I would like to share a simple overview of the current Bitcoin trading logic; I really can't stand the salespeople in the square boasting every day.
This week we will close the monthly line, plus the non-farm payrolls and next week’s interest rate decision. In fact, these things are not important; they are just immediate market conditions. It has already been established that there will be no interest rate cuts in May, so there's nothing to see. Old Powell's speech is just about the economy being good, inflation moving towards the expected target, and not caring about Trump's political economy. There will be no interest rate cuts due to tariffs or stock market declines; they are not in a hurry to cut rates and will continue to observe inflation. It’s all the same old story. The recent expectation for rate cuts is still in June, and it’s still a matter of probability, not set in stone. At least an 80% expectation for rate cuts is needed for it to be stable.
Talk about why there has been a decline in the mornings these past few days. Although Bitcoin is not completely linked to the Nasdaq, there is still a certain degree of correlation. This period is when tech companies in the US stock market are announcing their earnings reports. This morning, SMCI's earnings report was below expectations, leading to a significant drop, which dragged down the NVDA Nasdaq futures and Bitcoin.
After explaining the reasons, let’s discuss where to enter and exit. It’s actually quite simple; just observe and calculate—there's no need to draw lines or use indicators. Currently, Bitcoin is fluctuating at a high level, not going up or down significantly, so the amplitude won't be large. The current Bitcoin pullback range is 1700-1800 points, so calculating from the previous high, 954-17=937, the entry point is between 936-937. It absolutely cannot be 935, so those salespeople hanging at 935 can be directly blocked. How to calculate the exit? Look up, 1200-1300, then find whole number points, so it should be around 95000. It can't be that precise, so keep a margin for error, around 100 points up and down. Therefore, the entry is at 938 and the exit is at 948 or 950. Generally, choose even numbers, not odd ones; the reason may be based on market intuition, just observe more.
Calculations cannot be precise down to the unit, so allow for redundancy. Look at the previous high on the hourly chart recently; don't look too far. Small fluctuations are between 1700-1800 points, and the daily amplitude is also around 1700-2000 points. For larger fluctuations, replace 1700 with 2700, applicable for weekends (the volatility is too small on weekends; two days count as one), or during a downtrend. Enter after a spike, or sometimes just wait for four hours of a bearish candle; enter at the fourth bearish candle or the next hour's spike bullish candle.
Similarly, tomorrow morning Microsoft, META, and Qualcomm will announce their earnings reports, and a decline is also expected. The market conditions will be similar to this morning, so the same strategy can be applied. The only difference is that tonight's PCE may have some delayed effects, determining whether the range will move up or down.
