枫叶学院小明D同学

1. I don't play around; every penny lost is a hard-earned lesson. Don't believe those online "make a million a month" fairy tales, and I despise those scammers who make a quick buck and run.
2. No riding on trends or feeding traffic; my account is open every day. I only share my trading strategies with those who understand; I don't cultivate noobs here. If you want to follow along, you need to present a "letter of commitment" first.
3. I only trust my own judgment; from building positions to stop-loss, it's all independent decision-making. Don't talk to me about copying trades or signals; nine out of ten so-called "masters" begging for followers are scams.
4. A system developed over more than 1,000 trading days allows for no luck. If you want to eat meat, you must endure the fluctuations; those with a fragile heart and prone to crying should back off early.
5. I can’t stand half-baked people pretending to understand. If you can’t sleep at night watching your account's ups and downs, I suggest you click exit in the top left corner—this space can't accommodate softies, only those who can stay up all night watching the market.
6. I dare to show my position details on the table, unlike some big influencers who constantly edit photos to deceive followers. If you're looking for a "big brother" to take you flying, save your breath; I control my own positions, and my stop-loss is more punctual than meal times.
7. No motivational nonsense here; the market only recognizes results, not tears. If you're looking for someone to coddle you while trading stocks, turn right and head to kindergarten. Bring your brain; I'll take you into battle; bring your sensitivity; turn left and find your mom.
8. To be clear: my table only seats two types of people. Either come with capital and judgment or bring a resilient heart. If you're suspicious and paranoid, don't come here; I don't play guessing games.
Remember: if you want to eat meat, you have to chew on bones. There are no myths of overnight wealth here, only honest delivery receipts. If you can keep up, join in; if not, then just watch—my table is only for those who dare to bet real money.

Federal Reserve's Next Interest Rate Decision:
- **Time**: May 7, 2025, at 2:00 PM (Eastern Time)
- **Meeting**: May 6-7 (two days)
- **Press Conference**: Federal Reserve Chairman Powell speaks at 2:30 PM (ET)
The decision may involve raising, lowering, or maintaining the rate. The Federal Reserve makes a total of 8 interest rate decisions each year.

Here are the sentences organized according to your request:
1. "The current circulating PI is only 1.8 billion; based on $0.57, the actual market value is only $1.1 billion. The displayed $4 billion is completely a false market value created by manipulators!"
2. "At its peak, the daily trading volume of the Sesame Exchange was over $1 billion, now it's only over $10 million. The trading volume has dropped by 99% and is still being dumped; the manipulation is too obvious!"
3. "Coins like Core, which can be mined on mobile phones, are worth $700 million. The user base and popularity of PI are dozens of times that; how is the market value only $1 billion? It's clearly a coordinated price suppression by manipulators!"
4. "Where did the $3 billion trading volume on the Sesame Exchange come from that day? The actual circulating amount is only 1.7 billion PI, clearly a case of manipulators trading among themselves to create false K-lines!"
5. "The monthly mapping amount is not an issue at all; any random MEME coin has a market value of $10 billion, and PI is only at $1 billion now, even less than Dogecoin? What a joke!"
6. "It's been six years, and the capital has no chips in hand. Now they are frantically suppressing prices to grab retail investors' coins; these manipulators are making it too obvious!"
7. "The upper wicks are all drawn by the manipulators; how can the actual selling pressure be that large? They are just creating panic to force retail investors to sell at a loss!"
8. "Based on the current actual circulating amount, PI rising to $10 would still be considered undervalued; the user base is clearly there!"
If you need to adjust the tone or add details, feel free to let me know.

#Bitcoin The 4-hour range has still not broken. After the contraction of the 1-hour range yesterday, the breakthrough demand was completed, and the downward break rebounded before reaching the effective support of the 4-hour.

Clearly, at this stage, after the price fell below 94,000, the buying power is strong. Although the market continues to maintain a range-bound trend, the bottom support is constantly being strengthened, and bullish sentiment is accumulating at the bottom and continuously rising.

Key attention is on tonight's GDP data and core PCE data to see if a breakthrough in the 4-hour range can be achieved.

Teacher San Shang issues coins, bans the daily area and opens the national area, specifically targeting national men. Chinese KOLs did not receive any money and are cursing wildly. Nationals are in control, and their own people are tricking their own people. Coins have been ambushed, the project party is controlling the market, you can't compete. Remember: if you can earn, then participate; if not, don't touch it.

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu recently made a tough statement, saying that Israel will 'destroy Iran's nuclear reactors and uranium enrichment facilities.' He emphasized that any agreement with Iran must include the complete dismantling of its nuclear facilities.
On April 8, 2025, Netanyahu warned in a video that if diplomatic efforts fail, Israel is prepared to take military action. This stance aligns with Israel's long-standing policy of viewing Iran's nuclear program as an existential threat.
Reports indicate that Israel has presented various military options to the United States, including airstrikes and special operations, to delay Iran's nuclear progress. Such actions could trigger a serious escalation of the regional situation.
The United States leans towards a diplomatic solution but has not ruled out military means. Currently, U.S.-Iran negotiations focus on limiting uranium enrichment and strengthening international oversight, but tensions continue to escalate.
As Israel's position hardens, the international community is paying close attention. Any military strike could lead to a large-scale conflict, further exacerbating the turmoil in the Middle East.

(1) According to the notice jointly issued by ten ministries of the country regarding further prevention and handling of risks in virtual currency trading speculation, domestic virtual currency trading platforms have been completely banned.
(2) It is considered a violation if overseas exchanges provide trading, exchange, and other services to domestic residents via the internet.
(3) Domestic personnel providing technical support to overseas exchanges may face criminal liability.
(4) Institutions or individuals assisting overseas exchanges in payment and settlement will also face legal accountability.
(5) Financial institutions are prohibited from providing account opening, fund transfer, and other services for virtual currency trading.
(6) Non-bank payment institutions are not allowed to participate in clearing and settlement of virtual currencies.
(7) Transactions of virtual currencies between individual citizens are not explicitly prohibited and fall under civil behavior.
(8) According to the principle of 'what is not explicitly prohibited by law is allowed,' personal transactions of virtual currencies generally do not constitute illegal activities.

1. Musk announced that SHIB will become one of the payment methods on the X platform, and this news quickly ignited the entire cryptocurrency market.
2. Looking back to 2021, a tweet from Musk about 'looking for Shiba Inu' once caused SHIB's price to surge, becoming the focus of the market.
3. However, as the market cooled down, SHIB's price fell significantly, leaving many investors trapped, and the hype gradually faded.
4. Today, Musk has once again taken action, incorporating SHIB into the X payment system, injecting new vitality into this long-dormant token.
5. Although SHIB has its own ecosystem, including ShibaSwap and various associated tokens, its actual application scenarios remain limited.
6. Musk's move may have multiple motivations: on one hand, to enhance the innovative appeal of the X platform, and on the other hand, it may involve personal investment strategies.
7. For investors, in the short term, market sentiment may drive SHIB's price up, creating trading opportunities.
8. But in the long run, SHIB still faces significant uncertainties, and investors need to carefully assess risks to avoid blindly following trends.

Cryptocurrency circle exposes connection between Sun Yuchen and Trump: Trump's team announced a private dinner on May 22, limited to the top 220 holders of TRUMP coin, causing TRUMP coin to surge 60% in just one hour. On-chain data shows that Sun Yuchen's associated wallet holds 1.17 million TRUMP coins (worth $14.3 million) and continues to increase its holdings. Recently, 27 wallets each purchased over 100,000 coins, with the largest single transaction reaching $24 million. Trump's team took a commission of $1.25 million from TRUMP coin transactions, raising questions about the monetization of political interests. TRUMP coin has become the 'sky-high ticket' for 2025, but the combination of politics and the cryptocurrency circle carries high risks, and investors need to be cautious.

**Impact of Initial Jobless Claims Data on the Cryptocurrency Market:**
If the number of unemployed exceeds expectations → The market bets on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates → The dollar weakens → Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (as risk/inflation hedge) may surge in the short term. Conversely, if the data is better than expected, the crypto market may face downward pressure.
**How to seize the opportunity to go long?**
1. **5 minutes after data release**: Observe the market's initial reaction. If the price breaks through key resistance levels and trading volume increases, consider a small position.
2. **Technical confirmation**: If a “bullish engulfing” pattern forms on the 15-minute chart or a MACD golden cross occurs, combined with favorable data, the probability of success is higher.
3. **Setting stop-loss**: Place the stop-loss at the recent low or the lower boundary of the pre-data fluctuation range to prevent false breakouts.
**Other key data affecting the cryptocurrency market:**
- **Non-Farm Payroll Data** (first Friday of every month): Directly reflects the strength of the U.S. economy and has high volatility.
- **CPI/PCE Inflation Data**: Determines the Federal Reserve's policy direction; cooling inflation = favorable for crypto.
- **Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decisions**: Rate hikes = bearish, dovish stance = bullish, and the dot plot forecast is more important.
- **U.S. Stock Market Trends** (especially Nasdaq): The cryptocurrency market has a high correlation with U.S. stocks, so keep an eye on technology stock performance.
**Brief Summary:**
Poor job data → cryptocurrency rises; go long after confirming a breakout following the data; also monitor non-farm payroll, inflation, Federal Reserve actions, and U.S. stocks.

Warren Buffett holds $300.87 billion in U.S. government bonds through Berkshire Hathaway, accounting for 4.89% of the bond market. This scale exceeds the Federal Reserve's $195 billion holdings.
Berkshire's bond investments are divided into two parts: $14.4 billion in cash equivalents maturing within three months and $286.47 billion in short-term government bonds. The total holdings account for 90% of its $334 billion in cash.
Buffett chooses government bonds because current stock market valuations are too high, while government bond yields are at 4.359%, providing a safe and substantial return. He has not made significant acquisitions for two years, waiting for market opportunities.
In contrast, Apple only holds $15.5 billion in government bonds, far below Berkshire's scale.
Analysts point out that Berkshire's size is too large, and small-scale transactions are unlikely to have an impact. Potential targets like privatizing Coca-Cola ($280 billion) or American Express ($130 billion) would still not exhaust its funds.
Buffett is waiting for a "lucrative opportunity," similar to the bailout deals during the 2008 crisis, but now requires a larger scale to make an impact on the market. Currently, he chooses to let government bond yields provide returns while patiently waiting.

**One Night Turnaround! Trump Makes Three Concessions, Igniting Surge in US Stocks/Crypto Market**
1. **Significant Tariff Reduction on China**: Trump reversed his stance, stating "145% tariffs are too high and will be significantly lowered," while the Treasury Secretary mentioned that the trade war is unsustainable.
2. **Federal Reserve Turmoil Settles**: Trump stated "no replacement for Powell," easing policy uncertainty.
3. **Russia-Ukraine Peace Surprise**: A peace plan will be announced within 3 days, causing global risk assets to soar.
**Market Logic**: Chaos = Opportunity! Trump's unpredictability becomes a catalyst, as hidden bullish signals appear amid the panic.
（**Trump's Three Concessions—Lowering Tariffs, Keeping Powell, Promoting Russia-Ukraine Peace—Result in Midnight Surge in US Stocks/Crypto Market, and the period of policy confusion is precisely the time for positioning.**)

Monday Market Turmoil:
- **U.S. Stocks Plunge**: Nasdaq (-3.5%), S&P 500 (-3.3%), Dow (-3.2%); the dollar index breaks through the 100/99/98 levels consecutively.
- **Safe-Haven Assets Surge**: Gold rises 3% to $3,430/ounce; BTC rises 2.7% in sync, hitting $88,000 before retreating to $87,000.
**Key Developments**:
1. **Policy Game**:
- Trump continues to pressure the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, accusing Powell of being slow to act, increasing market fears regarding policy independence.
- The market bets on a 75% chance of a rate cut in June (Citi forecasts a total cut of 125 basis points for the year).
2. **Crypto Trends**:
- **Institutional Accumulation**: MicroStrategy buys another 6,556 BTC (average price $84,700); Japan's Metaplanet holds 4,855 BTC.
- **On-Chain Signals**: Addresses holding over 1,000 BTC increased to 2,107, while smaller addresses continue to decrease.
- **Regional Premiums**: South Korean BTC premiums rise to 2%, possibly indicating a rebound.
3. **Regulation and Narrative**:
- Europe accelerates the digital euro to counter dollar stablecoins; several U.S. states push forward BTC reserve bills (such as Texas hearings and Arizona bill passing committee).
- Analysts believe BTC's pullback is manageable and not overheated, with a June rate cut potentially serving as the next catalyst for a rise.

Safe-haven sentiment boosts gold and BTC, while the dollar weakens; Trump pressures for rate cuts, and the market focuses on a policy shift in June; institutional accumulation + regulatory progress support the crypto market, with South Korean premiums releasing positive signals. If the Fed shifts to easing, it may trigger a new round of market activity.

Trump is quite an interesting person.
He keeps shouting "Make America Great Again", incredibly confident, not sure if he believes in himself or in America.
He is certainly not stupid, but he is too impatient, always wanting to make a big splash immediately, resulting in policies that change back and forth, making it feel like riding a roller coaster.
Some say he is the "contemporary Roosevelt", wanting to reform America, but unfortunately, the times are different, and the resistance is too strong.
It is still too early to judge him, whether he is a hero or a clown, we have to wait for history to decide.
On the surface, he seems like a political novice, but maybe he just wants to be that monkey causing a ruckus in "The Journey to the West", shaking up the old American system completely.
Who knows? Just sit back and watch.

Gold prices soar: 270 yuan in 2018 → 787 yuan in 2025 (today), nearly tripling in 7 years.
"Golden age in chaos" coming true? Global turmoil + risk aversion sentiment driving up gold prices, the signal has arrived.

Although the market conditions are not good this month, our returns are still very stable. Don't forget about risk management in pursuit of high returns and gains.

China returned a $55 million Boeing 737 MAX passenger plane due to the mutual tariffs between China and the United States (145% tariff from the U.S. to China, 125% tariff from China to the U.S.), resulting in a surge in costs. Boeing's stock price was affected, and China may suspend more orders, impacting its forecast of 9,000 new aircraft. The escalation of the trade war affects the global aviation industry, with several Boeing aircraft stranded in China and deliveries stalled.

#Bitcoin's price reversal during Powell's speech in the early morning was truly remarkable, turning directly from a decline to an increase without any sharp needle movement. Clearly, the sentiment guidance is very evident.

Currently, the 1-hour and 4-hour levels are strengthening again, and the range is continuously narrowing. There is a demand for a breakout in the technical aspect. Let's see if there is an opportunity to break through tonight, as it attempts to test the key daily resistance.

The short-term resistance at 85,800 on the 4-hour chart should be noted.

Stunning Reversal? Powell Refuses to Cut Interest Rates! US-China Rate Escape, Global Capital on the Verge of Collapse!

Powell is now in a dilemma—US prices are soaring, employment is booming, inflation is not decreasing, and he dares not ease interest rates. If he cuts, he fears prices will spiral out of control; if he doesn’t cut, he fears an economic collapse. He has become a 'gambler on a seesaw'.

Why is the Federal Reserve holding firm?

Inflation is still skyrocketing:

Egg prices up 58% year-on-year, rent rising over 8%, and the Federal Reserve's target is still 1 percentage point away, making it fundamentally cautious about taking action.

Job market is heating up:

Even factory cleaners can earn $25 per hour, companies are frantically competing for workers, wages are driving prices up in a vicious cycle.

If Powell eases now, he risks being labeled as the one who let 'inflation go out of control'. His term ends in May 2026, and in this year-plus, success or failure will determine his fate.

The US-China interest rate showdown is reaching a boiling point!

US benchmark interest rate 5.25%-5.5%, 10-year bonds 4.8%

China's LPR is only 3.45%, and 10-year government bonds are below 2.65%

This 2%+ interest rate differential acts like a magnet, attracting global capital toward US dollar assets.

The RMB continues to depreciate, capital is fleeing madly, and the People's Bank of China dares not easily loosen monetary policy. The 2024 wave of high-end restaurant closures in Shanghai is driven by capital outflow leading to a consumption breakdown.

Financial turbulence has fully erupted:

US stocks are overvalued, and tech stocks have severely shrunk.

The RMB has fallen below 7.26, hitting a two-and-a-half-year low.

Emerging markets are suffering severely: the Argentine peso plummeted 12%, and the Turkish lira has dropped 30% in a year.

Retail investor strategies:

Stay away from overvalued US stocks, don’t take the last baton.

Maintain RMB assets to prevent scrutiny over capital outflow.

Keep a close watch on policy turning points; if inflation breaks 3% or significant changes occur, it may be time to position for a rebound.

Conclusion:

The global interest rate game has entered a decisive moment. Will Powell end with a hawkish stance, or will he falter on the brink of economic collapse? In the US-China financial war, whoever lets go first will lose everything. The real storm has just begun.