In the short term, the potential for a correction is still open, although the medium to long-term trend remains bullish:
1. Current Market Conditions • As of July 25, 2025, BTC has dropped about 2.9% to a level of around $115,000–$116,000 following a post-rally decline. This pressure indicates liquidation pressure and negative sentiment, causing several altcoins to also fall  . • According to Citi analysts, demand from spot ETF inflows is now the main driver of BTC prices, with end-of-year price estimates ranging: • Base case: $135,000 • Bull case: $199,000 • Bear case: $64,000, if macro conditions drastically worsen .
2. Brief Technical Analysis • Many technical analysts like CryptoRank and CoinDCX highlight important support levels in the $104,000–$106,000 area. If this support holds strong, the bias remains upward. • Short-term resistance is in the $108,000–$110,000 zone, and a breakout above could open the path to $114,500–$125,000 .
3. Analyst Expectations and 2025 Projections • Some key predictions: • Tom Lee (Fundstrat) mentions a potential $250,000 by the end of 2025 . • Gerry O’Shea (Hashdex) estimates BTC could reach $140,000 this year . • Economic Times mentions a potential bull scenario up to $250,000, if the combination of inflation, institutional adoption, and macro context remains supportive . • Conversely, the most pessimistic prediction from Citi shows a downside to $64,000 if ETF inflows slow and macro conditions drastically worsen .
4. Significance of US Regulations • Recent crypto regulations like the Genius Act, Clarity Act, and Anti-CBDC Act create a clear legal framework in the US, supporting adoption and strengthening long-term sentiment for BTC .
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📉 Risk Scale – When Could BTC Drop? • If BTC fails to hold support around $115,000, there is a risk of retesting the $110,000–$112,000 area or even lower to around $104,000–$106,000. • However, if support is strong and ETF inflows remain high,
🔻 Factors That Can Cause BTC Prices to Drop: 1. Regulatory Pressure: • Large countries like the US, China, or the EU issuing strict regulations against crypto. 2. Large Liquidations in the Futures Market: • If many long traders face margin calls or liquidations, it could trigger a drastic drop. 3. Interest Rate Hikes by The Fed: • Investors tend to move out of high-risk assets (like crypto) into safe assets. 4. Bad Market Sentiment: • For example, due to news of hacking, major fraud (like FTX), or negative statements from global financial figures. 5. Massive Sell-offs by Whales (large holders $BTC BTC): • For example, Mt. Gox wallet, the US government, or institutions selling their reserves.