If you're wondering:
What the heck happened today with the market, why is everything falling?
> Market at all-time highs, buzzing with happiness
> Government tries to sell 20-year bonds
> Few investors show up at the auction
> Wait… Why doesn’t anyone want to lend to the government?
> Bond yields jump to 5.1% due to lack of demand
> Remember that bonds = future expectations of the economy
> If big funds are avoiding lending to the government for 20 years at 5%, something smells bad
> The market clicks: "Risk-free rate at 5.1% = less reason to be in risky stocks"
> Calculation: "If companies have to refinance debt at these rates, their future earnings are worth less"
> Companies pay more for their debt = Earnings less money = Their stocks are worth less
> All algorithms are making the same calculation simultaneously
> DUMP EVERYTHING
> S&P 500 drops 86 points (1.45%) in minutes
> PLUS: Funds have been SELLING for MONTHS while retail investors keep buying
> The credit market gets nervous
> All this from a boring bond auction that went wrong
> When the piano note is out of tune, the whole symphony sounds bad…
> Is this just a scare or the first crack before something bigger?
> Remember that the biggest collapses start with seemingly insignificant events…
> Finally understand why "the bond market predicts the future"
> Having is a nice warning of the fragility of the market.
Time will tell if this is just a bump in the road or the beginning of the end.
The only certainty = Uncertainty.
And now more than ever, make risk management your best friend.
How do you see it?