When will the selling pressure from Mentougou be exhausted? Is the death knell of short sellers about to ring?

I haven’t tweeted for a few days, and a large group of KOLs have started short selling again; they probably won’t stop until they lose all their fans.

The selling pressure from Mentougou is what everyone is concerned about at present. Many people are worried that it will be like when the German government sold the currency, and $BTC will be smashed to the ground. Let me analyze it below:

1. When will the selling pressure from Mentougou be exhausted?

1. On July 16, the Mentougou address began to transfer out; $BTC fell a little;

2. So far, half of the complainants have been paid; $BTC fluctuated in the range of 63-65K;

3. The remaining big heads are in Kraken, and Kraken promised to pay them within 1-2 weeks, that is, to pay them within next week;

Kraken received 45,000 BTC; according to the internal community survey of Mentougou victims, in view of the large number of positive factors in the future, it is expected that only about 30% will be sold after receiving them;

Next, Kraken's operations and balance changes can also be seen on the chain (as shown below). If there are any abnormalities, I will update you again.

Summary: Driven by positive factors and continued net inflows of ETFs, the selling pressure of Mentougou is loud but small, and the impact is not great, and the negative factors will be fully paid out next week.

2. Is the death knell of the shorts about to ring? The last chance to run away?

1. The negative news of Mentougou will be realized next week;

2. Ethereum ETF is expected to start trading next Tuesday; the selling pressure of Grayscale Trust is expected to be absorbed by other ETFs;

3. The correction of US stocks is a seasonal correction in the election year, and it is expected to be adjusted and resume rising at the end of July, that is, next week;

4. On July 26, PCE data is expected to be positive, which will boost risky assets;

5. On July 27, Trump participated in the#BTC2024conference and spoke; Trump’s current influence and ability to bring orders are limitless!

6. At the September Federal Reserve meeting, the market predicts a 101% probability of a rate cut.

Summary: Before July 26, it is the last chance for short sellers to run away, otherwise it will be a liquidation.

3. Countermeasures:

1. Do not short BTC;

2. If Kraken's selling pressure brings a small correction, you can go long in the 60-62K range; don't be afraid of the 58.6K gap;

3. If Grayscale Trust brings selling pressure after the Ethereum ETF goes online, you should accumulate $ETH positions in the golden pit;

3. For new fans who have not followed us before and fully invested in spot at 55K, it is recommended to fully invest in spot at the end of July, and refer to my previous tweets for the currency ratio.