Yesterday, Bitcoin and Ethereum experienced intense fluctuations under the impact of news, with prices dropping significantly, but began to rebound and recover in the later half of the night. From a technical analysis perspective, the current market situation is complex, and investors need to cautiously seize opportunities.
I. Technical Analysis of Bitcoin
From the 4-hour level, Bitcoin's Bollinger Bands show a downward opening trend, indicating short-term downward pressure. The RSI indicator is currently in a neutral to weak range, suggesting a slight lack of buying power in the market. At the same time, the KDJ indicator has formed a death cross and has not yet fully recovered, which shows a clear divergence from the previous market view of 'short volume shrinking turning into long'. Investors need to closely monitor whether Bitcoin's price can effectively break through the key resistance level of $95,500. If it can successfully break through, it will strongly validate the effectiveness of the bullish trend; conversely, if it fails to break through, the market may continue to maintain a consolidation pattern.
II. Interpretation of On-Chain Data
In terms of on-chain data, the net inflow of spot ETFs has decreased by 23% from its peak, indicating a slowdown in market capital inflow. Meanwhile, the open interest has increased, but the funding rate remains in negative territory, reflecting the cautious sentiment of main funds. If the market lacks sustained volume support, once Bitcoin's price breaks through $96,000, it may trigger a concentrated counterattack from the bears, and investors should be wary of this risk.
III. Daily Level Analysis
From the daily level, Bitcoin's MACD indicator has formed a golden cross, which is a positive signal indicating that there is certain upward momentum in the market. However, the high-level KDJ death cross at the 4-hour level and the RSI top divergence create a resonance risk, suggesting a risk of a short-term market pullback after a spike. Overall, for intraday operations, a low buy strategy is recommended, and investors can go long in the $93,200 to $93,700 range, with a target price looking towards $95,500.
IV. Market Analysis of Ethereum
Ethereum's trend is similar to Bitcoin's and has also been impacted by news. From a technical perspective, Ethereum is facing certain pressures at the 4-hour level as well. However, a MACD golden cross signal has appeared at the daily level, indicating some potential for upward movement. Investors can go long in the $1,750 to $1,780 range, with a target price looking towards $1,850.
V. Summary
The current cryptocurrency market is at a critical turning point, with the trends of Bitcoin and Ethereum affected by various factors. Investors need to closely monitor changes in technical indicators and make comprehensive judgments based on on-chain data and market sentiment. In terms of operations, a low buy strategy is recommended, but risk control should also be emphasized to avoid blindly chasing highs.
Follow me for timely daily sharing of wealth codes, and remind everyone to buy low and sell high! Be a practitioner of foresight in the cryptocurrency circle!
