加密迈克尔_大V

Low market cap new coins without active market makers selling can still have some faith, about 3 days is enough!! $PARTI

Bitcoin faces a significant 'supply gap' in the range of $70,000 to $80,000. If it falls below $80,000, it may accelerate the decline. Let's see if it can hold tonight...

The number of short positions is decreasing... the blue circles are getting smaller.

Breaking 85,000 USD, the cumulative short position liquidation intensity of mainstream CEX will reach 744 million, such massive short-term short positions by the whale are quite dangerous...

Take a close look, the net total amount of CFTC CME cash settlement leverage for $ETH dropped to a historical low of -10,000 points from March 2022 to March 10, 2025.
Every time there is excessive short-term positioning, the market always comes back with a super reversal.
After the short-term peaks in August 2022 and June 2023, the price quickly rebounded, with a minimum rebound of 20%-30% or more. Now the short-term positioning has definitely reached a new low, with liquidity tightening and institutional entry, it's time for friends who are shorting to take a wave of losses 😢

Although the growth of the money supply in the United States has accelerated, with January's M2 growth reaching its highest level in nearly 30 months, the scale of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet is in the process of shrinking, primarily tightening to address inflation pressure.
It usually takes a few taps to be turned on simultaneously before we can wait patiently for the easing...

The Ultimate Script for 2025:
Expected US stocks to decline first ➡️ leading to a drop in cryptocurrency prices, ➡️ then expectations for interest rate cuts to rise, ➡️ and liquidity easing to drive cryptocurrency prices upward

Fully bullish on the ETH/BTC exchange rate! Not for any other reason, but for the faith in E Guardian! If the market rebounds later, ETH will definitely have higher elasticity than BTC. Historical Beta values show that the volatility of ETH is usually 1.2-1.5 times that of BTC, so the probability of the ETH/BTC exchange rate rising will be greater.

In simple terms, BTC has risen too much, and ETH has fallen too much.

CPI data lower than expected + optimistic sentiment in pre-market US stocks
Tonight BTC may rise to 84,600 (8-hour pullback high)

It may even reach 90,000!!!

Is it currently suitable for bottom-fishing? 🤯🤯

👎 Unfavorable factors:
MACD death cross, significant selling volume, K-line shows no obvious reversal signal, the current technical situation does not support bottom-fishing.
(Based on the hourly BTC K-line chart and 24-hour data volume and price)

📉 External factors:
Black Monday in US stocks, Nasdaq plunges 4%, Tesla drops 15%.
Mt. Gox transferred 11,833.6 BTC.
Trump currently has no cards to play.
Interest rate cut expectations may resume as early as May.
A large number of long positions are being liquidated, small institutions are all selling coins due to FUD.

❤️ If you can't bear the risk of shorting, at least you can be patient and wait a bit.

Don't mistake a decline for a buying opportunity.

The lack of bullish candlestick patterns, negative MACD, and insufficient buying volume to dominate the market indicate it's not the right time to enter and buy at the bottom.

Instead, selling opportunities are emerging, with strong sell signals present. High selling volume, bearish MACD crossover, and breaking below the 9 EMA suggest a potential downtrend.

The analyses of various technical analysis masters are as follows: A bull market is about to arrive.

I looked at ETH, and there is a basic data benchmark. If it does not break out with increased volume, continue to short ETH in the short term. 👇👇

ETH long position resistance: On-chain data shows that 2300-2350U is the previous high entrapment zone (500,000 addresses holding positions).

ETH support line: Whales are densely placing buy orders around 2050U (accounting for 15% of spot trading volume), and if it breaks down, we look at the psychological level of 2000U.

What you should do in a volatile market👇

🧠 Anti-human nature training:
Force yourself to check positions at 9:00/21:00 daily, delete trades at other times

⏰ APP to prevent impulsive actions:
If losses exceed 5%, refrain from opening new positions for the day, recite "Preserve capital first" 10 times

Patiently wait for the bull market's arrival, the time for action is already imminent.

Currently, we are only waiting for two signals. Once they arrive, we act without hesitation!

Signal 1: When the CME Fed Rate Watch Tool shows a probability of interest rate cuts > 70%, open a 2x coin-based long position (to avoid the risk of U depreciation).

Signal 2: When BTC breaks through 93,000 U and trading volume reaches 120% of the 30-day average, add a 3x U-based long position (chasing on the right side).

In recent days, various data has been released and meetings have been held. I always thought I was well-prepared, but the results were still unsatisfactory.
😭
Daily Must-Do: Intense Review!

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Mark 'Face-Slapping Moments', predict incorrect candlestick patterns (such as misjudging breakouts/breakdowns), and highlight key volume-price divergence points.

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Toolkit: Use TradingView's drawing tools for review, save historical versions for weekly comparison.

ETH's market sentiment is still at its lowest level this year. I think everyone understands the reason for bottoming out and rebounding... 🤷🤷🤷

Candlestick Master:

$SOL Hourly Chart, no significant buying patterns (Hammer or Morning Star) have been observed recently, but a slight rebound after the decline may form a "false bullish line" or "pregnant line", see 🈳

ETH hourly chart, consecutive bullish candles with relatively long bodies, this situation generally indicates a short-term upward movement. If there is no volume support or if it is close to a resistance area, it may lead to a 'false breakout' or a pullback. Currently, the trading volume is low, be cautious of a high probability of a decline tonight...

Looking at the funding rates, it feels like the market bulls have a certain advantage, but the sentiment isn't particularly high. It's likely that stable institutional funds are driving it, rather than retail FOMO. If the funding rates suddenly rise significantly to over 0.5% (especially for BTC and ETH) during Friday's meeting, it could be a signal for a major market movement.