百倍不是梦
Open Trade
High-Frequency Trader
7.7 Years
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48 Followers
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Earnings Season Trading Tips
I would like to share a simple overview of the current Bitcoin trading logic; I really can't stand the salespeople in the square boasting every day.
This week we will close the monthly line, plus the non-farm payrolls and next week’s interest rate decision. In fact, these things are not important; they are just immediate market conditions. It has already been established that there will be no interest rate cuts in May, so there's nothing to see. Old Powell's speech is just about the economy being good, inflation moving towards the expected target, and not caring about Trump's political economy. There will be no interest rate cuts due to tariffs or stock market declines; they are not in a hurry to cut rates and will continue to observe inflation. It’s all the same old story. The recent expectation for rate cuts is still in June, and it’s still a matter of probability, not set in stone. At least an 80% expectation for rate cuts is needed for it to be stable.
This week we will close the monthly line, plus the non-farm payrolls and next week’s interest rate decision. In fact, these things are not important; they are just immediate market conditions. It has already been established that there will be no interest rate cuts in May, so there's nothing to see. Old Powell's speech is just about the economy being good, inflation moving towards the expected target, and not caring about Trump's political economy. There will be no interest rate cuts due to tariffs or stock market declines; they are not in a hurry to cut rates and will continue to observe inflation. It’s all the same old story. The recent expectation for rate cuts is still in June, and it’s still a matter of probability, not set in stone. At least an 80% expectation for rate cuts is needed for it to be stable.
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Once the tariffs came out, the global market plummeted, and various panic theories emerged, claiming that it was comparable to the 312 incident. Investors need to have their own judgment.
MSTR rose against the trend last night, and Bitcoin has already decoupled from the Nasdaq. Although I am involved in cryptocurrency trading, I have never considered Bitcoin to be something substantial; it does not possess commodity attributes. The entire cryptocurrency market is only worth over two trillion dollars, which is still less than Apple. Bitcoin, with a market value of over a trillion dollars, still ranks among global assets, so let's simplify it: consider Bitcoin as a stock without a physical entity. If it's a stock, it has its own independent market conditions. The US stock market started to decline after interest rate cuts last December, while Berkshire has been rising, so independent analysis is necessary.
Currently, I believe the market is simply fluctuating, ranging from 81 to 88, occasionally spiking; it rises on good news and falls on bad news—these are real-time market conditions. A bull market will still require significant positive news and sustainable interest rate cuts.
The above are personal views, meant to give some hope to those who have suffered significant losses. Ignore the talk of breaking 70,000 or reaching 120,000; if you encounter such statements, just block them out. Those thoughts are mindless and will only affect your judgment.
MSTR rose against the trend last night, and Bitcoin has already decoupled from the Nasdaq. Although I am involved in cryptocurrency trading, I have never considered Bitcoin to be something substantial; it does not possess commodity attributes. The entire cryptocurrency market is only worth over two trillion dollars, which is still less than Apple. Bitcoin, with a market value of over a trillion dollars, still ranks among global assets, so let's simplify it: consider Bitcoin as a stock without a physical entity. If it's a stock, it has its own independent market conditions. The US stock market started to decline after interest rate cuts last December, while Berkshire has been rising, so independent analysis is necessary.
Currently, I believe the market is simply fluctuating, ranging from 81 to 88, occasionally spiking; it rises on good news and falls on bad news—these are real-time market conditions. A bull market will still require significant positive news and sustainable interest rate cuts.
The above are personal views, meant to give some hope to those who have suffered significant losses. Ignore the talk of breaking 70,000 or reaching 120,000; if you encounter such statements, just block them out. Those thoughts are mindless and will only affect your judgment.
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The dollar index falls, gold falls, US stocks fall, US bonds fall. The familiar recipe and familiar taste are coming.
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You are now at a negative premium, BTC daily has not touched the lower track. The US stock market plummeted after hours, Apple once fell over 7%, and the American panic has not yet been vented, so why build a bottom.
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On April 2nd, US time, which is April 3rd, Beijing time, the tariffs will start to be implemented, meaning the negative impact will be fully realized and the positive impact will begin. Before that, there will still be a wave of sharp declines to lure short sellers. In the days leading up to that, there will actually be a slight rebound to stabilize prices, but we will need to see how the US stock index futures perform on Monday.
Current reference points:
1. C2C prices have slightly increased, indicating that capital is entering the market, and there is a sentiment to buy the dip.
2. The price of USDC/USDT has started to decline.
3. XRP shows signs of stabilization.
Although there will be a rebound in the next couple of days, it still feels a bit lacking. The reason for choosing XRP as a reference point instead of other cryptocurrencies is that during the last round of increases, XRP reacted the quickest and surged the fastest, while it was also the first to stall and start correcting downward. Additionally, ETH currently has no reference value and feels more like a bomb that could explode at any moment.
For aggressive investors, it is advisable to enter in the next couple of days, while conservative investors should wait a couple more days. Personally, I will wait another two days before trading $BTC $XRP .
Current reference points:
1. C2C prices have slightly increased, indicating that capital is entering the market, and there is a sentiment to buy the dip.
2. The price of USDC/USDT has started to decline.
3. XRP shows signs of stabilization.
Although there will be a rebound in the next couple of days, it still feels a bit lacking. The reason for choosing XRP as a reference point instead of other cryptocurrencies is that during the last round of increases, XRP reacted the quickest and surged the fastest, while it was also the first to stall and start correcting downward. Additionally, ETH currently has no reference value and feels more like a bomb that could explode at any moment.
For aggressive investors, it is advisable to enter in the next couple of days, while conservative investors should wait a couple more days. Personally, I will wait another two days before trading $BTC $XRP .
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The fifth wave didn't wait for me, the fourth wave washed me dead on the beach, died from bottom fishing.
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In a day, you can't bounce out two or three thousand points. A group of salespeople looking at bullish and bearish trends, what the heck. It's clear that the overall direction is upward, with negative news, a four-hour wedge market, what’s there to watch? Both going long and short can make money.
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Still can't be greedy, I could have made this yesterday, but today it's still the same amount. It's hard to play with small funds 😦
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Current personal experience sharing on contract trading
In this round, I entered with a principal of 3000 U, and after 12 days, the net profit was over 5300. Then I got carried away, heavily invested, and encountered a sudden market surge, resulting in losses of over 4700 in two days. After that, my small fund operations were in complete disarray. Currently, I'm slowly returning to 1500 U. To summarize my experience, feel free to refer to it if interested.
First, after making money, prioritize returning the principal instead of increasing the position to earn more. Currently, my account has no principal, only pure profit. After years of experience in trading stocks, forex, gold, and cryptocurrencies, the reality is that increasing funds leads to losses. Everyone has different amounts of capital they can operate with, so find a suitable range for your operations, and withdraw any excess. This is why many people find their funds stuck at a certain number that never increases, and they end up losing money later.
First, after making money, prioritize returning the principal instead of increasing the position to earn more. Currently, my account has no principal, only pure profit. After years of experience in trading stocks, forex, gold, and cryptocurrencies, the reality is that increasing funds leads to losses. Everyone has different amounts of capital they can operate with, so find a suitable range for your operations, and withdraw any excess. This is why many people find their funds stuck at a certain number that never increases, and they end up losing money later.
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Silly, the previous high was 852, set a take profit at 853, ultimately closed at 845, got greedy
BTCUSDC
Long
Closed
PNL
+374.10
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Traded for six days, lost on one day, and made profits on the other five days. The two days over the weekend were terrible, so I will take a break for now and review. Watching the trends of ETH and Bitcoin over the weekend shows that there is no such thing as long or short when trading; the price points are not that important, what matters is timing.
Personal opinion: BTC and ETH have not bottomed out for contracts, and there isn't much difference for spot trading. The bull market has a long way to go, and if you can afford it, you can buy at the bottom. ETH will definitely break 2000$ETH $BTC
$ETH
Personal opinion: BTC and ETH have not bottomed out for contracts, and there isn't much difference for spot trading. The bull market has a long way to go, and if you can afford it, you can buy at the bottom. ETH will definitely break 2000$ETH $BTC
$ETH
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Why not buy in at 128
Action and knowledge are unified, SOL reaches the second buying point, continue to buy 150 pieces, and wait for the next buying point 128.
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Bottom fishing also starts after prices begin to rise; this drop hasn't even been checked yet, and you're already bottom fishing, you must have lost your shorts.
✨SOL
Buy signal: Buy
Energy column: about to break
Fast and slow lines: Golden cross
Summary: It belongs to the left side bottom-fishing, and it is necessary to sell when it rebounds to the yellow diagonal line above! Make a good stop loss! Otherwise, it may be a knife
#Strategy增持比特币
$SOL
Buy signal: Buy
Energy column: about to break
Fast and slow lines: Golden cross
Summary: It belongs to the left side bottom-fishing, and it is necessary to sell when it rebounds to the yellow diagonal line above! Make a good stop loss! Otherwise, it may be a knife
#Strategy增持比特币
$SOL
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Exploded
Fear 😱
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$BTC 1. Historically, April has been a bear market most of the time. The monthly line has been rising for seven consecutive years, which is a bit scary.
2. With the halving and the increase in mining difficulty, small miners will sell coins to pay electricity bills if they cannot bear it.
3. Many Renminbi are stored in exchanges, so exchanges are behaving badly. This is no longer the case twice.
4. Many people have expectations for ETFs. Institutions are rich, but they are not the kind of people who are stupid and have too much money. The cost of institutions is generally more than 30,000. If you continue to add positions, the average price will rise too much, so you need a certain amount of money. Trading
The bull market is not over yet, and the bear market is not over either. This time the decline will be lower than the last time. It is possible to start with a 5, but it will not be a pin. Therefore, spot prices can be appropriately bought at the bottom. Really large amounts of money will be liquidated in the next pin plunge.
2. With the halving and the increase in mining difficulty, small miners will sell coins to pay electricity bills if they cannot bear it.
3. Many Renminbi are stored in exchanges, so exchanges are behaving badly. This is no longer the case twice.
4. Many people have expectations for ETFs. Institutions are rich, but they are not the kind of people who are stupid and have too much money. The cost of institutions is generally more than 30,000. If you continue to add positions, the average price will rise too much, so you need a certain amount of money. Trading
The bull market is not over yet, and the bear market is not over either. This time the decline will be lower than the last time. It is possible to start with a 5, but it will not be a pin. Therefore, spot prices can be appropriately bought at the bottom. Really large amounts of money will be liquidated in the next pin plunge.
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$FRONT Stupid stuff, just play with it yourself
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$FRONT What are the meanings of inserting a needle?
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