币圈黑玫瑰

Chris Waller, a board member of the Federal Reserve, recently issued a strong warning, stating that the current tariff policy in the U.S. will become the 'culprit' for driving up domestic inflation, and its impact on price increases may peak in the second half of this year. This statement has attracted widespread attention from the market and the economic community.
Waller emphasized that there is significant uncertainty in U.S. trade policy, and the continuously increasing tariffs are having serious negative impacts on the economy. On one hand, higher tariffs lead to rising prices of imported goods, which then translates to the domestic consumer market, pushing prices up. On the other hand, frequent changes in tariff policies suppress consumer spending and severely disrupt business operations.

The wave of deregulation in South Korea's cryptocurrency market: Non-profit organizations take the lead, bringing new opportunities to the cryptocurrency industry!

As South Korea gradually relaxes restrictions on institutional cryptocurrency trading, the non-profit organization World Vision Korea has become the first non-retail investor to sell cryptocurrency assets after the ban was lifted, attracting widespread attention from the market. This Sunday, the organization sold 0.55 Ethereum (ETH) on the well-known local exchange Upbit, amounting to approximately $1,396.5. This transaction was officially announced by Upbit's parent company, Dunamu, marking the first significant action in South Korea's cryptocurrency market following the policy easing.

Dear friends in the cryptocurrency community, quickly get your spirits up! The Bitcoin market may be about to face a tumultuous change! This is not alarmist; the abnormal signs on the market have quietly emerged, as if silently issuing a warning.

Looking back at last night's news market, the scene was even more exciting than a Hollywood blockbuster. Negative news bombarded like a series of cannon fire, yet the price of Bitcoin stubbornly held its ground, refusing to drop. The negative signals from policy and the support funds were secretly in a tug-of-war; on the surface, everything seemed calm, but in reality, there were turbulent undercurrents. The game between the bulls and bears has reached a fever pitch, and there must be something fishy behind this abnormal phenomenon.

Tonight, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is about to be revealed, which is undoubtedly the focus of the market. The speculators may use this news to stoke the market, driving price fluctuations. However, investors must remain clear-headed and vigilant against the potential risks of a spike followed by a drop.

At two o'clock in the morning, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision. The market generally expects that there will be no rate cut this time. For Bitcoin, there are many resistance levels above. From a technical analysis perspective, around 97800, 97900, and 98500 are relatively reasonable positions for placing short orders. Considering various factors, it is likely that Bitcoin will struggle to effectively break through the 100,000 mark. If the market experiences a false breakout and the price quickly falls back, then a downward trend may begin. In this case, the key support levels below are at 91500, 90600, 89000, and 87516. Investors can consider entering long positions near these support levels.

Attention, friends in the crypto world! At 2 AM on May 8th, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision will be announced, which is undoubtedly the most watched major event in the current crypto space! In my opinion, there are likely only two outcomes:

The first scenario is that if the Federal Reserve does not cut interest rates in May, the market has already priced in this expectation. If they really do not cut rates, Bitcoin will likely face a correction, and the digital currency assets we hold may be at risk of shrinking.

The second scenario is that if the Federal Reserve directly cuts interest rates, then the price of Bitcoin will skyrocket like it's on a rocket! Just thinking about the market conditions at that time gets people excited.

US President Trump, in a recent speech aboard Air Force One, once again thrust US-China trade relations into the spotlight. He claimed that the US is currently negotiating trade agreements with multiple countries, including China, with the core objective of the negotiations with China being to reach a 'fair' trade agreement.

China has been the main target of US tariff policies in recent years. In response to the US's tariff threats, China has taken strong countermeasures, imposing tariffs of up to 145% on certain American goods, demonstrating its firm resolve and tough stance. However, Trump does not seem to be backing down. He revealed that he might consider lowering tariffs on China in the future, and officials from both sides are currently engaged in intensive negotiations on multiple issues.

The market in May is unpredictable! A major drop might quietly approach! I have always believed that the market in May hides crises, and this judgment has never wavered. The recent rise in the market seems prosperous, but in reality, it is like the calm before a storm, laying the groundwork for future declines. My previous analyses have been nearly validated one by one. Friends who follow me can review my earlier posts and see how accurately my views were predicted at that time. Don't be easily swayed by those so-called 'authoritative' voices! BlackRock, Trump, and other major institutions are all shouting 'bullish in the long term', claiming to have hoarded a large amount of goods. But will these people easily take losses and exit? Of course not! Perhaps one day, they will suddenly pull a 'reversal', crashing the prices to the bottom, leaving you in panic to cut losses, and then they will drive the prices up sharply, completely trapping you and rendering you immobile. Don't let these ambiguous messages mislead you anymore! Instead of staring at those vague data every day, it’s better to calm down, focus on improving your trading skills, and cultivate a keen intuition for the market. This is the true weapon for dealing with market fluctuations!

On May 7, 2025, the global financial markets will face a shocking 'superstorm' - the Federal Reserve's rate decision day! On this day, the eyes of global investors will be focused on Fed Chairman Powell, as his words could trigger violent fluctuations in the stock, bond, and cryptocurrency markets.
Meeting Agenda: A two-day event with global attention

• Meeting Time: May 6 to 7, two consecutive days of intense meetings, members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will engage in heated discussions about the direction of interest rates.

• Decision Announcement: May 7 at 14:00 (Eastern Time) / 18:00 (UTC), the global financial market will hold its breath for this historic moment.

In the investment market, many people always hold the mindset of 'after a significant rise, there should be a fall,' as if the market trends completely align with their subjective assumptions. However, this way of thinking is often just 'retail investor mentality' and lacks practical analytical basis. Currently, there are no obvious short-selling opportunities in the market; blindly guessing a decline will only lead to passivity.

So, what are the truly reliable short-selling signals? In fact, there are only two relatively certain conditions:

First, if the price line falls below 95,400 again, this could be a key turning point. This indicates that the market trend may have changed and the previous upward momentum has weakened; investors need to closely monitor this signal.

Yesterday, Bitcoin and Ethereum experienced intense fluctuations under the impact of news, with prices dropping significantly, but began to rebound and recover in the later half of the night. From a technical analysis perspective, the current market situation is complex, and investors need to cautiously seize opportunities.
I. Technical Analysis of Bitcoin
From the 4-hour level, Bitcoin's Bollinger Bands show a downward opening trend, indicating short-term downward pressure. The RSI indicator is currently in a neutral to weak range, suggesting a slight lack of buying power in the market. At the same time, the KDJ indicator has formed a death cross and has not yet fully recovered, which shows a clear divergence from the previous market view of 'short volume shrinking turning into long'. Investors need to closely monitor whether Bitcoin's price can effectively break through the key resistance level of $95,500. If it can successfully break through, it will strongly validate the effectiveness of the bullish trend; conversely, if it fails to break through, the market may continue to maintain a consolidation pattern.

In the world of cryptocurrency, thrilling stories unfold every day. But recently, ALPACA's drama can definitely be called the 'annual blockbuster'! From the delisting announcement to the $3 billion bloodbath, the operations behind it are simply astonishing, and those who see through it can only shake their heads and smile bitterly.

The beginning of the matter seemed unremarkable. Binance suddenly announced it would delist ALPACA, a digital currency viewed by many as a 'scam coin'. As soon as the news broke, the market was in an uproar, and investors believed ALPACA's good days were over. However, just when everyone thought it was about to plunge into the abyss, ALPACA suddenly surged against the trend, skyrocketing by 150% in just a few hours! Short sellers were stunned: it was about to be delisted, who would still dare to buy? Wasn't this self-sabotage?

The recent Bitcoin market has shown a unique trend, as if testing the market's bottom line but never truly breaking below it. When the BTC price approaches $94,000, there always seems to be a mysterious force pulling it back quickly above $95,000. This phenomenon reveals a signal: in this round of rising market, there are still a large number of investors yet to enter. Once the price drops slightly, the bottom-fishing army rushes in, contrasting sharply with the previous situation where BTC lingered in the $80,000 to $85,000 range for 1 to 2 months with no one paying attention. This reflects that most investors are always willing to enter only after seeing a clear upward trend, while very few dare to layout in advance based on conviction.

A storm of crypto regulation is brewing quietly in the United States, with the new SEC Chair taking office and a new bill targeting Puerto Rico's crypto tax loopholes. Various signs indicate that the rules for digital currencies are being completely rewritten!

The New Navigator Has Arrived:
On April 21, Paul Atkins was officially sworn in as SEC Chairman, making a strong comeback with a 'crypto-friendly' aura. He previously served in the Bush administration and has always maintained an open attitude towards financial innovation; this return is seen as a long-awaited turning point for the crypto industry.

A New Era Begins:
The former leader was criticized for a 'law enforcement priority' strategy that stifled innovation, leading to several major lawsuits that caused market turmoil. Atkins not only openly supports blockchain projects but also includes crypto platforms and tokenized companies in his investment portfolio; his stance is clear and inspiring!

After Bitcoin surged to a high of $100,000, it entered a correction mode, leaving many investors confused and torn, as they began to speculate whether this was a brief pause in a bull market or the end of the trend.

First, let’s analyze the key factor of Bitcoin's halving mechanism. As is well known, Bitcoin’s production is halved every four years. Historical data shows that after previous halvings, the market usually sees a real price peak about 1 to 1.5 years later. Based on this timing, the end of 2025 to early 2026 is more likely to be the peak moment for the market, and the current correction seems more like a halftime break. Comparing the magnitude of the current correction, it has only decreased by 30%. Looking back to 2017 and 2021, Bitcoin experienced significant corrections of 45% and 53%, respectively. In contrast, the current correction is not exaggerated. Additionally, the miner's cost line is currently around $78,000. If the price truly falls to this level, miners will be reluctant to sell their Bitcoin due to cost considerations, which will, to some extent, provide price support, acting like a natural moat.

On April 21, the cryptocurrency market experienced a major breakthrough. Bitcoin prices soared, successfully breaking through the $87,000 mark, setting a recent high. Meanwhile, Ethereum also performed well, with prices rebounding above $1,600, while SOL surged strongly, with prices breaking $140. Additionally, other altcoins also showed slight upward trends. According to Coinglass data, the total liquidation amount of open contracts across the network in 24 hours reached $220 million, of which the liquidation amount for short positions was $142 million.

At the global macroeconomic level, the market is facing a complex and changing situation. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the tariff measures of the Trump administration are jointly influencing the direction of global markets. Both the U.S. stock market and the cryptocurrency market are under significant pressure. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell recently made it clear that the market's expectation that the Federal Reserve would intervene to calm volatility might be mistaken. When asked whether he would intervene in a sharp decline in the stock market, Powell responded, 'I will not do that, but I can explain why.' Under Powell's hawkish remarks, the Trump administration continues to pressure for interest rate cuts, but the specific timing for such cuts remains uncertain.

As the market continues to evolve, many investors are now focusing on the direction of this bull market. Some believe that the 'end' of the bull market seems to be quietly approaching. If the market begins to slow down, it may be difficult for the market peak to last past May, and it could even arrive early in late April.

However, investors need not panic too much. Even if the bull market peaks, it is unlikely that Bitcoin will experience a crash of 50% or even 80% as it has in the past. Nowadays, Bitcoin is no longer just a 'speculative coin' in the hands of retail investors, but has become a 'hard currency' for Wall Street, ETF institutions, publicly listed companies, and even some countries as asset reserves. More and more wealthy individuals and businesses are inclined to include it in their asset allocations, and its four-year appreciation logic is gradually being accepted by the market.

Standard Chartered's latest research report shows that if the U.S. passes new cryptocurrency-related regulations this year, the stablecoin market is expected to exceed $2 trillion by 2028, directly triggering a $1.6 trillion buying spree in U.S. Treasuries! Currently, the total market capitalization of stablecoins is about $230 billion, primarily linked to U.S. short-term government bonds. Standard Chartered analyst Jeff Kendrick predicts that after the new regulations are implemented, stablecoin issuers will purchase $400 billion in U.S. Treasuries each year, enough to absorb all short-term bonds issued by the U.S. government during the same period.

A new leading player in the U.S. Treasury market emerges