Michael_Liu93

Seeing the recent updates shared by Paris哥 yesterday was quite poignant, and I sincerely hope he can succeed in overcoming his challenges.

Investing and trading may be the hardest paths in this world, as the market changes rapidly every day, and everyone here has to engage in a fierce struggle with themselves, forcing themselves to transform in order to keep up with the market's changes.

The most taboo thing is to rely on a single method that has yielded results in the past, leading to path dependence without a mechanism for correction.

In the last round, those who profited from participating in the new projects of counterfeit brands are now continuing to invest in new counterfeit brands; Neiro and Act, who made money, are continuing to trade memes in the secondary market; those who achieved results through a construction strategy are still playing community memes; last year's unilateral market saw high leverage in contracts yielding results, and now, during this volatile market, they continue to roll over their positions.

If you haven't made money or have been losing money in the past month or two, it might be a good idea to stop and think about where the problem lies. If the rules of the game have changed and you haven't adapted yet, it's better to step back, think about how to approach the game moving forward, and only return to the table once you have clarity.

Short-term trading, in addition to observing the changes in open interest, trading volume, and fees to monitor the movements of market makers, actually watching the real-time naked candlestick charts is more direct. The more a single trader dominates the market, the easier it is to perceive these changes.

You can find a recently active altcoin and focus on the 1-minute chart for a day, especially during times of extreme volatility, to observe the frequency of price fluctuations. You can truly feel which price levels are being sold or accumulated by the main trader and which are being bought or sold by retail investors. Sometimes, you can even imagine the trader on the other end of the line pressing the buy and sell buttons against you. This feeling is hard to abstract into a phenomenon or characteristic, but I believe that traders who often watch real-time charts will have this market sense to some extent.

Mubarak, Broccoli714, BananaS31, TUT, the four coins that voted together to go for BN spot back then, it turns out that TUT and BananaS31, which had the least participation from retail investors, managed to rise during the lowest point of the altcoin market. These two have recently benefited from this trend.

Two basic conditions for manipulating meme coins: 1. Tight control over the supply, the fewer retail investors and locked positions on board, the better; 2. Sufficient short-selling counterparties. These two conditions determine the cost of pumping and the amount of funds that can be converted into 'support buying' through liquidation, so indeed, the worse the fundamentals of a token, the easier it is to manipulate it into a meme coin.

I will look for opportunities to short these two later.

Everyone has now become accustomed to the trading strategy of the demon coin rising continuously, with the last needle being pushed all the way down. Recently, the new operators' trading method is to crazily push down the last needle before it hits, then pull back to exhaust the short-selling power while attracting buying interest to catch the last needle. For example, the recent Anime before it was netted saw a crazy push down, and BMT has also started pushing down in the past couple of days. When encountering this, if you have a long position, you should look for opportunities to close it. If you want to open a short position, you should temporarily abandon the shorting strategy and use low leverage to short at highs; this is basically the tail end of the market.

The market situation is quite unhealthy, especially for Sol. It dropped to 95 in early April, showing overselling, rebounded nearly twice, and then continued to distribute. This is a standard cycle distribution pattern, similar to the last round. If you're looking to gamble on a second probe, you can buy around 110-120, but if it breaks, you must run fast. If it breaks 100 again, everyone can completely take a break in 2025 and go travel. 😅

When going long, you should seek the best assets to invest in, while conversely, when going short, you should look for the worst assets to short. If you do this correctly, it's a simple strategy.

The most taboo thing is:

After much difficulty, you find gold in a pile of garbage, and then you think the price of this gold is too high, so you decide to short it. Meanwhile, you see the nearby garbage dropping by 90%, and you think it's so cheap, so you decide to go long.

You may think the gold is expensive and choose not to buy, but I suggest you don't short it, because when liquidity returns, the funds will first rush to these gold assets among the garbage, whereas for the garbage, whether it’s 10 yuan per pound or 0.1 yuan per pound, if you are willing to buy, the project side will sell it to you.

Although if you time it well, the above methods could indeed make you money, trading is already difficult enough; if you can choose the simple strategy, why choose the difficult one?

These words are dedicated to friends who enjoy shorting BTC, Hype, Aave, Fartcoin, Sui, and those who love to pick up scraps to buy. 😅

My friends asked me how I usually find opportunities for secondary altcoins. In fact, there is also "sitting and sweeping the chain" in the secondary market. I guess the simplest way, which is also the most used by everyone, is to get up every day and check the exchange's gain and loss list, and then click in one by one to look at the data and charts to find opportunities. However, I usually use Coinglass more when I sit and watch. One screen refreshes Coinglass data in real time, and the other plays games and chats. I will briefly share my setup on Coinglass:

The above is my daily settings on Coinglass.

Basically, I look at OI (position changes), fees, price changes, and oi/market value ratios. Then, when I start working every day, I first scan the 24-hour OI changes vs price changes of at least the previous 20 from high to low. If there are abnormal values ​​here, it must mean that there are dealers or hot money making trouble, and these are your trading opportunities.

Then when I sit and watch the market, I put it on the 5-minute or 15-minute OI changes, and I will be notified immediately if there are changes. Here, we scan some dealers to take advantage of the rising prices when they come in to make trouble (usually, the market of a single coin starts quickly within a few hours, and the dealers pull up and open long positions at the same time).

Usually, the larger the ratio of OI/market value, the more focused the attention on the market, and this package is operated by dealers.

In addition to coinglass, tg turns on the reminders of Formula News and coinlisting, and important news and new coin launches that affect the market can be received in the first time.

The above scanning can ensure that you will see the opportunities in the first time, but how to operate them after scanning is a matter of opinion.

Resources:
coinglass: https://t.co/yi2QcG1OQN
Formula News: https://t.co/7aYRw68hIv
Coinlisting:

My friends asked me how I usually find opportunities for secondary altcoins. In fact, there is also "sitting and sweeping the chain" in the secondary market. I guess the simplest way, which is also the most used by everyone, is to get up every day and check the exchange's gain and loss list, and then click in one by one to look at the data and charts to find opportunities. However, I use Coinglass more when I sit idle. One screen refreshes Coinglass data in real time, and the other plays games and chats. I will briefly share my setup on Coinglass:
The above is my daily settings on Coinglass.

Basically, I look at OI (position changes), fees, price changes, and oi/market value ratios. Then, when I start working every day, I first scan the 24-hour OI changes vs price changes of at least the previous 20 from high to low. If there are abnormal values ​​here, it must mean that there are dealers or hot money making trouble, and these are all your trading opportunities.

Then when I sit idle and watch the market, I put it on the 5-minute or 15-minute OI changes, and I will be notified immediately if there are changes. Here, we scan some dealers to take advantage of the rising prices when they come in to make trouble (usually, the market of a single coin starts quickly within a few hours, and the dealers pull up and open long positions at the same time).

Usually, the larger the ratio of OI/market value, the more focused the attention on the market, and this package is operated by dealers.

In addition to coinglass, tg turns on the reminders of Formula News and coinlisting, and important news and new coin launches that affect the market can be received in the first time.

The above scanning can ensure that you will see the opportunities in the first time, but how to operate them after scanning is a matter of opinion.

Resources:
coinglass: https://t.co/yi2QcG1OQN
Formula News: https://t.co/7aYRw68hIv
Coinlisting:

Playing with secondary altcoins to make money, especially new coins, is essentially a predictive game of market manipulation. If you put yourself in the shoes of the project team that issues the coins and simulate the scenario once, you'll understand why shorting in 99% of cases is the optimal solution in this game.

"Rebirth: The Cryptocurrency Circle Doesn't Believe in Idealism"

My name is Lamb, a Stanford graduate, majoring in blockchain architecture and distributed systems. In my previous life, I was that genius boy who wanted to "change the world with code."

When I graduated, I turned down several offers from Silicon Valley VCs and jumped into Web3 entrepreneurship. After three years of hard work with my team, we launched a fair-start project with fully open-source contracts, even handing over governance contracts to the community. Before the launch, I eagerly wrote a 30-page security audit manual and a handwritten letter to the community.

I was really naive back then, foolish enough to believe that sincerity and effort could earn recognition.

Finally, the moment of the project's Token Generation Event (TGE) arrived. Within 5 minutes of launching, the market cap skyrocketed to 300 million USD. I excitedly called my partners, saying we were finally going to succeed!

Just as I was basking in the joy of "success," several things happened almost simultaneously:

Market Makers: The "market makers" who had reached a strategic partnership with us had originally told us they would only provide passive market-making and help stabilize depth and manage liquidity.

However, within the first 5 minutes of the token's launch, they used 500 wallets to execute a dual-direction wash trading on-chain, pushing the coin price above 300 million USD, creating the illusion of a huge spike; then, after the first batch of users fomo bought in, they sold off the chips we had lent out for passive market-making, leaving retail investors standing at the peak.

After selling off, they even spread the word in the community that "the project team is secretly dumping, and we also got hit."

I called to question them, and the other side calmly said, "Don't take it too seriously, brother. You don't understand market behavior; wait until the second phase, and we'll help you get back on track."

Exchanges: A week before the project launch, I received a call from a BD at Exchange X. He spoke sincerely, saying, "We are optimistic about your project," and emphasized, "The platform needs to support builders," also stressing, "We have internal consensus that your project has solid technology, doesn't scam people, and isn't a pump-and-dump.

We decided— to waive your listing fee and additionally give you a homepage banner position."

The BD told me, "You just need to give us some activity tokens for the exchange; this part isn't for us, it's just for the exchange activity to boost your visibility, all for the retail investors.

I initially refused because my original intention was to rely on genuine users and community consensus to launch, not to "create channels" or "do quotas"; this part of the allocation was originally meant for community airdrops.

But my partner said, "This is an opportunity; don't be too idealistic."

In the end, I compromised.

I transferred 5% of the tokens that should have been used for community airdrops to the internal control address they provided and left a message for the BD emphasizing, "This is for the exchange's activity, to be unlocked linearly over 3 months, and must not be dumped."

The other side replied with four words: "Rest assured, brother."

On the night of the project's launch, the Telegram group was packed, and the excitement shot straight to the Coinmarketcap homepage. I saw our token logo on the exchange's homepage banner.

But it seemed different from what the BD had promised me; this trading competition had a total of 50 project teams participating simultaneously, with a prize pool of 1000 USD.

I felt a slight unease, but since I was busy with TGE matters, I didn't think too much about it; perhaps the main activity the exchange promised me hadn't launched yet.

Our token skyrocketed 10 times within just 5 minutes of opening. As I proudly thanked supporters on Discord, the on-chain data suddenly exploded:

- In the 6th minute, the BD sent our activity tokens from the exchange's operational wallet through 9 disguised wallet addresses into the internal executive wallets, dumping massively.
- In the 7th minute, the community began to panic, "Someone is dumping," and the price instantly dropped by over 30%.

I called to inquire about the situation, and that BD responded coldly, "We cannot interfere with market behavior"; when I contacted the "market manager" who received the tokens, I was directly hung up on, immediately followed by a message on Telegram: "Don't be too idealistic; the market is like this."

Ironically, the exchange published a "market statement" the next day, saying the project team was "insufficiently prepared, and the contract was immature," and to "protect users," they would delist the trading pair.

I was dumbfounded. I wanted to clarify, but no one would believe this "builder" who had just been scammed. No KOLs spoke up, no media reported, and there was no place to seek justice.

At that moment, I realized that I wasn't brought down by a hacker attack or a technical loophole; I was personally crushed by someone I had told in the past not to dump the market, effectively sawing off my own faith.

I also considered whether I could use my own funds to pull the price back up, but the market makers and exchanges had already distributed nearly 15% of the tokens, and the two million USD we raised had already been mostly consumed during the development process. Trying to reclaim those tokens was essentially futile.

Three days later, our coin price plummeted from $1.3 to $0.013. As the price approached zero, the TVL that had come for airdrops also went directly to zero, and the community exploded, with messages all reading, "Scammers, get out!" My email was also filled with lawyers' letters from investors.

I wrote an apology letter on my blog, signed my name: "The responsibility is all mine; the project failed, but my original intention remains unchanged."

No one read it.

They only took screenshots of the transactions from the founder's wallet to the market makers and exchange wallets on-chain, then said, "See, it was indeed the founder who dumped and ran away."

That night, I closed my laptop and never opened it again.

At 3:46 AM, I looked at the zeroed coin price and smiled, a sharp pain in my heart.

My consciousness blurred, and the last thought was:

"Next time I launch, I will definitely be the first one to dump."

The trenches are quite good, and the largest investor in pumpfun is a well-known brand just before the release of the tokens. The live broadcast is also a direction that pumpfun plans to promote in the future. It’s quite obvious that there is an intention to push trenches towards the bankless direction of Solana. There have been signs of accumulation around 1.5 million, and the second phase has also started these past few days.

The only thing that makes me hesitant is that the few friends I know in the industry together hold no less than 10% of the chips, which makes me feel that the control over the chips is not particularly tight (could it also be an information bubble?). If this can really take off, it really depends on strong institutions and market liquidity, so it’s worth paying attention to.

I have always felt that the dilemma of altcoins is not a liquidity issue, but rather that the retail investors who have survived until now really don't believe in the 'story' anymore. Even if the control rate reaches 99%, if the fundamentals are not strong, spending money to create mindshare will not work; it will come down just as it was shouted up. The buying pressure generated by promotions may not even be enough to cover costs. But looking at Aave and Hyperliquid, these two are still as strong as if we are in an altcoin bull market. This is quite similar to the US stock market; no matter how abundant the liquidity is in the overall market, it rarely flows into small and mid-cap stocks.

During the last round of VC investments, the primary focus was on the project party's ability to list on exchanges, but this round, even if they are fortunate enough to get listed, these projects really do not have the capability to hold the price.

It's quite good. Whether it's the primary VCs or the secondary retail investors, in the end, it all comes down to the judgment of fundamentals. Three things are indispensable:
1. Does the product or service create value for users?
2. Is it capable of generating revenue and growth?
3. Can the token capture this revenue?

Recently, there have actually been quite a few explosive coins in the recent cycle for WCT, Anime, Mask, such as Loom, Hifi, YGG, Arpa, Lina, basically 2 every month. The manipulators take advantage of the concentrated attention in a bear market, and those who have never seen a volatile market tend to short when they see significant gains on that day. The manipulators rely on Upbit and Bithumb for spot trading to explode the shorts, and then when it's time to net in, they transfer to BN, OK, or Bybit to crash the market.

I remember back then, you could basically pull out over 100,000 (even larger positions were not dared to be opened, for fear of being targeted), and the strategy was particularly simple: find the Upbit wallets of market makers, set alerts, and whenever there was a large transfer out to BN or OKX, just short without thinking; within 5 minutes, it’s guaranteed to crash, and it would drop by 80%+...

Now the manipulators are more cunning, for instance, Anime, which was transferred out 4 days ago, has made 3 fake moves to crash the market in the last 3 days.

I still prefer the foolish manipulators.

You can look for opportunities to short the cookies, without going into specifics, here are a few logics:
1. Start staking to begin distributing airdrops (those who understand will understand), recently intensively advertising to find buyers
2. However, the contract open interest has been consistently decreasing, with each wave of upward movement, the market makers are looking for opposing positions to liquidate long positions
3. For example, during the spike on 5/26, the market makers liquidated a large number of long positions against the short positions.

The price of B for betting on the spot market expectations for long positions really has no cost performance; the operation of the market is quite poor, relying purely on open manipulation and spending money to drive the market. This operator is quite strong, so shorts should be careful.

I was wondering, if what happened with Sui yesterday occurred on Sol, would Sol's response be different?🤔

Cetus is in trouble, Sui's memes have all been taken.

A few days ago, I discussed with a friend why, after so many years in the cryptocurrency space, there hasn't been a fund like Mud Water that combines FUD and short selling. Such a fund would also have a positive impact on the industry.

Later, I thought that it seems there isn't much of a fundamental basis for FUD when it comes to altcoins. The issuance of altcoins itself is a model of data manipulation, attracting attention, and relying on exchanges. Everyone has become accustomed to this, and most of the chips are held by the project parties themselves or related interests, leaving retail investors with little to no chips that can be affected by FUD.

The factors that determine whether a new coin rises or falls after being listed are simply:
1. How many coins were given to the exchange
2. How many coins do market makers and various advisors and agencies have to sell
3. Whether the project party is willing to sell
4. Those who can drive up the price are mostly investors whose coins have not yet started to unlock; the chips can be controlled, and the project party decides to spend money to pump the price or collaborates with liquid funds to pump it together.

So those who short are quietly making money; the step of FUD is unnecessary and will only weigh down the short sellers, providing fuel for the opposing side to pump the price.

In fact, there are two types of people who lose a lot of money in contracts:
1. Not admitting mistakes and going down the wrong path to the end
2. Using too much leverage; you may have the right direction, but you leave no margin for error for yourself

Looking at those who have lost a lot of money, they all fall into these two categories. These two behaviors are inherently against human nature and must be restricted through rules.

When your empty mountain village is tightly clenched, the coin price is stable like USDT, but you know this guy should be unable to hold on much longer.

Follow moodeng, if moodeng is closing the net, please temporarily avoid flooding into secondary memes.