCNY: 7.23
6. Rate hike expectations: According to the Federal Reserve's interest rate monitor, the probability of maintaining interest rates at 4.50-4.75 in December is 31%, and the probability of cutting interest rates to 4.25-4.50 is 69%.
7. Cryptocurrency: Overall market value fell 0.9% to $3.3T, 24-hour trading volume fell 16.01% to $163.08B, and stablecoin market value rose 2.31% to 182.4B
II. ETF holdings data:
Updated on November 28:
10 #Bitcoin ETFs net flow: 789 $BTC (75.14 million USD)
9#EthereumETFs net flow: +13 $ETH (+475,000 USD)
III. Yesterday's macro news:
1. The SEC approved the first exchange that can conduct 5X23 hour trading.
2. ECB Governing Council member Villeroy: Inflation target may be achieved in early 2025. I do not rule out the possibility that interest rates will fall below the neutral rate in the future. There are good reasons for a rate cut in December.
3. Israeli military: The arrival of suspects was discovered in several areas in southern Lebanon, which violated the ceasefire agreement with Hezbollah. The Lebanese military said Israel has repeatedly violated the ceasefire agreement and violated its airspace.
4. Russian President Vladimir Putin said Russia is willing to engage in dialogue with the United States.
5. The Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs discussed with the West to lower the conscription age to 18.
6. Ukrainian officials said that Ukraine's energy facilities were attacked by Russia on a large scale, and at least 1 million people in three western regions faced power outages.
7. The OPEC+ online meeting was postponed to December 5. It is reported that OPEC+ is discussing postponing the increase in oil production in the first quarter of 2025.
8. South Korea said that North Korea once again released balloons to South Korea.
#BTCUSD #BitcoinETF #ETHUSDT #Crypto
I. Macroeconomic data:
1. US dollar index: It closed down 0.14% at 106.17
2. Treasury bond prices: Affected by the US Thanksgiving holiday, the US stock and bond markets will be closed for one day on November 28. Gold prices: It closed up 0.30% at $2,635.79 per ounce
3. WTI crude oil: WTI crude oil closed up 0.20% at $68.86 per barrel
4. Stock market: Dow Jones closed down 0.3%, S&P 500 fell 0.38%, and Nasdaq fell 0.6%
5. USDCNY: 7.23
6. Rate hike expectations: According to the Federal Reserve's interest rate monitor, the probability of maintaining interest rates at 4.50-4.75 in December is 31%, and the probability of cutting interest rates to 4.25-4.50 is 69%.
7. Cryptocurrency: Overall market value fell 0.9% to $3.3T, 24-hour trading volume fell 16.01% to $163.08B, and stablecoin market value rose 2.31% to 182.4B
II. ETF holdings data:
Updated on November 28:
10 #Bitcoin ETFs net flow: 789 $BTC (75.14 million USD)
9#EthereumETFs net flow: +13 $ETH (+475,000 USD)
III. Yesterday's macro news:
1. The SEC approved the first exchange that can conduct 5X23 hour trading.
2. ECB Governing Council member Villeroy: Inflation target may be achieved in early 2025. I do not rule out the possibility that interest rates will fall below the neutral rate in the future. There are good reasons for a rate cut in December.
3. Israeli military: The arrival of suspects was discovered in several areas in southern Lebanon, which violated the ceasefire agreement with Hezbollah. The Lebanese military said Israel has repeatedly violated the ceasefire agreement and violated its airspace.
4. Russian President Vladimir Putin said Russia is willing to engage in dialogue with the United States.
5. The Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs discussed with the West to lower the conscription age to 18.
6. Ukrainian officials said that Ukraine's energy facilities were attacked by Russia on a large scale, and at least 1 million people in three western regions faced power outages.
7. The OPEC+ online meeting was postponed to December 5. It is reported that OPEC+ is discussing postponing the increase in oil production in the first quarter of 2025.
8. South Korea said that North Korea once again released balloons to South Korea.
#BTCUSD #BitcoinETF #ETHUSDT #Crypto
See original
【Blockchain Briefing 1128】
One, Macroeconomic Data:
1. US Dollar Index: Finally closed down 0.75% at 106.07
2. Treasury Prices: The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield closed at 4.2640%; the 2-year US Treasury yield, more sensitive to monetary policy, closed at 4.2370%.
3. Gold Price: Finally closed up 0.30% at $2635.79 per ounce
4. WTI Crude Oil: WTI Crude Oil finally closed down 0.30% at $68.72 per barrel
5. Stock Market: The Dow Jones fell 0.3%, the S&P 500 index fell 0.38%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.6%.
6. USDCNY: 7.25
7. Interest Rate Expectations: According to the Federal Reserve Rate Monitor, the probability of maintaining the interest rate at 4.50 - 4.75 in December is 31%, and the probability of lowering it to 4.25 - 4.50 is 69%.
1. US Dollar Index: Finally closed down 0.75% at 106.07
2. Treasury Prices: The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield closed at 4.2640%; the 2-year US Treasury yield, more sensitive to monetary policy, closed at 4.2370%.
3. Gold Price: Finally closed up 0.30% at $2635.79 per ounce
4. WTI Crude Oil: WTI Crude Oil finally closed down 0.30% at $68.72 per barrel
5. Stock Market: The Dow Jones fell 0.3%, the S&P 500 index fell 0.38%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.6%.
6. USDCNY: 7.25
7. Interest Rate Expectations: According to the Federal Reserve Rate Monitor, the probability of maintaining the interest rate at 4.50 - 4.75 in December is 31%, and the probability of lowering it to 4.25 - 4.50 is 69%.
See original
[Blockchain Briefing 1127]
I. Macroeconomic Data:
1. Dollar Index: Ultimately rose 0.06%, closing at 106.90
2. Treasury Prices: The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.3100%; the two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to monetary policy, closed at 4.2580%
3. Gold Price: Ultimately rose 0.31%, closing at $2,632.79 per ounce
4. WTI Crude Oil: WTI crude oil ultimately fell 0.12%, closing at $68.93 per barrel
5. Stock Market: The three major indices rose collectively, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 indices reaching historical highs
6. USDCNY: 7.26
7. Interest Rate Hike Expectations: According to the Federal Reserve rate observer, the probability of maintaining the interest rate at 4.50 - 4.75 in December is 34.6%, while the probability of lowering it to 4.25 - 4.50 is 65.4%.
1. Dollar Index: Ultimately rose 0.06%, closing at 106.90
2. Treasury Prices: The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.3100%; the two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to monetary policy, closed at 4.2580%
3. Gold Price: Ultimately rose 0.31%, closing at $2,632.79 per ounce
4. WTI Crude Oil: WTI crude oil ultimately fell 0.12%, closing at $68.93 per barrel
5. Stock Market: The three major indices rose collectively, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 indices reaching historical highs
6. USDCNY: 7.26
7. Interest Rate Hike Expectations: According to the Federal Reserve rate observer, the probability of maintaining the interest rate at 4.50 - 4.75 in December is 34.6%, while the probability of lowering it to 4.25 - 4.50 is 65.4%.
See original
【Blockchain Briefing 1126】
I. Macroeconomic Data:
1. Dollar Index: Finally closed down 0.53%, reported at 106.92
2. Treasury Prices: The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.2790%; the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield, more sensitive to monetary policy, closed at 4.2900%
3. Gold Price: Finally closed down 2.96%, reported at $69.01/barrel
4. WTI Crude Oil: WTI crude oil finally closed up 1.58%, reported at $70.08/barrel
5. Stock Market: The Dow Jones closed up 0.99% to a new high, S&P 500 index rose 0.3%, Nasdaq rose 0.27%
6. USDCNY: 7.26
7. Interest Rate Hike Expectations: According to the Federal Reserve Rate Watcher, the probability of maintaining the interest rate at 4.50 - 4.75 in December is 38.3%, while the probability of a rate cut to 4.25 - 4.50 is 61.7%.
8. Cryptocurrency: Overall market value fell 2.42% to $3.23T, 24-hour trading volume rose 20.5% to $232.61B, stablecoin market value increased 3.4% to $181.09B
II. ETF Holding Data:
Updated on November 25:
10 #Bitcoin ETF Net Inflow: +5,132 $BTC (+489.16 million USD) #BlackRock inflow 5,164 $BTC (492.28 million USD), currently holding 492,623 $BTC (46.96 billion USD).
9 #Ethereum ETF Net Inflow: +23,788 $ETH (+82.02 million USD) #BlackRock inflow 30,292 $ETH (10.445 million USD), currently holding 610,430 $ETH (2.1 billion USD).
III. Major Macroeconomic News from Yesterday:
1. U.S. 2/10 Year Treasury Yield has inverted for the first time in two months.
2. Israel and Lebanon have reached an agreement on the terms to end the Israel-Hezbollah conflict; it is expected that the Israeli cabinet will approve the ceasefire agreement on Tuesday; the U.S. believes the agreement has not yet been reached but the differences have significantly narrowed.
3. Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei stated that a death sentence should be issued against Israeli leaders instead of an arrest warrant.
4. Military analysts claim that Ukraine launched a large-scale attack on the Russian Kursk region using foreign-made missiles. The Governor of Kursk stated that Russian air defense forces destroyed seven Ukrainian missiles.
5. The leadership of Germany's Social Democratic Party confirmed Scholz as the candidate for German Chancellor.
6. MicroStrategy purchased 55,500 Bitcoins for approximately $5.4 billion last week.
7. Sources: Trump's transition team is drafting an energy plan to promote natural gas exports and oil drilling.
#BTCUSD #Bitcoin #BitcoinETF #ETHUSDT #Crypto
I. Macroeconomic Data:
1. Dollar Index: Finally closed down 0.53%, reported at 106.92
2. Treasury Prices: The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.2790%; the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield, more sensitive to monetary policy, closed at 4.2900%
3. Gold Price: Finally closed down 2.96%, reported at $69.01/barrel
4. WTI Crude Oil: WTI crude oil finally closed up 1.58%, reported at $70.08/barrel
5. Stock Market: The Dow Jones closed up 0.99% to a new high, S&P 500 index rose 0.3%, Nasdaq rose 0.27%
6. USDCNY: 7.26
7. Interest Rate Hike Expectations: According to the Federal Reserve Rate Watcher, the probability of maintaining the interest rate at 4.50 - 4.75 in December is 38.3%, while the probability of a rate cut to 4.25 - 4.50 is 61.7%.
8. Cryptocurrency: Overall market value fell 2.42% to $3.23T, 24-hour trading volume rose 20.5% to $232.61B, stablecoin market value increased 3.4% to $181.09B
II. ETF Holding Data:
Updated on November 25:
10 #Bitcoin ETF Net Inflow: +5,132 $BTC (+489.16 million USD) #BlackRock inflow 5,164 $BTC (492.28 million USD), currently holding 492,623 $BTC (46.96 billion USD).
9 #Ethereum ETF Net Inflow: +23,788 $ETH (+82.02 million USD) #BlackRock inflow 30,292 $ETH (10.445 million USD), currently holding 610,430 $ETH (2.1 billion USD).
III. Major Macroeconomic News from Yesterday:
1. U.S. 2/10 Year Treasury Yield has inverted for the first time in two months.
2. Israel and Lebanon have reached an agreement on the terms to end the Israel-Hezbollah conflict; it is expected that the Israeli cabinet will approve the ceasefire agreement on Tuesday; the U.S. believes the agreement has not yet been reached but the differences have significantly narrowed.
3. Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei stated that a death sentence should be issued against Israeli leaders instead of an arrest warrant.
4. Military analysts claim that Ukraine launched a large-scale attack on the Russian Kursk region using foreign-made missiles. The Governor of Kursk stated that Russian air defense forces destroyed seven Ukrainian missiles.
5. The leadership of Germany's Social Democratic Party confirmed Scholz as the candidate for German Chancellor.
6. MicroStrategy purchased 55,500 Bitcoins for approximately $5.4 billion last week.
7. Sources: Trump's transition team is drafting an energy plan to promote natural gas exports and oil drilling.
#BTCUSD #Bitcoin #BitcoinETF #ETHUSDT #Crypto
See original
[Blockchain Briefing 1122]
I. Macroeconomic Data:
1. Dollar Index: Ultimately closed up 0.40%, at 107.06
2. Treasury bond prices: The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.4250%; the two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to monetary policy, closed at 4.3570%
3. Gold Price: Ultimately closed up 0.73%, at $2669.37 per ounce.
4. WTI Crude Oil: WTI crude oil ultimately closed up 1.58%, at $70.08 per barrel.
5. Stock Market: The Dow closed up 1.06%, the S&P 500 index rose 0.5%, and the Nasdaq slightly increased.
6. USDCNY: 7.25
7. Interest Rate Expectations: According to the Fed rate tracker, the probability of maintaining rates at 4.50 - 4.75 in December is 38.7%, while the probability of lowering them to 4.25 - 4.50 is 61.3%.
1. Dollar Index: Ultimately closed up 0.40%, at 107.06
2. Treasury bond prices: The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.4250%; the two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to monetary policy, closed at 4.3570%
3. Gold Price: Ultimately closed up 0.73%, at $2669.37 per ounce.
4. WTI Crude Oil: WTI crude oil ultimately closed up 1.58%, at $70.08 per barrel.
5. Stock Market: The Dow closed up 1.06%, the S&P 500 index rose 0.5%, and the Nasdaq slightly increased.
6. USDCNY: 7.25
7. Interest Rate Expectations: According to the Fed rate tracker, the probability of maintaining rates at 4.50 - 4.75 in December is 38.7%, while the probability of lowering them to 4.25 - 4.50 is 61.3%.
See original
【Blockchain Briefing 1121】
1. Macroeconomic data:
1. US Dollar Index: ultimately rose by 0.47%, reported at 106.65
2. Treasury bond prices: The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield was reported at 4.4090%; the two-year US Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to monetary policy, was reported at 4.3310%
3. Gold price: ultimately rose by 0.69%, reported at $2650.15/ounce
4. WTI crude oil: WTI crude oil ultimately fell by 0.38%, reported at $68.99/barrel
5. Stock market: Dow Jones closed up 0.3%, S&P 500 slightly up, Nasdaq down 0.1%
6. USDCNY: 7.246
7. Rate hike expectations: According to the Federal Reserve rate monitor, the probability of maintaining the rate at 4.50 - 4.75 in December is 46.7%, and the probability of lowering it to 4.25 - 4.50 is 53.3%.
1. US Dollar Index: ultimately rose by 0.47%, reported at 106.65
2. Treasury bond prices: The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield was reported at 4.4090%; the two-year US Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to monetary policy, was reported at 4.3310%
3. Gold price: ultimately rose by 0.69%, reported at $2650.15/ounce
4. WTI crude oil: WTI crude oil ultimately fell by 0.38%, reported at $68.99/barrel
5. Stock market: Dow Jones closed up 0.3%, S&P 500 slightly up, Nasdaq down 0.1%
6. USDCNY: 7.246
7. Rate hike expectations: According to the Federal Reserve rate monitor, the probability of maintaining the rate at 4.50 - 4.75 in December is 46.7%, and the probability of lowering it to 4.25 - 4.50 is 53.3%.
See original
【Blockchain Briefing 1120】
I. Macroeconomic Data:
1. US Dollar Index: Finally closed down 0.41%, at 106.23
2. Government Bond Prices: The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield closed at 4.4020%; the 2-year US Treasury yield, more sensitive to monetary policy, closed at 4.2910%
3. Gold Prices: Finally closed up 0.78%, at $2632.11 per ounce
4. WTI Crude Oil: WTI crude oil finally closed up 0.29%, at $69.25 per barrel
5. Stock Market: Dow Jones closed down 0.28%, S&P 500 index up 0.4%, Nasdaq up 1%
6. USDCNY: 7.24174
7. Interest Rate Hike Expectations: According to the Federal Reserve's interest rate observer, the probability of maintaining interest rates at 4.50 - 4.75 in December is 39.4%, while the probability of cutting rates to 4.25 - 4.50 is 60.6%.
8. Cryptocurrency: Overall market value rose 0.22% to $3.08T, 24-hour trading volume fell 9.33% to $180.8B, and stablecoin market value rose 2.9% to $175.69B
II. ETF Holdings Data:
Updated on November 19:
10 #Bitcoin ETF
Net Flow: +918 $BTC (+$84.74 million)
#Blackrock inflow 978 $BTC ($90.28 million) and currently holds 472,307 $BTC ($4.358 billion).
9 #Ethereum ETF
Net Flow: -20,121 $ETH ($62.56 million)
#Grayscale (ETHE) outflow 13,353 $ETH ($41.51 million) and currently holds 1,533,464 $ETH ($4.77 billion).
III. Major Macroeconomic News Yesterday:
1. Federal Reserve's Schmidt: A large fiscal deficit will not trigger inflation, as the Federal Reserve will guard against it, although this may mean higher interest rates.
2. The Bank of Japan will defend interest rate hikes in next month's policy assessment.
3. Equinor: Norway's largest oil field, Johan Sverdrup, has resumed production. The output of Johan Sverdrup is expected to reach two-thirds of its normal capacity by Tuesday morning.
4. Putin signs a decree allowing for broader use of nuclear weapons; Ukrainian forces first use the U.S. Army tactical missile system to strike Russian territory; Russia: The stance is that nuclear war will not occur; the U.S.: There is no reason to adjust nuclear posture due to Russia's decision.
5. International Atomic Energy Agency: Iran has agreed to stop producing near-weapons-grade enriched uranium.
6. The Russian Ruble exchange rate fell below 100.
7. Air pollution in New Delhi, India reached 'dangerous' levels.
#BTCUSD #Bitcoin #BitcoinETF #ETHUSDT
I. Macroeconomic Data:
1. US Dollar Index: Finally closed down 0.41%, at 106.23
2. Government Bond Prices: The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield closed at 4.4020%; the 2-year US Treasury yield, more sensitive to monetary policy, closed at 4.2910%
3. Gold Prices: Finally closed up 0.78%, at $2632.11 per ounce
4. WTI Crude Oil: WTI crude oil finally closed up 0.29%, at $69.25 per barrel
5. Stock Market: Dow Jones closed down 0.28%, S&P 500 index up 0.4%, Nasdaq up 1%
6. USDCNY: 7.24174
7. Interest Rate Hike Expectations: According to the Federal Reserve's interest rate observer, the probability of maintaining interest rates at 4.50 - 4.75 in December is 39.4%, while the probability of cutting rates to 4.25 - 4.50 is 60.6%.
8. Cryptocurrency: Overall market value rose 0.22% to $3.08T, 24-hour trading volume fell 9.33% to $180.8B, and stablecoin market value rose 2.9% to $175.69B
II. ETF Holdings Data:
Updated on November 19:
10 #Bitcoin ETF
Net Flow: +918 $BTC (+$84.74 million)
#Blackrock inflow 978 $BTC ($90.28 million) and currently holds 472,307 $BTC ($4.358 billion).
9 #Ethereum ETF
Net Flow: -20,121 $ETH ($62.56 million)
#Grayscale (ETHE) outflow 13,353 $ETH ($41.51 million) and currently holds 1,533,464 $ETH ($4.77 billion).
III. Major Macroeconomic News Yesterday:
1. Federal Reserve's Schmidt: A large fiscal deficit will not trigger inflation, as the Federal Reserve will guard against it, although this may mean higher interest rates.
2. The Bank of Japan will defend interest rate hikes in next month's policy assessment.
3. Equinor: Norway's largest oil field, Johan Sverdrup, has resumed production. The output of Johan Sverdrup is expected to reach two-thirds of its normal capacity by Tuesday morning.
4. Putin signs a decree allowing for broader use of nuclear weapons; Ukrainian forces first use the U.S. Army tactical missile system to strike Russian territory; Russia: The stance is that nuclear war will not occur; the U.S.: There is no reason to adjust nuclear posture due to Russia's decision.
5. International Atomic Energy Agency: Iran has agreed to stop producing near-weapons-grade enriched uranium.
6. The Russian Ruble exchange rate fell below 100.
7. Air pollution in New Delhi, India reached 'dangerous' levels.
#BTCUSD #Bitcoin #BitcoinETF #ETHUSDT
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