Mariel Lang
Quoted from @Mariellangsaez on X
0 Following
394 Followers
40 Liked
6 Shared
Posts
See original
If you're wondering:
What the heck happened today with the market, why is everything falling?
> Market at all-time highs, buzzing with happiness
> Government tries to sell 20-year bonds
> Few investors show up at the auction
> Wait… Why doesn’t anyone want to lend to the government?
> Bond yields jump to 5.1% due to lack of demand
> Remember that bonds = future expectations of the economy
> If big funds are avoiding lending to the government for 20 years at 5%, something smells bad
> The market clicks: "Risk-free rate at 5.1% = less reason to be in risky stocks"
> Calculation: "If companies have to refinance debt at these rates, their future earnings are worth less"
> Companies pay more for their debt = Earnings less money = Their stocks are worth less
> All algorithms are making the same calculation simultaneously
> DUMP EVERYTHING
> S&P 500 drops 86 points (1.45%) in minutes
> PLUS: Funds have been SELLING for MONTHS while retail investors keep buying
> The credit market gets nervous
> All this from a boring bond auction that went wrong
> When the piano note is out of tune, the whole symphony sounds bad…
> Is this just a scare or the first crack before something bigger?
> Remember that the biggest collapses start with seemingly insignificant events…
> Finally understand why "the bond market predicts the future"
> Having is a nice warning of the fragility of the market.
Time will tell if this is just a bump in the road or the beginning of the end.
The only certainty = Uncertainty.
And now more than ever, make risk management your best friend.
How do you see it?
What the heck happened today with the market, why is everything falling?
> Market at all-time highs, buzzing with happiness
> Government tries to sell 20-year bonds
> Few investors show up at the auction
> Wait… Why doesn’t anyone want to lend to the government?
> Bond yields jump to 5.1% due to lack of demand
> Remember that bonds = future expectations of the economy
> If big funds are avoiding lending to the government for 20 years at 5%, something smells bad
> The market clicks: "Risk-free rate at 5.1% = less reason to be in risky stocks"
> Calculation: "If companies have to refinance debt at these rates, their future earnings are worth less"
> Companies pay more for their debt = Earnings less money = Their stocks are worth less
> All algorithms are making the same calculation simultaneously
> DUMP EVERYTHING
> S&P 500 drops 86 points (1.45%) in minutes
> PLUS: Funds have been SELLING for MONTHS while retail investors keep buying
> The credit market gets nervous
> All this from a boring bond auction that went wrong
> When the piano note is out of tune, the whole symphony sounds bad…
> Is this just a scare or the first crack before something bigger?
> Remember that the biggest collapses start with seemingly insignificant events…
> Finally understand why "the bond market predicts the future"
> Having is a nice warning of the fragility of the market.
Time will tell if this is just a bump in the road or the beginning of the end.
The only certainty = Uncertainty.
And now more than ever, make risk management your best friend.
How do you see it?
See original
Good morning or good days?
The point is that it’s always a good day to have bitcoin :)
Are you living it or are you letting them tell you about it?
The point is that it’s always a good day to have bitcoin :)
Are you living it or are you letting them tell you about it?
See original
Good evening, I wish you all with my love-hate relationship with the Monte Carlos :)
The good: The 10,000 keeps similar distributions (only the granularity changes)
After all, nothing is certain but everything can be helpful!
Long live probabilities.
With positive returns in the long run, I am content.
The good: The 10,000 keeps similar distributions (only the granularity changes)
After all, nothing is certain but everything can be helpful!
Long live probabilities.
With positive returns in the long run, I am content.
See original
I can't write any words like:
Markets, trading, stocks, or bitcoin because my responses are automatically filled with bots...
The amount of SPAM is absurd. It makes interaction tedious.
If you are a real person, report yourself. Do you experience the same thing?
My tolerance is decreasing; there should be more control over this issue.
Markets, trading, stocks, or bitcoin because my responses are automatically filled with bots...
The amount of SPAM is absurd. It makes interaction tedious.
If you are a real person, report yourself. Do you experience the same thing?
My tolerance is decreasing; there should be more control over this issue.
See original
This June 1st we will see you in MADRID.
We are raffling off 1 ticket to attend in person at the RIU hotel.
This is going to be incredible.
They will be:
@sergidown
@TraderOscta
@sanglucci
@DayTraderPL
@kunal00
@edu_trades
Retweet this post with a quote and write: “I’m going” and fill out the registration here 👇🏻
https://t.co/rPH4VCZ1ua…
The winner of the raffle will be announced on Wednesday, May 21st during the YouTube Live at 12:30pm NY Time.
To claim your prize, you have to be there!
Don't miss it, and good luck :)
We are raffling off 1 ticket to attend in person at the RIU hotel.
This is going to be incredible.
They will be:
@sergidown
@TraderOscta
@sanglucci
@DayTraderPL
@kunal00
@edu_trades
Retweet this post with a quote and write: “I’m going” and fill out the registration here 👇🏻
https://t.co/rPH4VCZ1ua…
The winner of the raffle will be announced on Wednesday, May 21st during the YouTube Live at 12:30pm NY Time.
To claim your prize, you have to be there!
Don't miss it, and good luck :)
See original
This June 1st we will see you in MADRID.
We are raffling 1 ticket to attend in person at the RIU hotel.
This is going to be amazing.
The following will be present:
@sergidown
@TraderOscta
@sanglucci
@DayTraderPL
@kunal00
Retweet this post with a quote and write: “I’m going” and fill out the registration here 👇🏻
https://t.co/rPH4VCZ1ua…
The winner of the raffle will be announced on Wednesday, May 21st on YouTube Live at 12:30 pm NY time.
To claim your prize you have to be there!
Don't miss it, and good luck :)
We are raffling 1 ticket to attend in person at the RIU hotel.
This is going to be amazing.
The following will be present:
@sergidown
@TraderOscta
@sanglucci
@DayTraderPL
@kunal00
Retweet this post with a quote and write: “I’m going” and fill out the registration here 👇🏻
https://t.co/rPH4VCZ1ua…
The winner of the raffle will be announced on Wednesday, May 21st on YouTube Live at 12:30 pm NY time.
To claim your prize you have to be there!
Don't miss it, and good luck :)
See original
The S&P 500 is not far from returning to the highs of February, before the drop and chaos.
Now it seems like nothing happened...
But everything can change in a few months.
Will the seasonal pattern hold this year?
Leave your opinions, we will come back in June-September to see them.
"Sell in May and go away" is legendary.
Clearly, it is not good to rely solely on the seasonal pattern, but if there is a contrast with other factors/variables such as volatility and economic context, many things can be done.
It is important to get involved.
Everything is probability and risk.
Now it seems like nothing happened...
But everything can change in a few months.
Will the seasonal pattern hold this year?
Leave your opinions, we will come back in June-September to see them.
"Sell in May and go away" is legendary.
Clearly, it is not good to rely solely on the seasonal pattern, but if there is a contrast with other factors/variables such as volatility and economic context, many things can be done.
It is important to get involved.
Everything is probability and risk.
See original
Happy Labor Day to everyone!
And especially to all the fellow risk workers in the markets. You understand me.
Today I have a deep review of the Motion Sentinel system.
The automated strategy I use in American stocks.
In January, I made an adjustment with volatility filters, and it has survived Trump's stresstest; now I'm looking to optimize without entering overfitting (it's not easy)...
With daily entry and exit, one of the important points is the time window.
Testing how much could improve/influence eliminating the last hour of trading (14:00), since the hit rate is not the highest and the signals are fewer and noisier.
Still, I have doubts about whether it's better: "not to touch it because it works," contrasted with "there's always room for improvement."
Any advice? It is welcome.
In the same way, time will help me know if I make the right decision or if I need to take a step back.
Long live trial and error, as long as the risk is controlled :)
Ah, and the profit factor is 1.6, that's why it is profitable; I know that 30% is not the best hit rate, in fact, it used to be higher, but it is surviving, so something is something.
And especially to all the fellow risk workers in the markets. You understand me.
Today I have a deep review of the Motion Sentinel system.
The automated strategy I use in American stocks.
In January, I made an adjustment with volatility filters, and it has survived Trump's stresstest; now I'm looking to optimize without entering overfitting (it's not easy)...
With daily entry and exit, one of the important points is the time window.
Testing how much could improve/influence eliminating the last hour of trading (14:00), since the hit rate is not the highest and the signals are fewer and noisier.
Still, I have doubts about whether it's better: "not to touch it because it works," contrasted with "there's always room for improvement."
Any advice? It is welcome.
In the same way, time will help me know if I make the right decision or if I need to take a step back.
Long live trial and error, as long as the risk is controlled :)
Ah, and the profit factor is 1.6, that's why it is profitable; I know that 30% is not the best hit rate, in fact, it used to be higher, but it is surviving, so something is something.
See original
After a few diplomas, many pieces of advice requested, going in circles, and all paths pointing to the same place:
This month I decide to start the study path for the CMT with the goal of taking the level 1 exam.
I’ve thought about it for a long time, and the truth is that I would have liked to do it earlier.
But the best moment is always the present!
It will be months full of challenges where I will share the process transparently, and I hope it will help those who want to do it at some point.
I will keep you updated as I progress. I will make a mix of "best practices" between Optuma, a Chat trained to bombard me with questions and ensure that I understand deeply, and a lot of faith in God.
Any advice, prep courses, or study techniques?
It is appreciated! Day 1 of the rest of my life :).
This month I decide to start the study path for the CMT with the goal of taking the level 1 exam.
I’ve thought about it for a long time, and the truth is that I would have liked to do it earlier.
But the best moment is always the present!
It will be months full of challenges where I will share the process transparently, and I hope it will help those who want to do it at some point.
I will keep you updated as I progress. I will make a mix of "best practices" between Optuma, a Chat trained to bombard me with questions and ensure that I understand deeply, and a lot of faith in God.
Any advice, prep courses, or study techniques?
It is appreciated! Day 1 of the rest of my life :).
See original
Was the blackout in Spain caused by a hacking?
I don't know, but the betting market already has some volume waiting...
And 96% think it wasn't.
How quick speculation is.
What do you all say?
I don't know, but the betting market already has some volume waiting...
And 96% think it wasn't.
How quick speculation is.
What do you all say?
See original
What a day…
I went out for a run at noon, and upon returning, well, 8 hours without electricity in Madrid.
It definitely reminds me of the blackout week in Venezuela.
Incredible chaos, at least it was relatively “short.”
Does anyone know what happened?
I went out for a run at noon, and upon returning, well, 8 hours without electricity in Madrid.
It definitely reminds me of the blackout week in Venezuela.
Incredible chaos, at least it was relatively “short.”
Does anyone know what happened?
See original
"The shortest path is not always the fastest"
See original
Don't forget that no one can read the future…
Not the best fund, nor the best investor.
There is no 100% certainty in ANYTHING.
There are probabilities.
Sometimes they are fulfilled and sometimes they are not.
Even the least likely: It is possible.
That's why = Always control the RISK.
Not the best fund, nor the best investor.
There is no 100% certainty in ANYTHING.
There are probabilities.
Sometimes they are fulfilled and sometimes they are not.
Even the least likely: It is possible.
That's why = Always control the RISK.
See original
Good morning with Bitcoin around $94,000.
Is the chaos over?
I don't know about you, but for me, it's behaving like a champion.
The story tells itself. Live it, don't let them tell you about it.
Is the chaos over?
I don't know about you, but for me, it's behaving like a champion.
The story tells itself. Live it, don't let them tell you about it.
Translate
Es absurda la cantidad de personas que hacen trading con la mentalidad de:
Doble o nada.
Cuando;
Quedarte sin NADA es una posibilidad.
Estar a 1 operación de arruinarte es la mejor garantía de que efectivamente, te arruinarás.
No pasa, hasta que pasa.
Doble o nada.
Cuando;
Quedarte sin NADA es una posibilidad.
Estar a 1 operación de arruinarte es la mejor garantía de que efectivamente, te arruinarás.
No pasa, hasta que pasa.
See original
What happens when a simple action is done
See original
In the markets, it is more important to PROTECT yourself than to win.
If you don't survive, there is no profit.
If you lose too much, recovering is almost impossible.
But if you protect yourself and manage well, winning is a consequence.
Protect yourself. Understand the risk.
The sooner you normalize it, the better.
If you don't survive, there is no profit.
If you lose too much, recovering is almost impossible.
But if you protect yourself and manage well, winning is a consequence.
Protect yourself. Understand the risk.
The sooner you normalize it, the better.
See original
If something Bitcoin has demonstrated over time, it is that it rewards patience like no other asset.
The decreasing performance and lower volatility are just extra proofs that it is not going anywhere, but rather it has come to stay.
2+2 is 4 for those who know how to add.
The decreasing performance and lower volatility are just extra proofs that it is not going anywhere, but rather it has come to stay.
2+2 is 4 for those who know how to add.
Login to explore more contents