Lord William BAYC

When will the selling pressure from Mentougou be exhausted? Is the death knell of short sellers about to ring?

I haven’t tweeted for a few days, and a large group of KOLs have started short selling again; they probably won’t stop until they lose all their fans.
The selling pressure from Mentougou is what everyone is concerned about at present. Many people are worried that it will be like when the German government sold the currency, and $BTC will be smashed to the ground. Let me analyze it below:

1. When will the selling pressure from Mentougou be exhausted?

1. On July 16, the Mentougou address began to transfer out; $BTC fell a little;
2. So far, half of the complainants have been paid; $BTC fluctuated in the range of 63-65K;
3. The remaining big heads are in Kraken, and Kraken promised to pay them within 1-2 weeks, that is, to pay them within next week;
Kraken received 45,000 BTC; according to the internal community survey of Mentougou victims, in view of the large number of positive factors in the future, it is expected that only about 30% will be sold after receiving them;
Next, Kraken's operations and balance changes can also be seen on the chain (as shown below). If there are any abnormalities, I will update you again.
Summary: Driven by positive factors and continued net inflows of ETFs, the selling pressure of Mentougou is loud but small, and the impact is not great, and the negative factors will be fully paid out next week.

2. Is the death knell of the shorts about to ring? The last chance to run away?

1. The negative news of Mentougou will be realized next week;
2. Ethereum ETF is expected to start trading next Tuesday; the selling pressure of Grayscale Trust is expected to be absorbed by other ETFs;
3. The correction of US stocks is a seasonal correction in the election year, and it is expected to be adjusted and resume rising at the end of July, that is, next week;
4. On July 26, PCE data is expected to be positive, which will boost risky assets;
5. On July 27, Trump participated in the#BTC2024conference and spoke; Trump’s current influence and ability to bring orders are limitless!
6. At the September Federal Reserve meeting, the market predicts a 101% probability of a rate cut.
Summary: Before July 26, it is the last chance for short sellers to run away, otherwise it will be a liquidation.

3. Countermeasures:
1. Do not short BTC;
2. If Kraken's selling pressure brings a small correction, you can go long in the 60-62K range; don't be afraid of the 58.6K gap;
3. If Grayscale Trust brings selling pressure after the Ethereum ETF goes online, you should accumulate $ETH positions in the golden pit;
3. For new fans who have not followed us before and fully invested in spot at 55K, it is recommended to fully invest in spot at the end of July, and refer to my previous tweets for the currency ratio.

55K full position BTC spot profit, did you miss out? How to deal with it?

After the Trump shooting incident on Sunday, the probability of his election increased greatly. $BTC quickly pulled up and broke through the downward trend line and MA20;
The market since July 5th is very strange, and the bottom is grinding. Although we bought the bottom spot at 55.1K, the long orders in the 57-59 range were stopped;

After reading Twitter, many people missed out. If you also missed out, it’s not your fault. Because it’s difficult to buy the bottom this time:

1. $BTC BTC broke through on Sunday, the volume is not large, and the gap is below;

2. Trump’s incident was sudden, and there was no opening of US stocks, so it’s difficult to judge the degree of good news;

3. Most KOLs are bearish on BTC to below 50,000 or even 40,000;

4. Germany has just sold out, and Mentougou has not started selling;

5. The market sentiment has been very pessimistic in the past ten days;

6. BTC did not step back at the daily level, and it directly reversed.

So, forgive yourself.
The difference between left-side and right-side bottom-picking:
1. For left-side bottom-picking, the purchase price will be relatively low, but you need to bear the risk of a lower bottom and the pain of being stuck;
2. For right-side bottom-picking, the purchase price is relatively high, the stop loss is easy to set, and the risk is relatively low, but the buying opportunity is short, it is easy to catch up, and you will suffer the pain of being empty;
According to statistics, the psychological pain of selling at a high price and missing out is greater than the pain of being stuck;

Why the market is so weird:
1. The market is short of funds, and there are only local bulls before the interest rate cut;
2. The main force does not have the ability to bring many people on board; so it must be deep smashed and quickly pulled to wash the market;

Countermeasures:
1. Take the spot we bottom-picked, at several BTC resistance levels of 65K, 69K, and 71K, I will pay attention to the small-level patterns, and if there is a decline, I will stop some profits respectively;
2. The contract is waiting for a retracement test, or other small-cycle opportunities, with a good stop loss and choose the opportunity;
3. Mainly do favorable varieties, btc (Bitcoin Conference at the end of the month), $ETH (Ethereum ETF), $SOL (next year's ETF, September upgrade), etc.

4. Copycat: I will buy back some of the ones that break through the downward trend line and stand on the daily MA20, and plan ahead for the copycat season in October;

5. Mentougou is expected to be redeemed within 2 months. On the day of redemption, I will stop part of the profit and pay attention to the market pressure.

I added some of the US stocks recommended yesterday at the opening. $COIN / $CLSK / $MARA / $RIOT / $TNA / $DPST have good profits. Congratulations to the friends who followed.

Trump's chances of winning the election have greatly increased. How to plan for potential positive US stocks?

In yesterday's shooting incident, Trump was extremely lucky and performed bravely, turning danger into safety, as if assisted by God.
After the incident, Trump's chances of winning the US election quickly rose to 70%, and Biden's chances of winning fell to 18%.
Which US stocks will benefit and become Trump's victory concept stocks?
1. Trump's Trump Media Technology Group (DJT);
2. Trump's ally, Musk's Tesla (TSLA);
3. Stocks that benefit from Trump's loose monetary policy and weak dollar policy, iShares Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM/TNA), Regional Bank Stock ETF (DPST);
4. Bitcoin mining stocks (CLSK/MARA/RIOT) and $BTC that benefit from the "First Bitcoin President" declaration of "Let the remaining bitcoins be mined in the United States" Related ETFs (IBIT/ARKB);
5. Banks and consumer finance companies that benefit from the relaxation of Wall Street capital liquidity rules: JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Bank of America (BAC);
6. Financial institutions that benefit from reduced merger review activities: Goldman Sachs (GS), Morgan Stanley (MS);
7. Natural gas producers that benefit from regulatory relaxation: Cheniere Energy (LNG), ExxonMobil (XOM), ConocoPhillips (COP);
8. Insurance companies that provide broader health insurance coverage: UnitedHealth Group (UNH), Humana (HUM);
9. Semiconductor manufacturers that benefit from Trump's trade protection policies: Intel (INTC), Texas Instruments (TXN), Applied Materials (AMAT);
10. Fuel vehicle manufacturers and steel manufacturers that benefit from Trump's indifference to environmental protection and emphasis on local employment priority, Ford (F), General Motors (GM), Nucor Steel (NUE), Steel Dynamics (STLD);

Next week, I will allocate additional positions $INTC $DJT $TSLA $TNA $DPST $F $CLSK $MARA $RIOT
I believe this Trump concept US stock portfolio will have good returns.
Act at the right time and follow the trend!

$BTC will bottom out and rebound! 6 indicators show that it is already in the bottom area!
1. The 4-hour MACD predicted yesterday has a golden cross, and a triple bottom divergence has formed;
2. The NUPL indicator of short-term holders fell below the 0 axis, showing the low point of the bull market correction;
3. The MVRV indicator of short-term holders fell below the 0 axis, which is a bull market bottom-fishing signal;
4. The BTC supply profit ratio indicator fell to 82.1%, close to the level at 57K;
5. The fear and greed indicator fell to a low of 53, close to the level at 57K;
6. The moon phase indicator, since the new moon day, today is the full moon day, and the probability of rising on the full moon day is more than 65%;
US stocks and macro aspects:
1. The US stock market has a small correction on Friday's triple witching day, see if it can stabilize;
2. Tomorrow's key data is the PCE on June 28, I predict it will be positive;
Conclusion:
The above 6 indicators show that it is currently in the bottom area, and BTC will start to rebound!

Did $BTC stop falling on Triple Witching Day?

From yesterday to today, $BTC has a slightly stronger trend than the US stock market. Pay attention to whether BTC can effectively recover the previous low and whether it can form a triple 4-hour MACD bottom divergence.

The market is short of water, and this $BTC "water buffalo" has no pattern, which is tormenting people!

The US stock market has reached new highs every day, and there are music and dance every night, but the cryptocurrency circle is pessimistic and fearful to the extreme;
$BTC has fluctuated back and forth for a few days, hitting the stop loss of long orders;
The altcoins generally fell by more than 30%, but fortunately $CHZ ran fast. The altcoin project parties and hot money are extremely sensitive, and they will frantically ship and smash the market at the slightest sign of trouble;
Why is it so?

Referring to the previous tweet, the current market water has flowed to chips and AI; the cryptocurrency circle is no longer favored, and can only wait hard for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates and release water to become bullish;
What is driving the cryptocurrency market?

It is harvesting! It is a double kill of long and short! It is the reverse transaction of emotions and funding rates;
The prey of project parties, market makers, and exchanges is your small melons and two dates, which will make you chase high prices with FOMO, let you sell at a loss in fear, and let you blow up your long and short positions to squeeze out their profits;

Therefore, there will be no big copycat season and no general rise before the Fed releases water;

How to deal with it?

1. Be cautious and make configurations according to my position allocation suggestions;

2. Don't give up, don't chase high prices, don't sell at a loss, and kill the main force;

3. Be patient. If the CPI announced in July is good, everything will come back; even if it is bad, it will rise again in the fourth quarter;

4. Summarize lessons, review, sort out and optimize your own trading system;

5. If the market drops to around 60,000, I will share how to go long again.

In my system, a double buy signal $BTC at the daily level appears!

Congratulations on the Ethereum spot ETF being approved by the SEC! It is expected to be launched in one or two months

1. Among the full positions, 15% are $ETH , with a cost of less than 3,000 and a current profit of more than 30%; congratulations to those who have followed!

2. Adjust the ETH year-end price target made on January 1 from 5,000 to 7,000.

3. From the current price of 3810-3200, open a 1x ETH currency-based long order in five batches, with a stop loss of 3100; steadily respond to the downside risks brought by the correction of US stocks;

4. The passage of the FIT-21 bill in the House of Representatives, and Trump and Biden's acceptance of Crypto donations in succession indicate the growing political momentum of cryptocurrency; more and more factions among American voters hope to elect politicians who understand cryptocurrency and are willing to respect and support the development of this technology in the United States; this is a big positive in the medium and long term!
Be patient! Steady profit!

The first target of BTC head and shoulders bottom predicted on Twitter 5 days ago, 71K, has been reached!

The 0.5x coin-based long order opened at 63K took a profit of 20%, pushing the loss to 66K;

Benefiting from the potential Ethereum ETF, the market developed rapidly, but the chain showed that the balances of $BTC and $ETH on the exchange rose rapidly, so part of the profit was taken;

Next key events:

1. Nvidia's financial report on Wednesday will determine whether the US stock market will pull back;

2. The final decision of the SEC on the Ethereum ETF on Thursday will determine whether the $ETH market will continue;

Stay tuned and prepared for trading!

Tips on how Binance can protect the interests of precious users - break-even margin!

In the past six months, Binance Launchpool has listed projects with a total valuation of nearly 200 billion US dollars, which have sucked a lot of blood from the market, knocked down the copycats, and dragged down BTC;

It is not necessarily Binance’s fault, but the project party and the corresponding investors are unethical!

How to solve it, it’s very simple - break-even margin!

Plan:
1. All new projects listed on Binance need to pay 10 million USD + 20 million USD worth of tokens to Binance as a deposit;
2. The project party promises that the coin price will not break the anchor price within 30 days of the listing date;
3. If the anchor price is broken, the token will be removed from the shelves, and Binance will use the deposit to compensate the lost users;
4. After 30 days, Binance will refund the deposit, and the market will freely price the token according to the supply and demand relationship;
5. Conservative Binance users will only participate in transactions in the first 30 days, and their interests are guaranteed; aggressive Binance users who want to participate in transactions after 30 days will be responsible for their own profits and losses; the project party will use its own strength and marketing capabilities to support the buying after 30 days;
6. The project party can't afford 10 million USD? If you can't even raise this money, don't go to Binance;

History will not repeat itself, but it always rhymes! --Hash Capitulation signal appears again!

Based on my practice in the big cycle from 2019 to 2024, I concluded:

1. Every time this signal appears during the bull market, it is an excellent time to buy the bottom!

2. Before and after the halving, when this signal appears, it is the most cost-effective moment!

3. This signal allowed me to buy the bottom of 7,000 $BTC and 9,000 BTC in 2020;

4. This signal allowed me to buy the bottom of 16K and 28K BTC in 2023;

5. If this signal appears after BTC halving, it indicates that the main bull market uptrend will start within 1-2 months! So this is the last high-cost-effective opportunity to get on the bus before the main uptrend!

Countermeasures:

1. Fans who have been with me in the spot at 42K-64K and opened a 0.5x coin-based long order at 63K, hold the handrails and don’t get off the bus!

2. For new followers who have not yet opened a position, you can open a 20% position now, and then invest in the currencies I mentioned within 2 months. The spot position must be fully opened within two months! Let us wait for the arrival of the violent bull market!

The W bottom predicted 6 days ago has been effectively broken, $BTC is expected to be 71K;

The several altcoins recommended 16 hours ago have a gratifying rise! Congratulations to the fans who followed!
After a look, after BTC rose, there were many hindsight experts on Twitter. They were greedy when it rose, and sold their stocks when it fell. They led the fans into the ditch. It was really pitiful!
You can review my tweets for a month, and the difference is obvious!

BTC has clearly not been a safe-haven asset, but an amplified risk asset. Trading must focus on reflexivity!

Trading emotions, trading bubbles, letting go of faith, and timely escaping the top are the core of cross-cycle profits!

When the storm comes, I will provide signals to my loyal fans.

Since January, 70% of the spot positions are 42K, 20% of the spot positions are added to 60K, and the full spot positions are 64K on the day of half-price reduction! Today's breakthrough, 5 hours ago, the right side 63K opened a 0.5x $BTC coin-based long order; now it is 65K!

Next, you can lie flat and enjoy the bull market feast steadily! Have you followed it?

A fan asked, are there any cottages that can be bought now?

1. $SOL , upgraded on the 27th, rich in local dogs#; the current price is 142 and can be bought;

2. $CHZ , sports leader, European Cup and Olympic Games are good; the current price is 0.11 and can be bought;

3. $ETC , production reduction in mid-June; the current price is 25.4 and can be bought;

The number of whales on the chain has decreased, but the smart money on the chain has taken advantage of this correction to actively increase positions. The big drop on No. 3 is deleveraging, and the No. 4 rebounds strongly. The small pin this morning has completed the second test. Now we are cautiously bullish, and we can add appropriate spot positions; if before No. 10, #BTC spot #ETF passes, then BTC will rise. It will then pull back to 48,000; if the ETF will be delayed again before the 10th, BTC will fall back to the range of 38,000-40,000, and you can buy boldly. Always with tears in my eyes, always bullish on BTC!

Looking at the two eldest brothers Lao Wang and Lao Kong’s outlook for 2024, I will also give you my top 10 predictions for 2024:

1. No more #BTC below 35,000;
2. SEC passed Bitcoin spot ETF between January and March;
3. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the first time on May 1;
4. #BTC will reach the price range of 90,000-100,000 by the end of 2024;
5. BTC market share peaked at around 57%;
6. #ETH At the end of 2024, the price will be around 5,000;
7. The BTC ecology is booming, and the Summer of Inscription will officially arrive;
8.#ORDIand#SATsare in the top 30 in market capitalization, and $Rats is in the top 50 in market capitalization;
9. #SOL’s market value rose to third place;
10. #Depin, #AI The track is accelerating and opportunities are emerging;

There was a lot of useful information in the meeting of the British Parliament. We discussed how the central bank can combine cryptocurrency and the Web3.0 industry, how the UK can lead the world in central bank digital currency, etc. Sir, congressmen and I introduced how to invest in Bitcoin. Haha, Web3.0 will definitely form a prairie fire!

#BTC The third indicator for successful top escape: 28-day Market Realized Gradient, the market has realized the slope. This indicator predicts two stage tops of 57K and 65K.

#BTC Top escape indicator 2: Short term holder PnL, when the profits of short-term currency holders are skyrocketing, there is a huge demand for a correction. This indicator also warned me of the two tops in April and October of 21;

#BTC 成功逃顶指标二： Short term holder PnL, 短期持币者利润暴走时，有很大的回调需求，这个指标也向我警示了21年4月，10月的两个顶部；

Top escape indicator 1: Realized Pofit. As shown in the figure, when this indicator exceeds 5BUSD, BTC reaches periodic peak. It predicted two big peaks in April and November of 2021;

21年11月， #BTC 成功逃顶指标一： Realized Pofit，如下图所示，当该指标超过5BUSD时，BTC阶段性见顶。它预告了21年4月，11月的两个大顶；

#BTC Bottom-buying indicator 3: Realized Price, which is the Realized Cap divided by the current supply. The realized price of BTC reflects the cost of BTC to a certain extent. When the price deviates from the cost, and when the miners of the BTC mine I invested in are complaining, it is a good time to invest in BTC. The above three indicators allowed me to build a 50% BTC position when the market panicked;

16K成功抄底 #BTC 指标三：Realized Price，BTC实现价格一定程度反馈了BTC的成本，当价格偏离了成本，当我投资的BTC矿产的矿工叫苦连天时，是定投BTC的好时候,上面这三个指标让我在市场恐慌时，建了五成BTC仓位.